stuffradio Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Not too much longer until we're looking at the CMC snow output now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted August 30, 2017 Report Share Posted August 30, 2017 Drum roll................................................................. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 31, 2017 Report Share Posted August 31, 2017 Not too much longer until we're looking at the CMC snow output now!NH snowcover extent has started the season above average by almost +2SDs, thanks to a relatively cloudy, chilly summer in the high latitudes. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Starting off with a refreshing 50* here this morning. Clear as can be. Longer night should mean more 40s at night soon. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 It's September, which means PNW people who are not accustomed to hot, sunny weather will soon get the endless cloudy, drizzly, or rainy days they have all been longing for. Lots to look forward to. Funny how a person in Phoenix thinks 90 is cool and a person in Minneapolis thinks 50 degrees is shorts and sandals weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 It's September, which means PNW people who are not accustomed to hot, sunny weather will soon get the endless cloudy, drizzly, or rainy days they have all been longing for. Lots to look forward to. Funny how a person in Phoenix thinks 90 is cool and a person in Minneapolis thinks 50 degrees is shorts and sandals weather. Lots of shorts and sandals break out here when it reaches the mid 40's come spring time even with snow still on the ground. It's all relative. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looking like the all-time September record high may be challenged here early next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looking like the all-time September record high may be challenged here early next week.You're late to the party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 49.6 this morning. Hard to believe it'll be near 100 so much next week. I'm over the heat. Trying to soak in the blue skies today. The smoke makes the heat much much worse IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 You're late to the party.I'm well known for being late among family and friends. Shawnigan lakes September record is 92F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looking like the all-time September record high may be challenged here early next week. Can September come through where June and August fell short? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again.Record warmest September at PDX and record coldest in Bozeman, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again. No guarantee it will be as sustained as the first 10 days of August. Odds are, it won't. Latest GFS trends don't think so. Even with a few days to start the month putting up huge anomalies, there's plenty of time for things to change. Sep 1988 ended up barely above normal. Sep 1944 was quite warm, but not even as warm as the previous September and well short of the record today. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z GFS shows a fairly promising setup for convection later next week, especially for OR. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z GFS shows a fairly promising setup for convection later next week, especially for OR. Big trough as well... within 10 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Record warmest September at PDX and record coldest in Bozeman, right? I wish... It was a hot end of the month here and this weekend it continues before cooling off somewhat. I still have plenty of family in Portland so I feel for you guys while also feeling lucky that we'll get a cool NW flow starting Monday. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Big trough as well... within 10 days. About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10. There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 No guarantee it will be as sustained as the first 10 days of August. Odds are, it won't. Latest GFS trends don't think so. Even with a few days to start the month putting up huge anomalies, there's plenty of time for things to change. Sep 1988 ended up barely above normal. Sep 1944 was quite warm, but not even as warm as the previous September and well short of the record today. Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August. Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no". Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August. Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".You make some points. But this is all pretty preliminary. It's the 1st. Maybe we can be having this discussion in a couple weeks but right now it comes off a little sensationalistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August. Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no". But they'll also probably see overall temps 3-4 degrees colder, at least the hottest days. I would put money against a record month (even with PDX putting up record months much easier thanks in part to UHI increase). Let's call Vegas. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 You make some points. But this is all pretty preliminary. It's the 1st. Maybe we can be having this discussion in a couple weeks but right now it comes off a little sensationalistic. Of course it's preliminary... I wasn't aware that long range forecasts were now considered "sensationalism". Lots of people were having discussions of a record warm August early in the month as well so it's not like it's not unreasonable to talk about on the 1st when clearly the models support it through the first half of the month. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10. There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS. 12Z GEM completely agrees with the GFS: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 12Z GEM completely agrees with the GFS: Thank the Lord. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this.Maybe it's onto something but it has been an outlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 But they'll also probably see overall temps 3-4 degrees colder, at least the hottest days. I would put money against a record month (even with PDX putting up record months much easier thanks in part to UHI increase). Let's call Vegas. I'll settle for circling back to this page on the 30th! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Of course it's preliminary... I wasn't aware that long range forecasts were now considered "sensationalism". Lots of people were having discussions of a record warm August early in the month as well so it's not like it's not unreasonable to talk about on the 1st when clearly the models support it through the first half of the month.Sorry, not trying to go after you. Not all models support the warmth continuing for the entire first half of the month. Right now they seem to be in two camps. That's important to consider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Sorry, not trying to go after you. Not all models support the warmth continuing for the entire first half of the month. Right now they seem to be in two camps. That's important to consider. Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53) Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53) Screen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png I can handle upper 70s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53) Screen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.pngThat actually doesn't look as bad as I thought it would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 That actually doesn't look as bad as I thought it would. Operational has been way off in loopyland, showing upper 90's through the 10th. It's complete trash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this. I noticed that too. That definitely wasn't in the cards earlier this year. Cold pool off the coast... 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 I noticed that too. That definitely wasn't in the cards earlier this year. Cold pool off the coast... Still showing that -PDO too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Still showing that -PDO too. Wet signal showing up. On top of cool 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Both the 12Z GFS & NAM, as well as the official NWS forecast are only calling for mid 90's tomorrow. I'm inclined to agree with them. No offshore flow and 25C @ 850 might only mean 95-96 degrees or so, even though the NAM still wants to build 594dm heights over us by tomorrow afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro's blinked next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Look out South Carolina and Georgia! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro's blinked next week.It did. Still seems to want to keep the ridge nearby a lot longer than the GFS or Canadian, though. Struggling with how to phase the low down off the California coast with the offshore trough as the pattern starts to progress. That sort of setup is a classic Euro blind spot in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Look out South Carolina and Georgia!Parade of aquatic monsters. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zpssbn9h3hm.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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