Deweydog Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 10 years ago right now there were some freakishly cold model runs floating around. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 You clearly do not get it... It is about "preferance" not just about "cold". Your preferance is obviously cold and that is fine. Enjoy! I am sure you will have amazing stories and memories to reflect on. While others will not. moving on... And my preference is snow and this cold is waisted to my preference! Thanks. No, that's not it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Good lord...Amen... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah that game was ridiculous. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah that game was ridiculous. Have to say... I was torn but happy that Oregon won. I hate Florida State and Jameis Winston... and even though I normally hate Oregon they are representing the Pac-12 and its really hard not to like Mariotta. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I would agree with that assessment. Its January 1st though. People can stand to wait a couple months before whining about this failed winter. Let it end first. Given how January is now it's hard to have faith in the rest of the month. I think it's pretty likely we get one more window for troughing that could deliver snow. Even in Ninos we generally have that after this point. Only 3 years until our next 8-9 winter though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 10 years ago right now there were some freakishly cold model runs floating around.Has it really been 10 years. Ouch. I'm feeling old. 29f currently. Looks like it might snow here this weekend. Then it will rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 "preferance" ... my preference is snow .... and this cold is waisted ...... As I see what you're saying, your "slant" is that with this season having been playing out to this point appearing to be somewhat certainly, an either or, cold or snow type one, you'd certainly much rather have some snow, who needs or wants, just cold. — Takes all kinds of course, first. But, as I see things, the best hope more universal would certainly be for a decent mix of the two. This first with looking at the still present draught conditions and circumstance more south, along with just a hope if more general for some "snow in the mountains" more fully north and south. This said, and where considering your both slant and preference, hopefully we / all others interested in a good mix of both more, can allow for some amount of more specific hope for cold if with or without snow, while also hoping to see a pattern setup and transition more over to our liking. 2 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I just don't buy the argument that cold is "wasted" if it doesn't snow. Cold airmasses are impressive in their own right. Snow is fickle. Ephemeral. Too many stars need to align for snow to happen in Portland or Seattle. So if it doesn't happen, that shouldn't be cause for any grief. Not if you're looking at it rationally anyway...which I think may be the real issue with a lot of people. It shouldn't be THIS hard to get snow here. I can't recall ever seeing so little snow with so many cold waves (Jan 2013 through present). 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 - .. What I'm seeing more seasonally, pattern wise, and main cold wise—my main interest, if not where it ends up more in particularly—is, that with looking at the last few years, west to east more, there's been plenty of cold more primary north looked at more generally—e.g. the polar vortex last, and more this year with this more recent even still present gut of more primary cold north of the Canadian borden more east, some other views. And with this it's more the other main element of pattern, i.e. just where and when this more abundant cold "hits" or might, more south, being more important. — If you take just last year set with this year, more primary cold has been "based", more north and where considering its main stores, a bit more west certainly. And with this, the potential that we've seen for retrograde. Of course, or at least where considering snow here a bit more south, an excellent element main pattern wise, lending to the potential for even more "low-land" snow. Significant cold drops SW out over the Pacific, and so guides decent moisture more inland, very well. But this current more peculiar type of retrograde inclusive pattering has been and odd one. More gradual and more big and bold, and so rather than setting up to guide moisture more, more having blocked its pathway. Related, generally. - http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=59845 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Went to the top of Mailbox peak near North Bend today. Had an awesome view of Downtown Seattle, Bellevue, and North Bend. 4,000 feet of elevation gain in 4 miles. Hit the summit at sunrise. It was cold at the summit. Thought I would share these with you guys. http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1558727226/@@images/dfe9793d-a525-4dc9-ade7-3bd5f121cc7f.jpeg http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1563305287/@@images/9f27ec3e-c216-46db-bb44-5664f3d76e3c.jpeg http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/image.2015-01-01.1561336136/@@images/2c089ed7-6433-4d13-9896-0a28820917bc.jpeg 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z? Same? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z? Same?Same what? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z? Same?Looks a shade milder for sunday morning to me. Still showing some snow up near the Canadian border on the WRF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.72.0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 After Mondays system clears, the first half of January is looking like it could be a total snoozefest on the GFS. Mild too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 After Mondays system clears, the first half of January is looking like it could be a total snoozefest on the GFS. Mild too. Temps approaching 60 once again by Tuesday down here. That's becoming a once every couple of weeks occurrence this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Temps approaching 60 once again by Tuesday down here. That's becoming a once every couple of weeks occurrence this winter.Did she say yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Did she say yes? Of course. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Of course. Congratulations man!! Thats fantastic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Congratulations man!! Thats fantastic. Thank you! I guess I should have updated everybody. I forget you aren't all my friends on facebook. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Of course. Yahh! Way to go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Congrats Jesse. Maybe a little snow for Puget Sound Saturday night? A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHTINTO SUNDAY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE 00Z NAM12 AND GFS -BOTH THEPARALLEL AND OPERATIONAL RUNS - DRAW ENOUGH COOL AIR IN FROM THEEAST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE EVAPORATIVECOOLING AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS NEAR 1300 M. THIS IS MARGINALLYCOLD ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME SNOWFLAKES TO THE LOWLANDS BEFORE WARMADVECTION TAKES OVER AND DOMINATES. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Maybe weenies do, but most knowledgable folks know how things work. We don't need a -AO or -NAO to get major cold here. In fact, our biggest blasts in recent decades have occurred under strong +NAOs. We also don't need a -EPO, as long as we have a legitimate -AO and/or a -NAO to go along with it. On the other hand, the PNW essentially requires a -EPO to score a blast.I tend to agree on that point...near impossible to get the polar jet to dive south west of the Rockies without some kind of amplified ridge/block over Alaska or Bering Sea/Dateline. Meanwhile across the east a rather nondescript ridge out west with a trough in Alaska can get the job done if NAO/AO are favorable. A lack of all three will generally produce coast to coast warmth or at least normal temps in zonal flow. Geography isn't on our side in the PNW w.r.t. arctic intrusions, we need the upper level support. Geography favors the eastern US much more as predominant wintertime flow introduces continental airmasses frequently. That is mostly why the east coast scores dozens of times for every one time the PNW scores. That and the PV tends to sit over Hudson Bay-Baffin Island. 3 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 It shouldn't be THIS hard to get snow here. I can't recall ever seeing so little snow with so many cold waves (Jan 2013 through present).Things will even out eventually. If it can still get cold, it can still snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Absolutely horrendous GFS run with tropical forcing in a favorable position for us. We just cannot win in the month of January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I tend to agree on that point...near impossible to get the polar jet to dive south west of the Rockies without some kind of amplified ridge/block over Alaska or Bering Sea/Dateline. Meanwhile across the east a rather nondescript ridge out west with a trough in Alaska can get the job done if NAO/AO are favorable. A lack of all three will generally produce coast to coast warmth or at least normal temps in zonal flow. Geography isn't on our side in the PNW w.r.t. arctic intrusions, we need the upper level support. Geography favors the eastern US much more as predominant wintertime flow introduces continental airmasses frequently. That is mostly why the east coast scores dozens of times for every one time the PNW scores. That and the PV tends to sit over Hudson Bay-Baffin Island. I think you overstate how much more favorably positioned the Eastern US is. Much of the Western US is just as cold as the Eastern US. The Western lowlands are only a tiny fraction of the West. In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 FWIW the GFS operational is pretty much alone in keeping the Eastern US cold during week two. Other models and the GFS ensemble show pretty much the entire country being mild. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 FWIW the GFS operational is pretty much alone in keeping the Eastern US cold during week two. Other models and the GFS ensemble show pretty much the entire country being mild.Perhaps we will see something by the tail end of the month. Maybe a Jan 1996 repeat. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 More interesting than the gfs.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015010200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 No doubt the GFS is having serious issues. The analog composites are a full 180 degrees out of phase from what they were less than two days ago and the correlation scores are horrible. I doubt the pattern will be as hideous as what the operational GFS is showing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think you overstate how much more favorably positioned the Eastern US is. Much of the Western US is just as cold as the Eastern US. The Western lowlands are only a tiny fraction of the West. In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though. Agreed. It goes way beyond bad luck or climo at this point. Compare Missoula's January temp anomalies in the last 20 years to Boston. Missoula is way east of the Cascades and they exhibit the same trends as western WA/OR. Missoulahttp://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?mt5745 Bostonhttp://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ma0770 Missoula's last significantly cold January was in 1993 and their last prior to that was in 1980. Their 1981-2010 January mean was over 3 degrees higher than their 1961-90 mean. Boston on the other hand at roughly the same latitude has seen numerous cold Januaries since the early 1980s. Their coldest January on record occurred in 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though. What is causing this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I think you overstate how much more favorably positioned the Eastern US is. Much of the Western US is just as cold as the Eastern US. The Western lowlands are only a tiny fraction of the West. In recent years the West has certainly not had as many anomalously cold winters as the East though. The mountainous terrain out west actually forces a semi permanent Eastern U.S. trough (conservation of angular momentum) in the absolute height fields. The only reason parts of the West are "colder" in the means is due to elevation/topography. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro weeklies are ugly for the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 FWIW the GFS operational is pretty much alone in keeping the Eastern US cold during week two. Other models and the GFS ensemble show pretty much the entire country being mild.Any coast to coast torch will probably be transitory at best. The East will be favored once we re-establish the Aleutian low/+PNA. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 No doubt the GFS is having serious issues. The analog composites are a full 180 degrees out of phase from what they were less than two days ago and the correlation scores are horrible. I doubt the pattern will be as hideous as what the operational GFS is showing.I'm expecting a +PNA for the 2nd half of January. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 Much warmer night due to some cloud cover, currently 28 degrees. My thinking is we still have a shot by even mid January to see something good, and even if we don't I remember many a Febuary that was pretty darn good in the past. Lots of winter to go!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 The East will be favored once we re-establish the Aleutian low/+PNA. No it won't. 1 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2015 Report Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm expecting a +PNA for the 2nd half of January. You're probably right we lose no matter what in January. I just want spring to be here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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