April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we are in offshore flow with unseasonably cold 850s as we get into the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.  A chance to put up some really impressive numbers with that if we get the right combination of cloud cover during the day and clearing at night.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Difference is this one will likely transition from cold troughing to +EPO/stormy zonal flow, which is basically the opposite of a trough-to-ridge situation.

It appears there could be a brief ridge in there though.

[Skagit Weather]

45F currently after a low of 37F. May have had a touch of chunky rain last night, but not any that remained by the time I was up. It would be pretty astounding to see PDX get buried during the next couple of days, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Phishy Wx]

43 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Are we approaching Easter or Christmas?

New Years Eve

[Tyler Mode]

38 under a hail shower...38 on April 10th, 2 in the afternoon, who would have thought?

[NWbyNW]

These are from KING5 News.  Both in reference to Monday snowfall around the Puget Sound and Washington.

[Outpost54]

18z NBM is excellent for Portland. This is typically the most conservative model output you're ever going to find, too, given its nature. This had been showing 0 snow around Portland until today's runs.

[Outpost54]

Canadians being nice to Portland as well

[Blizzard777]

Enjoyed the trip home….multiple mixed precipitation showers with one very long hailstorm in Olympia area. 

Temps 48 without precipitation 

Temps 37* under the showers

Federal Way mostly cloudy with sun breaks and 47* 

[Outpost54]

How long do u guys thing Portland will have snow cover from this???? Until May or so?????

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

How long do u guys thing Portland will have snow cover from this???? Until May or so?????

I'll probably be skiing down my street through June at least. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

How long do u guys thing Portland will have snow cover from this???? Until May or so?????

Probably will be around longer than you’ll be on this forum. 

[Outpost54]

Also I've seen some mention of the cold on Thursday, but I feel like we've been overlooking the growing snow threat over that period, too. This map is literally just for Wednesday and Thursday. Doesn't include anything that falls tonight into tomorrow. Would be historic.

[FroYoBro]

45 degrees with rain starting up again. Definitely not hitting 50 today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The drive up to Tangent has had some much-needed rain 45F. Really hope this can help the wildfire situation this summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The drive up to Tangent has had some much-needed rain 45F. Really hope this can help the wildfire situation this summer.

Was in the mid valley earlier. Saw a cold core funnel. 

[FroYoBro]

Getting some hail and the temperature is dropping nicely. 

[Requiem]

GFS is just mwah for the Portland metro. Tad south of last run meaning quite a bit more snow.

[Perturbed Member]

The 18z GFS is known for being the most reliable run of the day right?

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They issued a special weather statement for here lol. They think it has a small probability of snow in this location, giving it like a 15% chance haha! Our conditions are way different than where our NWS office is.

Well at least now you're not the only person between two forecasting offices smack in the middle.

Jackson's doppler radar is better positioned for storm tracking here, but my forecasts and alerts are issued by Charleston, WV. lol 

I bet it stinks looking at AFD's from Medford and Portland. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z GRAF holding pretty steady. Shows PDX basically going isothermal with surface at 33F and really solid precip rate. Goes for ~6 inches overnight. 

[FroYoBro]

It will be fun to see how snowy this cam will be tomorrow morning. Just starting to stick there now. 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

What planet are you on? I pointed out that someone was obviously lying about having a disability that they clearly do not, as I was offended on behalf of my own family members who DO have that exact disability. This is ridiculous.

I’ve had my skull cut into twice and I have an RNS on my left temporal lobe, with some nodes stuck down deeper into it where my language and math are processed, and whatever is happening has caused me convulsions while I’m conscious since I was 3.

I came to peace knowing that my last moments alive might be joking around with anesthesiologists.

The stimulator works somewhat, but I still have a lot of seizures and memory problems, as well as a general extreme sadness because of my life before 2017. 

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

The 18z GFS is known for being the most reliable run of the day right?

Well, I had my doubts, but I mean it can't be wrong with these snow totals...

[seattleweatherguy]

Hailing here.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Well, I had my doubts, but I mean it can't be wrong with these snow totals...

If Portland doesn't get at least 49/50th of these totals I will cry and throw things 

[Outpost54]

Even the kuchera ratio on the 18z GFS has over a foot at PDX by tomorrow morning. What the hell lmfao

[The Blob]

Whet outside right now.

[Deweydog]

I’m skeptical of the 28 inches at Tillamook.

There, I said it.

[Outpost54]

Another noteworthy change here is that the GFS now shows most of the Portland area just kissing the freezing mark while all this snow is falling. Previously it had been putting up all these crazy snowfall amounts with temperatures in the mid 30s. This is significant as it makes the idea of heavy accumulations much more plausible if it is actually 32 degrees while this is happening.

[MossMan]

Hailing. 39. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Outpost54 said:

Another noteworthy change here is that the GFS now shows most of the Portland area just kissing the freezing mark while all this snow is falling. Previously it had been putting up all these crazy snowfall amounts with temperatures in the mid 30s. This is significant as it makes the idea of heavy accumulations much more plausible if it is actually 32 degrees while this is happening.

That is Monday night at 11 p.m.    

Precip is over by then.

[Outpost54]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is Monday night at 11 p.m.    

Precip is over by then.

You're over.

[TT-SEA]

But it actually shows 32 tomorrow morning during the peak of the precip as well.

[MossMan]

Now it’s turning to more of a hail/snow mix. 

[Outpost54]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is Monday night at 11 p.m.    

Precip is over by then.

Also, that's just the 24 hour low ending on that period. It's not Monday night at 11pm, necessarily. It does show it being 32 during prime time on Monday morning. This is 5am Monday.

[MWG]

I think we are in January not April 

 

[Perturbed Member]

GFS sounding looks good. 32F. Euro and GRAF have more modest accumulation due to 33-34F surface temps.  

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

Also, that's just the 24 hour low ending on that period. It's not Monday night at 11pm, necessarily. It does show it being 32 during prime time on Monday morning. This is 5am Monday.

See my map above... that is not a max or min and it shows 32 at 6 a.m. tomorrow morning.    You can go hour by hour on WB maps.    It's all good.    It's exactly what you said.

[Perturbed Member]

The low is currently near 46N/134W making
its way over a broad area of high pressure set up across the east,
central Pacific. This low is dragging a substantial amount moisture,
about 180% of normal, within its southwest quadrant out of the
subtropical Pacific. Total precipitable water from both the 12Z NAM
and GFS are matching well with those observed in polar orbiting
satellites. Models are coming into better agreement with each other
with regards to the track of the low with the 12Z deterministic
models, GFS, NAM, and CMC, as well as high resolution guidance
suggesting it will move onshore over Lincoln City.