June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Spring “climo” was warm/dry over the last decade as well. If we’d used that argument to predict this spring it would have been dead wrong.

How many solidly cool/wet La Niña springs have gone onto feature warm/dry summers up there? I can’t find any matches, though I’m sure it’s happened at some point over the last millennium.

A warm summer is extremely unlikely.    Although I still think July and August might end up drier than normal... maybe September too.     And June might end up wet enough to guarantee a wet JJA period.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Spring “climo” was warm/dry over the last decade as well. If we’d used that argument to predict this spring it would have been dead wrong.

How many solidly cool/wet La Niña springs have gone onto feature warm/dry summers up there? I can’t find any matches, though I’m sure it’s happened at some point over the last millennium.

1967 was close, but that wasn't exactly a full formed Nina at that point.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A warm summer is extremely unlikely.    Although I still think July and August might end up drier than normal... maybe September too.     And June might end up wet enough to guarantee a wet JJA period.

How many cool/wet La Niña springs/early summers were followed by dry Julys?

Cool/wet signal clearly fades during the second half of summer during La Niña, but there’s no real “dry” signal in July. At least none that I can see.

[Phil]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

1967 was close, but that wasn't exactly a full formed Nina at that point.

I think that spring also had transient bouts of stout ridging/+TNH, which this year has lacked.

[Tyler Mode]

Still waiting for my elusive first 80+. Average is May 5th...my latest WAS June 4th.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think that spring also had transient bouts of stout ridging/+TNH, which this year has lacked.

Was more of a front loaded cool spring. March 1967 was much cooler/wetter than this year, while May was definitely ridgier/drier.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

How many cool/wet La Niña springs/early summers were followed by dry Julys?

Cool/wet signal clearly fades during the second half of summer during La Niña, but there’s no real “dry” signal in July. At least none that I can see.

1988 is an example.

 

[MossMan]

Well it will be nothing like last year when we were over there around this time but we will take what we can get. Last year we were in the 90’s each day with a light breeze on the Columbia and it was AMAZING! 

[TT-SEA]

SEA needs just .89 over the 82 days to lock up a wetter than normal summer (JJA).

Might get half of that later today! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Why tf they let u graduate if u aren’t done 

I think it's not too uncommon to let someone walk if they are just shy of meeting requirements.  They aren't an official graduate until they satisfy the requirements, but at least they can do the ceremony and not wait 6 months to a whole year for the next ceremony.

 

I was kinda surprised, my son finished his finals around May 12th, went through the graduation ceremony May 13th, but it was not until last week that got an e-mail last week letting him know that he had officially completed all of the degree requirements and could be considered a "graduate."  I can't believe it took a month to figure that out.

Can you imagine...finish your last final, walk, then a month later "OOPS!  YOU FORGOT A CLASS!!!"  That would suck!

[bainbridgekid]

Yesterday was a VERY odd day for Seattle. 

Not only was it their 11th wettest June day ever with 1.03" but the high of 60 occurred at both midnight Monday night and 11:59PM Tuesday night and the low of 54 occurred in the middle of the afternoon at 2 PM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Checking out the 12z ensembles, the GFS operational is completely on its own for next weekend. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Checking out the 12z ensembles, the GFS operational is completely on its own for next weekend. 

Of course it is. Anyone with eyes can look at that GFS cutoff solution and see it’s bullsh*t.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Checking out the 12z ensembles, the GFS operational is completely on its own for next weekend. 

That Father's Day thunderstorm complex would be fun, though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Yesterday was a VERY odd day for Seattle. 

Not only was it their 11th wettest June day ever with 1.03" but the high of 60 occurred at both midnight Monday night and 11:59PM Tuesday night and the low of 54 occurred in the middle of the afternoon at 2 PM.

Not just for Seattle, either.

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/hourly_data_e.html?StationID=51442&Month=6&Day=9&Year=2022&timeframe=1&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022

[TacomaWaWx]

It could rain like 4 feet on January 1st then not rain the rest of the year and tim would be like “it was a wetter than normal year”. 

[FroYoBro]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Got back from PHX last night. It was nearly half the temp when I landed than when I took off.

110 degrees is very hot BUT I've learned that if you are wearing appropriate clothing and guzzling water it isn't too bad to just stand around in. I did some plane spotting from the top of the PHX parking garage (much better vantage point that the SEA garage) for about an hour for two straight days and, yeah I was sweating, but I think I can handle it okay. Air conditioning is very nice.

We've chosen all the design features for our house and I got to see our lot. Very exciting stuff!

 

Moving to Arizona before the mass migration out of the desert SW.

[TacomaWaWx]

Have been getting some light drizzle at times but nothing measurable yet. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It could rain like 4 feet on January 1st then not rain the rest of the year and tim would be like “it was a wetter than normal year”. 

Technically true.   

But no... I would not say that.    And there is absolutely no question that it has been unusually persistently wet since last September and much wetter than normal as well.   Except for a couple weeks in the middle of winter which is now considered a massive dry spell.  

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Technically true.   

But no... I would not say that.    And there is absolutely no question that it has been unusually persistently wet since last September and much wetter than normal as well.   Except for a couple weeks in the middle of winter which is now considered a massive dry spell.  

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Pretty sure.   

[TT-SEA]

Hot and steamy here with some sun breaks... all the way up to 64 now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is much further south with the moisture plume this afternoon than some of the other models. Looks damp. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just time enough to pack up and say goodbyes.  

 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Tyler Mode said:

Still waiting for my elusive first 80+. Average is May 5th...my latest WAS June 4th.

Hillsboro hasn't hit higher than 77 degrees yet, and a station near me hasn't hit higher than 79 degrees.

[Doinko]

The record for latest 80 in Hillsboro is June 12th (2010), so we should easily beat that.

[FroYoBro]

Feeling a little muggy out there right now. Haven’t had anymore rain since I’ve been awake and it’s up to 67 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a tremendous blessing for the dryland wheat farmers of North Central Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the GEM it is raining by Thursday morning. 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Feeling a little muggy out there right now. Haven’t had anymore rain since I’ve been awake and it’s up to 67 degrees. 

Looks like the radar is starting to fill in again.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, jakerepp said:

110 degrees is very hot BUT I've learned that if you are wearing appropriate clothing and guzzling water it isn't too bad to just stand around in. I did some plane spotting from the top of the PHX parking garage (much better vantage point that the SEA garage) for about an hour for two straight days and, yeah I was sweating, but I think I can handle it okay. Air conditioning is very nice.

Better thee than me. Good luck in AZ!

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What a tremendous blessing for the dryland wheat farmers of North Central Oregon. 

They probably want heat more than rain now. Heading is way behind last year

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

They probably want heat more than rain now. Heading is way behind last year

They are also still in extreme drought though over there. 

[bainbridgekid]

GFS took a huge swing to warmer for next weekend. Thicknesses on yesterday's runs were sub 540 and they're around 576 on the 12z today. Would make the difference between highs maybe in the upper 50's and to near 100 at the Gorge where I'll be at Beyond Wonderland. I'll gladly take something in the middle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

GFS took a huge swing to warmer for next weekend. Thicknesses on yesterday's runs were sub 540 and they're around 576 on the 12z today. Would make the difference between highs maybe in the upper 50's and to near 100 at the Gorge where I'll be at Beyond Wonderland. I'll gladly take something in the middle.

I looked up the lineup... I don't think I have ever heard of any of the artists performing. Maybe Alesso, sounds somewhat familiar. I used to be up on that sort of thing, but since the pandemic I aged about 30 years. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks a little more cut-off later next week... nothing like the GFS of course.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... this is garden friendly weather.    Things have seemingly doubled in the last few days.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF actually ends up a little less cut off late in the week... looks quite wet for both sides of the mountains by the weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... this is garden friendly weather.    Things have seemingly doubled in the last few days.

The June heatwave last year was the best thing that ever happened to my garden. My in laws kept it well watered and that thing exploded in the week we were gone. 

[FroYoBro]

36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like the radar is starting to fill in again.

Yep, already getting some nice rain to ease the tension in the air.