Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Eerily similar progression to June 2021 overall. Please be wrong. 1 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Seven months ago right now we were seeing runs which had us to worrying about cold weather damage to infrastructure. Dynamic! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: Eerily similar progression to June 2021 overall. Please be wrong. Was just going to say but didn't want to say... 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kayla said: 30C @850mb...110F not out of the questions with that. Yeah... this is a straight up terrible run. Really frustrating that we are within a week and looking at these ridiculous temps again. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 At some point we probably need to start getting used to this. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Eerily similar progression to June 2021 overall. Please be wrong. From a teleconnection standpoint, we’d need to see the Aleutian cyclone action dig quite a bit further south. None of the models have shown that as of yet. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Pretty sad to be actively rooting for this as the "cool" outcome. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 I wonder if the region’s vegetation will be able to handle another widespread scorching event a second year in a row. Feels like a nightmare. 4 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 GEM would give the Willamette Valley 3 days of highs in the 100-103 range. Probably the best case scenario at this point. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Ughhh, this is a HORRIBLE run. Just doesn't budge. 2 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Well Tim and Randy got their wish. 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 A run like this makes me want to go somewhere else. Not sure where since the whole globe is on fire. 3 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 I need someone to blame. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well Tim and Randy got their wish. Sort of feeling sick to my stomach right now. Never want to experience an event like last June again. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: A run like this makes me want to go somewhere else. Not sure where since the whole globe is on fire. Yeah, sad fact is we still have it comparatively pretty good. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah, sad fact is we still have it comparatively pretty good. This spring though 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 What was the leadup like to the June 2022 heatwave? Did the GFS or Euro catch on first? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I need someone to blame. We have two easy scapegoats on here. lol 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Sort of feeling sick to my stomach right now. Never want to experience an event like last June again. Why? What was it at your house like 105? Not that bad. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... this is a straight up terrible run. Really frustrating that we are within a week and looking at these ridiculous temps again. You know you love it. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 This is an appalling error. Geesh. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Phil said: You know you love it. Imagine how warm lake Sammamish could get 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 I was thinking about Phil predicting cold troughing in late last June when he started predicting the same thing a couple weeks ago... and thought there is no way this can happen again. Well f*ck. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Not sure where to go from here. Hoping the EPS is at least a notch or two more reasonable. If not might just need a break. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: You know you love it. Can't describe how much I hate what the ECMWF is showing. Pretty far cry from upper 70s and low 80s. And destructive as hell. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I was thinking about Phil predicting cold troughing in late June last when he started predicting the same thing a couple weeks ago... and thought there is no way this can happen again. Well f*ck. Good point. I think we have our scapegoat. On the other hand by mid June last year I was correctly predicting it would be the warmest of all-time. I should start running some numbers for July. It would seem ludicrous to think we would have a shot after last July, but who knows. This one will go in the patheon with 2021, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009... Well you get the point. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 I won't be there to experience a heatwave if it happens thankfully, but I was really hoping that the PNW could avoid one this summer. There's still time for it to trend cooler I guess 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: You know you love it. I love it! I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum. Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be… 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Best case scenario right now is probably hoping the GEFS and EPS meet in the middle around 22-24C over the Willamette Valley. Still low 100s, but we are pretty used to that. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: Not sure where to go from here. Hoping the EPS is at least a notch or two more reasonable. If not might just need a break. So far the operational Euro on it’s own. Would only take a minor westward shift in the ridge axis (which is what analog pools favor) to neuter the heat substantially. CMC type solution still very possible. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: I love it! I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum. Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be… As I frequently explain to IBR Chris. It's not really an extreme or interesting if it happens 2-3 times a year. If we had "historic" arctic outbreaks 2-3 times every winter at some point they would become less exciting. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Goodness. This is pure trash. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: So far the operational Euro on it’s own. Would only take a minor westward shift in the ridge axis (which is what analog pools favor) to neuter the heat substantially. CMC type solution still very possible. Cold second half of July still on the table? 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Can't describe how much I hate what the ECMWF is showing. Pretty far cry from upper 70s and low 80s. And destructive as hell. A 2021 repeat would be preferable for you to a 1954 repeat though. Okay to admit it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: As I frequently explain to IBR Chris. It's not really an extreme or interesting if it happens 2-3 times a year. If we had "historic" arctic outbreaks 2-3 times every winter at some point they would become less exciting. It's just so hard on everything and everyone. Can't find any interest or excitement in that. Ruins summer. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: It's just so hard on everything and everyone. Can't find any interest or excitement in that. Ruins summer. It's hard for me to believe you because I hate heat and I don't even think 3 super hot days necessarily "ruin" summer. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I love it! I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum. Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be… I enjoy extremes too. Wouldn’t mind heat/humidity if it were transient with cool shots in between. But it looks like several 80+ lows coming up here over the next week, and no sub-70°F lows in sight. Nothing enjoyable about that when it never changes. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We don't have many slugs here and never big ones. But that could also be because of our two dozen free ranging ducks. Yeah my place is a bit of a safe haven for slugs lol! However my Aussie is an amazing rodent killer…He puts all of the mice he kills in one location in the yard and the moles in a different spot, but I have never actually seen the process until yesterday. He was laying in the same spot yesterday but facing towards the junipers in front of the deck and he was intensely watching the area by the rose bush, then he slowly got up and stalked his prey before pouncing on the mouse and crushing it’s skull (you could hear the crunch) then he licked it a few times and took it to the spot in the yard. Then he repeated the process two more times in a span of 20min! 3 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Can't describe how much I hate what the ECMWF is showing. Pretty far cry from upper 70s and low 80s. And destructive as hell. We give you a lot of but no reason to doubt this statement either. Pretty sure you've said multiple times you dislike these type of weather due to its destructive nature. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 19, 2022 Report Share Posted July 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I love it! I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum. Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be… There hasn't been anything really approaching last June from a winter weather perspective since probably January 1950. So it's not even remotely equitable. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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