December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Jimbo may seriously regret that east coast weenie hate speech. Karma is one hell of an atmospheric driver.

Lol, at least you know who/what to blame if everything goes to s**t.

 

In the midst of a super-niño, it's probably not the smartest thing for a PacNW wx-weenie to do. That's analogous to an Atlanta weenie trash talking Juneau in 1949-50.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, at least you know who/what to blame if everything goes to s**t.

 

In the midst of a super-niño, it's probably not the smartest thing for a PacNW wx-weenie to do.

 

.

 

 

He gets burned on almost every proclamation he makes.    

[Phil]

He gets burned on almost every proclamation he makes.

I wouldn't say that. He generally knows his stuff and has good instinct when it comes to pattern recognition. I listen to what he says.

 

Sometimes his I think his envy of the Midwest/East just gets the best of him.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't say that. He generally knows his stuff and has good instinct when it comes to pattern recognition. I listen to what he says.

 

Sometimes his I think his envy of the Midwest/East just gets the best of him.

 

 

Definitely blinded by jealously with the Midwest and East weather.

 

He also misreads our patterns as being better (colder and snowier) than reality.     He always seems to think "minor tweaks" will go in our favor but the opposite is usually true.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF brings precip into Portland on Sunday night with that odd ULL drifting north.

 

Keeps the Seattle area dry pretty much all of next week though.   

[TT-SEA]

Up to 39 at SEA... but with a dewpoint of only 17.   

 

Don't think fog will be a problem for the fireworks tonight as was mentioned in the news yesterday.

 

We have the benefit of getting into a very dry air mass before the inversion really gets going.    That is very nice given its been such a wet month and you would think an inversion would have the added help of lots of residual moisture.   But now the ground is hard and frozen.   And with some cooling at the upper levels on Sunday and Monday... the inversion might never become really established.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/bgkqm0q5t/seattle3.jpg

[Timmy]

12Z ECMWF brings precip into Portland on Sunday night with that odd ULL drifting north.

 

Keeps the Seattle area dry pretty much all of next week though.   

face value, what precip type?

[FroYoBro]

Pretty breezy east winds the last hour for Tigard. Dew points are getting nice and low. 

[TT-SEA]

Sleet or snow would be my guess, at least for us.

 

 

Just don't think snow is possible with 850mb temps above +3C.   

 

Light freezing rain or sleet is my bet.   

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF brings precip into Portland on Sunday night with that odd ULL drifting north.

 

Keeps the Seattle area dry pretty much all of next week though.   

 

I don't care what anyone says, that is one wonky 500mb pattern progression on the new Euro.

[TT-SEA]

I don't care what anyone says, that is one wonky 500mb pattern progression on the new Euro.

 

 

Split flow baby!  

[Front Ranger]

Split flow baby!  

 

Indeed. But with unusual amplification.

[Phil]

I don't care what anyone says, that is one wonky 500mb pattern progression on the new Euro.

Well, it's a very wonky pattern. At least it makes more sense than the 00z depiction.

[BLI snowman]

face value, what precip type?

 

Unfortunately the precip is associated with a warm tongue of air aloft. If we get the precip to rotate this far north, 800/850mb temps are almost certainly going up above freezing. Which would mean freezing rain at best (worst).

[Phil]

Indeed. But with unusual amplification.

We're so used to seeing zonal flow under a fully coupled PV/+NAM that meridional flow looks foreign.

[Front Ranger]

We're so used to seeing zonal flow under a fully coupled PV/+NAM that meridional flow looks foreign.

 

True, but this isn't your everyday meridional flow. The AO is progged to absolutely tank. That's some major Arctic blocking being shown.

[Timmy]

Scappoose is running -3 from this time yesterday! Gonna be a cold one! Teens for the location tonight I am guessing.

 

Snow is only melting off trees at my house that are in the sun. Otherwise I am probably losing a little to sublimation but a lot of my yard is in the shade.

[Phil]

True, but this isn't your everyday meridional flow. The AO is progged to absolutely tank. That's some major Arctic blocking being shown.

I think the rapidity of the transition to the -NAM is more notable than the strength of the blocking itself. I think we all foresaw the midwinter NAM flip based on the forcing parameters in play, as we were discussing it back in October/November.

 

Looks like the GEFS consensus is for a drop to around -3 or -4 standard deviations. So while significant, not very unusual. Of course, this doesn't preclude the -NAM winding up stronger than is currently being modeled. We observed a stronger -NAM back in March of 2013, and a truly prolific -NAM back in 2009-10.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[TT-SEA]

Scappoose is running -3 from this time yesterday! Gonna be a cold one! Teens for the location tonight I am guessing.

 

Snow is only melting off trees at my house that are in the sun. Otherwise I am probably losing a little to sublimation but a lot of my yard is in the shade.

 

 

Colder here than yesterday... only 29 right now.   Not sure I am losing anything to sublimation either given the frozen nature of the snow cover.   Our trees lost their snow in the fog on Monday and now the wind.    But nothing has melted on the ground.    Sledding is great for the kids.   

 

[FroYoBro]

Actually getting pretty gusty now. Still only 38 degrees. I love this weather. 

[Perturbed Member]

There is something very nice about having sunny weather with cold, dry and crisp wintery air. Just refreshing. 

 

Still hoping for some kind of transition event out of this, but looks like it will be too warm aloft. Not impossible for that to change I guess. 

[TT-SEA]

Did a WSDOT web cam tour of central and eastern WA and almost every location was sunny right now.   

 

So most of the white on the visible satellite is snow on the ground.   Obviously some clouds around the Gorge and on the east slopes in OR.    But most of WA is clear.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/u5kqljuzt/VIS1_SEA.gif

 

http://s23.postimg.org/5eperovx7/web_cam_tour.jpg

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't say that. He generally knows his stuff and has good instinct when it comes to pattern recognition. I listen to what he says.

 

Sometimes his I think his envy of the Midwest/East just gets the best of him.

 

The thing that has gotten me in recent years is when the East steals a winter that should have been ours.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like deja vu coming up with the MJO.  Back into region 2 in two weeks.  This time we will have very different EPO and Arctic indices going into it.  We have a shot at something fun later in January.

[snow_wizard]

Well, the 00z EPS mean has the 0C 850mb line down into Florida during the 11-15 period. That'd be quite the turnaround.

 

Just because the 0 line is in Florida doesn't necessarily mean it will be overly cold in the NE.  In this recent cold period California dropped below zero at 850mb in most places and yet the PNW never went below -7 or so.  Right now the Eastern troughs are shown to be transitory.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS shows dewpoints staying in the low 20s at SEA for the next 3 days and no visibility restrictions. A very dry inversion with no fog.

 

42 at SEA right now with a dewpoint of 17.

[MossMan]

Looking like deja vu coming up with the MJO. Back into region 2 in two weeks. This time we will have very different EPO and Arctic indices going into it. We have a shot at something fun later in January.

Looks like the PNA is attempting to drop near mid month as well!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the PNA is attempting to drop near mid month as well!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

There is serious potential for us if the PNA drops again.  The GFS and ECMWF agree on tanked EPO and AO at the time the PNA should start to drop again.  Look like the WPO may also go negative for the first time in quite a while.  Looks like a very blocky period coming up.  Not too surprising after the wild PJ we recently witnessed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is pretty amazing!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

This is pretty amazing!

 

WOW. Outstanding!

[Gradient Keeper]

High Temp here 36.7, now 36.1 falling

----------------------------------------------

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OREGON AND CLARK COUNTY IN WASHINGTON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY.* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING FURTHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND  REMAINING STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.* WINDS...SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH STARTING  EARLY FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE  AND IN THE WEST HILLS.* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE  VEHICLES...TRUCKS...AND VEHICLES PULLING TRAILERS...PARTICULARLY  ON NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WITH RECORD  RAINS EARLIER THIS MONTH...WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO DOWNED TREES  AND POWER DISRUPTIONS.

[Deweydog]

This is pretty amazing!

 

Why has our climate become so distasterously warm and dry?????

[antipex]

Why has our climate become so distasterously warm and dry?????

 

"Oh noes, the Arctic is going to get barely above freezing! The sky is falling the sky is falling!"

[epiceast]

Just don't think snow is possible with 850mb temps above +3C.   

 

Light freezing rain or sleet is my bet.   

I brought this up a couple days how such a strong ULL can't be that dry. Is there a warm noose over Eastern WA as well or is it all dry? I've lost the wunderground euro precip maps since last winter unfortunately. WRF shows a dusting-1" for Sunday atm, but we obviously can't trust the models on something so unusual.

[Brennan]

That record snowfall statistic is pretty extraordinary.

[TT-SEA]

I brought this up a couple days how such a strong ULL can't be that dry. Is there a warm noose over Eastern WA as well or is it all dry? I've lost the wunderground euro precip maps since last winter unfortunately. WRF shows a dusting-1" for Sunday atm, but we obviously can't trust the models on something so unusual.

 

 

It was dry on earlier runs... but now its moving farther west and coming northward faster.  There is some precip but its real light... hard to trust anything with that feature.

[Phil]

Just because the 0 line is in Florida doesn't necessarily mean it will be overly cold in the NE. In this recent cold period California dropped below zero at 850mb in most places and yet the PNW never went below -7 or so. Right now the Eastern troughs are shown to be transitory.

There's nothing transitory about this. After January 10th, troughing will be primarily located over the east/southeast for the remainder of winter, minus a potential warm shot during late January.

 

A monstrous +AAM surge is now ongoing, and this momentum will propagate poleward and should supercharge the STJ, preventing any sustained -PNA/-EPO. Late January offers the potential for a relatively quick -EPO shot, though.

[epiceast]

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-kI_457.png

 

If nothing else, it certainly shows that this is not an unbreakable ridge over us.

[Phil]

The thing that has gotten me in recent years is when the East steals a winter that should have been ours.

Our winters aren't as ENSO-dependent as yours are.

[FroYoBro]

Already down to 35 after a high of 39. Unlikely to get very cold with these strong winds tonight.