12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[NEJeremy]

I'm confused by what you are trying to say here. So because there are models that are different than each other, he should be offering a huge range for everyone and not go with a choice of how he thinks things will play out? "Town A you could get 2" or you could get 14" if this model is right or if this model is right, town B in Iowa you could get 5" or you could get 9" if this model is right or that model is right, etc etc." Do you realize how confusing that would be for people? He's picking a model and going with it. The Euro for the longest time didn't even have the heaviest over Omaha. On his Facebook page is generally focuses on Omaha, but on the TV he talks about the area he covers too.

 

But the point being, that if it is wrong and the higher amounts are to the east or the west...the folks living there will not know what the heck happened b/c he says that the only thing that will happen will be heaviest over the MO river.  That's a disservice to his viewers and should be changed.  At least show what the other models are showing and say that he is going with this particular model.  That's the responsible thing to do so others are not caught off guard.  98% of the public have no clue what the Euro, NAM, GFS is or what it means.  His job is to explain that and he is failing to do so.

[NEJeremy]

Another met going with the Euro huh? Strange....

 

Terry swails says GFS is the outliner and the euro is probably right. Says GFS is over doing the cold air

[Jaycee]

Agreed with Jeremy. Its so weird how Jim Flowers has been the topic in here as of late. I grew up watching him, and he has messed up countless times. Who cares though what his bias is? You understand that this is his FB page, not live news broadcast. He's going to talk about whatever he wants, when he's live on TV it's a different story.

[ToastedRavs]

I'm confused by what you are trying to say here. So because there are models that are different than each other, he should be offering a huge range for everyone and not go with a choice of how he thinks things will play out? "Town A you could get 2" or you could get 14" if this model is right or if this model is right, town B in Iowa you could get 5" or you could get 9" if this model is right or that model is right, etc etc." Do you realize how confusing that would be for people? He's picking a model and going with it. The Euro for the longest time didn't even have the heaviest over Omaha. On his Facebook page is generally focuses on Omaha, but on the TV he talks about the area he covers too.

 

 

@NEJeremy.  I don't see him on TV so I hope that is correct.  My point is that he has a responsibility to show the potential areas of heaviest snows.  It's one graphic; different shades with just putting "model 1" vs "model 2" vs model 3.  Don't even use the technical names.  You show that 10 sec graphic, explain which one you are using and why, then go to a graphic with your totals that you are using.  Total it takes 1 min of on air time.  The producer gives you an extra minute or two during these types of storms so he has the time.  If he does that, then that is all I am asking.  I only see his FB stuff, so I may be over reacting a bit, but from what I have seen (and like I said earlier--only just heard of him and followed him since this storm), he is not fulfilling his responsibility to do so. I hope I am wrong and he does this on air.  Otherwise, you are not giving businesses and emergency managers the full information; and it leads to a responsible explanation if the Euro is indeed wrong.  He can go back and say; "I told you about model 2 being a possibility, and it turned out it went model 2 vs the Euro (model 1)".  See what I am getting at?  It's not confusing b/c you show the possibilities and then go with your explanation of what model.  It's almost a CYA for post storm reasons.  I admire his gut from a week ago sticking with Euro, but he is still not doing his viewers right by not showing the possibility that western Iowa may get creamed.

[Geos]

Its moving east, but not quite to Des Moines yet.

 

[Geos]

Agreed with Jeremy. Its so weird how Jim Flowers has been the topic in here as of late. I grew up watching him, and he has messed up countless times. Who cares though what his bias is? You understand that this is his FB page, not live news broadcast. He's going to talk about whatever he wants, when he's live on TV it's a different story.

 

Imo, it is very unprofessional to cherry pick a certain model, especially when the consensus is different from that model and not at least give an acknowledgement to all major models.

 

My call is that the low passes within 50 miles of here.

[ToastedRavs]

@ geos. You mean professional or unprofessional?  Confused?

[Geos]

@ geos. You mean professional or unprofessional?  Confused?

 

Fixed it. Got side tracked while I was typing the sentence.

 

I know met's like Tom Skilling give acknowledgement to all the major models. He doesn't jump on a certain model a week away and say this will happen most likely. He's a lot more cautious. The way it should be.

 

There's a met in Indiana I think; Chad something..., that sounds a lot like Flowers. Difference is that he usually picks the least extreme model and runs with it.

[bud2380]

Nam shows very warm temps at 700mb that is why it shows so little snow in areas that 850s are below zero.

[Geos]

Nam shows very warm temps at 700mb that is why it shows so little snow in areas that 850s are below zero.

 

Ok. PW was being too slow. Now running smooth

 

 

At Cedar Rapids the warm layer keeps up until 30 hours, before snow moves in.

[pack402]

 

Fixed it. Got side tracked while I was typing the sentence.

 

I know met's like Tom Skilling give acknowledgement to all the major models. He doesn't jump on a certain model a week away and say this will happen most likely. He's a lot more cautious. The way it should be.

 

There's a met in Indiana I think; Chad something..., that sounds a lot like Flowers.[/quote

 

Lol, well I'd say follow him for longer than one storm system and you will see he is more diverse in forecasting than you give credit for. Sounds like he ruffled some feathers with some but he's fully explained why he's left major models out of certain forecasts.

[Grizzcoat]

Hrrr doesn't bring warm 700-750 Mb layer as far W as others do.

[ToastedRavs]

We thought this board was active before; now the HRRR is active and within time frame.  This thing (board) is going to be non stop! Lol!

[Money]

Rgem looks similar maybe a tad west

[gabel23]

I'm so excited for another WWA....just goes to show you why you never live model to model! 

The maps are going to look really funny, you will have WWA along highway 81 south of Columbus down to Hebron. Then warnings north and south of there from Columbus north and just south of Hebron into Kansas. Good old Hastings NWS! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

NEZ041-048-049-063-064-280600-
/O.UPG.KGID.WS.A.0005.151228T1200Z-151229T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0013.151228T1200Z-151229T0600Z/
NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FULLERTON...GENOA...CENTRAL CITY...
STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...POLK...AURORA...YORK
301 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY
TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 AM MONDAY AND THEN
DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM MONDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81
CORRIDOR.

* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES...AT TIMES LESS THAN 1 MILE.

* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

[Tom]

Both RGEM/HRRR showing snow for the KC region...

[Madtown]

South south just slide to the south.

[Tom]

18z RGEM has temps in the 20's for most of the day in N IL...looks a lot colder than the global models...man, icing is going to be a real big threat around here...

[Tom]

18z RGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015122718/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png

[WBadgersW]

South south just slide to the south.

[winterfreak]

RGEM does not have snow here.

[Tom]

LOT upgraded all of N IL into a WSW...also issued a High Wind Warning...it's going to get nasty...

 

 

 

Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
307 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

ILZ014-280515-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0006.151228T1200Z-151228T1900Z/
COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO
307 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
AM TO 1 PM CST MONDAY.

* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FAR INLAND FROM THE LAND.

* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. ICY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE RISK OF
POWER OUTAGES ANYWHERE ICE HAS ACCUMULATED ON POWER LINES AND
TREE LIMBS.

 

 

 

 

 

High Wind WarningURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...VERY STRONG EAST WINDS ON MONDAY...

ILZ006-014-280500-
/O.NEW.KLOT.HW.W.0001.151228T1900Z-151229T0100Z/
LAKE IL-COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...CHICAGO
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CST MONDAY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CST MONDAY.

* TIMING...MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS SUSTAINED 35 TO 45 MPH...GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

 

 

 

Too bad this isn't snow because it would have justified a Blizzard Warning...

[NEJeremy]

winter storm warning issued for eastern Nebraska. my grids have 7-12" forecast! hoping for double digit totals here!

[East Dubzz]

I don't think some people realized the trouble this storm is going to cause. My dad was like .. What, you said maybe a few inches of snow? Yes, on top of ice and with wind, which is a bad, bad combination.

[gabel23]

Platte county, which is Columbus, has 6-10" being forecasted. I'm straight south of there and I have 3-5". The snow will be moving in from the south!! It doesn't make sense, sometimes I wonder what the hell Hastings is thinking.....

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ012-015-017-018-031>034-042>045-280545-
/O.UPG.KOAX.WS.A.0004.151228T1200Z-151229T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.W.0006.151228T1200Z-151229T1200Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-CEDAR-THURSTON-PIERCE-WAYNE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONAWA...MAPLETON...MISSOURI VALLEY...
WOODBINE...LOGAN...DUNLAP...HARLAN...HARTINGTON...LAUREL...
RANDOLPH...COLERIDGE...PENDER...MACY...WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO...
PIERCE...PLAINVIEW...OSMOND...WAYNE...NORFOLK...STANTON...
WEST POINT...WISNER...TEKAMAH...OAKLAND...LYONS...DECATUR...
COLUMBUS...SCHUYLER...FREMONT...BLAIR
333 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING AND
FALLING SNOW MAY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS trending E.

[Tom]

18z GFS...clobbers Wisco...

[winterfreak]

No snow on the GFS. Hope those short range models are right.

[WBadgersW]

Yesssss please

[gosaints]

About Hi res nowcast time. Gfs way colder than any model. Trust it at your own risk

[Money]

Wowwww

[Maxim]

toss

[gosaints]

Wowwww

You riding the gfs?

[CentralNebWeather]

Dodge city nws went from blizzard warnings and feet of snow to no advisories and less than one inch of snow forecasted. Proves models can change rapidly. Shoot earlier this week the gfs had over a foot of snow here and has now shifted hundreds of miles east.

[GDR]

About Hi res nowcast time. Gfs way colder than any model. Trust it at your own risk

noway it's that cold. Maybe Flowers and swails are on to something

[winterfreak]

Sounds like our NWS might downgrade the warning. Less than an inch of snow with a minimal ice threat as warm air aloft wins the battle again.

[Money]

You riding the gfs?

Nah not making a call til 0z runs tonight

[gosaints]

Nah not making a call til 0z runs tonight

Cool

[gabel23]

Such a sharp cut off I hate it. I need not even a 3 mile shift to the west and I'm in the 6-8".  It has been a frustrating past couple of days. Still waiting for the one "share the wealth storm" to occur for all of us. You have to admit though, it looks stupid with the WWA south of Columbus down to Hebron!! 

[Money]

Cool

I'm leaning more towards the southern end of guidance right now tho