August 2022 Observation & Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

On 8/10/2022 at 11:12 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

NO way any parts of IA will  avg 5C or 9F above avg from Aug 22nd through Sep 4. And this graphic has it at 80-90% of happening.  ( I would have posted this earlier and pointed out the simple stats involved in such an absurd graphic-- but life got in the way) ---- Do these people that post this crap on Twitter get any negative feedback when they are obviously wrong-- or do they all just drink from the same kool-aid jar?     Or is it just the when models show it being brutally cold? (and doesn't happen) that people call it out? (and that does happen) - Serious question. Facts state that a 2 week stretch of temps avg'ing 5C or 9F above normal simply don't happen in the warmer months in the the C.Plains due to mixing ratios etc...  -- winter is different. A 2 week stretch of temps avg 10F above normal in the summer is extremely rare-- talking 2012/1930's/1988 etc in the Plains)  Reason I write is because the above to the extremes shown right now looks very likely NOT to happen--- much more than 10-20% in Iowa. I see the model is experimental. Will give the poster and followers the benefit of the doubt-- and OmahaSnowFan-- nothing agst you personally. We just see things differently. Glad we have the choice to do so!!!    You do ram down the throat the winter posters of how bad the winter will be - (and it's usually not as bad-- I agree) but still post the above-- likely knowing it has little chance in verifying as you seem to be smart dude when it comes to such things.  IN other words- if your a betting man- the odds of the above verifying from 3-4 week lead time with near 90%certainity  of W.IA seeing temps 9F above normal for 15 a day stretch  is like 500:1 when you really look at the stats. ( I have a stats major).   It's a big reason why it will fail. Sad that it gets posted on social media without many knowing the difference-- but many look the "maps" and get concerned about all that "warming"!!! ( just like all the 100F+ temps forecasts here at DSM this summer that NEVER happened)   And doesn't get called out like it should...  ( and if you call it out --- hell be to you)--

 

  she better be pretty warm according to the experts those last 5-6 days to have any chance of being 2-3F above normal for the 15 day period you posted-- nonetheless 9F-.   Science is science - until it's not what you wanna hear. But isn't that science in the whole? 

[Andie]

 4 AM and 85*!  Crazy. 

Last day today over 100!!?
Maybe we’re entering a phase in 90’s and 80’s.  We’re ALL exhausted & sick of it!

Come on rain!

 

[Clinton]

Nice line of thunderstorms pushing south out of northern MO should set up a rainy cool day with temps in the low 70s.  Hoping to get an inch of rain out of this system the higher totals look to be over central MO. 

[AquariusRadar]

That Texas low continues along the predicted path right into the Pecos. No turning so far. Training thunderstorms right along the river are going to create some flash flooding. West Texas needs the rain but the tree-less hard pan soils make flash flooding a problem- like most of the dry Southwest. The Rio Grande onion farmers will like that extra water.    

[Andie]

Here’s something you don’t see everyday…12 days under 100 and rain in forecast!  Am I dreaming?
 

[Tom]

Rise and Shine...as nautical twilight continues, it is still quite dark out here at 5:10 am local time and the air is quite sticky...sunrise is 5:51am local time.

[westMJim]

It was another great summer day yesterday with the official H/L at Grand Rapids of 80/59 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 68% of the time. The over night low both in MBY and at GRR was 55. For today the record high of 99 was set in 1913 and the record low of a cool 40 was set in 1979. The next several days look to continue to be near average with a chance of a few showers.
 

[Tom]

36 minutes ago, Andie said:

Here’s something you don’t see everyday…12 days under 100 and rain in forecast!  Am I dreaming?
 

I'm excited for you and the hearty Texans to see some Bigly relief!

[Bryan1117]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yep, for days there was real good rain potential for Omaha tonight, but then ol' Ma Nature pulled the rug out.  

We did get some showers and storms that ended up back building into the metro last night. It looks like I will finish up with 0.75” of rain from this system, so really not too bad at all.

It wasn’t the 1 - 2” that was initially predicted by the models, but thankful that we at least got a halfway decent soaking over a 24-hour period. Maybe this fall/ winter things will line up perfectly for us with a decent system in the Omaha metro.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Enjoying  the cool damp  boundary  waters weather!  

My men says .50 at my home east edge of Ottumwa and  cooler. But no where near enough  to turn this drought  around!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

We did get some showers and storms that ended up back building into the metro last night. It looks like I will finish up with 0.75” of rain from this system, so really not too bad at all.

It wasn’t the 1 - 2” that was initially predicted by the models, but thankful that we at least got a halfway decent soaking over a 24-hour period. Maybe this fall/ winter things will line up perfectly for us with a decent system in the Omaha metro.

0.06" total.  Really unbelievable.  Storms were all around, but as the line was moving SE, it just broke apart.  Forecasts kept upping amounts last night to over 1", but ultimately they were wrong again.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Just my observation  but in eastern  Iowa this summer heat has been drastically  over rated  and hyped.  I have had 22 90 degree days.   Thats probably  about normal.   We have not had any periods of over 4 days of 90.   Many cool fronts  even some cloudy  days in upper 70s. But low to mid 80s the norm.  Not extreme at all given  the dry conditions.   Desmoines  and western  iowa  seem much warmer. But i strongly  suspect  desmoines  is becoming  a even more intense  heat island  given the sprawl taking place.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm in the lightest green color in south central Nebraska.  Very disappointing when the potential looked so good last night.  Moisture chances are slim or none for the next week at least.

[mlgamer]

A touch of Autumn out there today...cloudy skies and upper 60s all day in MBY along with 0.40" of rain overnight and this morning. Not bad for mid-August...

[Clinton]

Finished up with an even 2 inches of rain, a little better than what was modeled.  Currently is cloudy and cool with a temp of 68.  There were some impressive rain totals today, for KCI it was the most rain they've had since June 24th.

[Andie]

99*.  But the air is “different”.

Considering we have a change coming Thursday, …perhaps after a hard core summer, the change is more evident?  
By hard core,- I mean it in every sense of the word!  
Oh yeah….it!

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like we might have set a record low maximum temperature of 64 degrees. I coach 7th and 8th grade football, and the weather was glorious. Low clouds with a very heavy mist/drizzle soaked everything, but no one was complaining. Once you were soaked, it felt much colder. This wasn’t forecasted, so I wasn’t prepared with a jacket or sweatshirt. 

[jcwxguy]

 

 

a whole .19" here LOL

[Andie]

This is our last hot day for awhile. 
102 today.
Adios heat!   Don’t let the door hit on the way out.  
 

88 tomorrow with a 40% chance of rain.  
Low of 72!

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

16 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Just my observation  but in eastern  Iowa this summer heat has been drastically  over rated  and hyped.  I have had 22 90 degree days.   Thats probably  about normal.   We have not had any periods of over 4 days of 90.   Many cool fronts  even some cloudy  days in upper 70s. But low to mid 80s the norm.  Not extreme at all given  the dry conditions.   Desmoines  and western  iowa  seem much warmer. But i strongly  suspect  desmoines  is becoming  a even more intense  heat island  given the sprawl taking place.

There is no doubt that KDSM has seen an increase in the UHI over the years. I will post more data later -- but in a nut-  min temps on the rise / max temps have stayed stagnant if not declined in the summer.   25 years at KDSM as one of the observers that actually "over sees" the data.  More later..

[Tom]

Depending on where the remnants of the Tropical system that will spin up here in the SW tracks, parts of TX or OK could get walloped with rain.  Bring out the Canoe???  From cracked ground to Flooded lands....my goodness!

 

0z Euro next 10 days...EPS shows the heaviest ribbon of precip to hug the TX/OK border... @Andie

[Tom]

You know when Autumn is creeping closer, when the models start showing Sub 0C 850's just across the Canadian border...#AutumnOnMyMind

On the flip side, no signs of Autumn here, however, it will feel like early/mid Autumn with high temps in the Upper 80's and cloudy skies this coming weekend.  Man, this is going to be a bonafide Monsoon/Tropical airmass come Thu-Sun for the "Valley of the Sun"...it's going to feel like the Tropics out here in the desert!  Lot's of fascinating wx will be transpiring over the next couple weeks for our Sub.  While the northern 1/2 of the Sub takes a break, except for this weekends "Summer Clipper",  the rest should enjoy clear and comfy temps.  The southern 1/2 is going to be blessed with much cooler and wetter conditions.  The end of Summer flip about to commence and its about Dang time.

0z EPS...

 

 

I'm wondering if the warming waters in the NE PAC have anything to do with the models not seeing the "off the charts" +PNA...

[Andie]

Let’s hope it delivers !  
The Red River always is wetter. Gets a good deal more rain but we will take all we can get as will Okla.  

We are ready to bail the high water!!  It’ll take a lot of water. The lake is low and the land extremely dry deep down.   Wildlife really needs the relief.
Bring it. We’re ready.   

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 82/55 officially there was no rain fall reported. Here in MBY there was a cloud that came overhead and from that cloud there was a brief shower so I ended up with 0.01" of rain fall. There was 79% of sunshine reported at GRR. The overnight low here in MBY was 57 the overnight low at GRR was 58 at the current time with clear skies it is 68 here. For today the average H/L remains at 81/61 the record high of 98 was recorded in 1988 the record low of 45 was recorded in 1894 and 1976. The next few days look to continue great summer weather for our area.

[westMJim]

On a side note. There has been not only a thunderstorm drought in parts of Michigan there has also been a tornado drought as well. So far this year there have been only two reported tornadoes in the state of Michigan (the EF3 storm in Gaylord on May 20^th and a small EF0 south of Flint)

[Hawkeye]

The Euro still loves Texas.  This would be as extreme of a pattern flip as you'll ever see.

[Hawkeye]

Models are consistently showing eastern Iowa getting rain in the 0.50-1.00" range Fri/Sat.  This would be welcome because it hasn't rained here since August 7th.

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro still loves Texas.  This would be as extreme of a pattern flip as you'll ever see.

We’re ready to go !

Im in that brown area. 
It’s 101* currently but the high tomorrow will be 88 !! 
Scattered showers to the south at 6pm.  I’m sure those ranchers are happy.   

[Clinton]

Today was about as nice of a day as you can have in August, bright sunshine light winds and a high of 82.  Another nice day tomorrow and then rain chances increase Friday evening through the weekend.  Could be some strong storms in my area Friday night.

[Clinton]

Fantasy land GFS but how awesome to see some blue on the map.  Snow in the Rockies down to the US/Canadian border.

[Andie]

Lots of lightning and thunder to the south.  Temperature is officially 95 but it feels cooler off those storms.  
REALLY NICE!  
We won’t see hundreds for at least 2 weeks.  If we’re lucky we’re done with it.

I think we’ve done our part for summer. Don’t you? 

[westMJim]

In yet another great late summer day the official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/58 there was no rain fall and there was 84% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 58 the official low looks to be 60 at GRR at the current time it is clear and 58 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is now down to 81/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1947 the record low of 41 was set in 1943. The sun rise today is at 6:52 AM and the sun set is 8:39 PM. The next several days continue to show very nice late summer weather with the best chance of any rain coming over the weekend.

 

[Andie]

High of 88 today.  Then 97, 92, then back into the high 80’s and some rain.  

Typical season shift.   We could still see 100’s though. That’s the Southern Plains! 
 

[Tom]

The daily occurrence of the Monsoon storms up near Flagstaff is heartbreaking due to the flooding caused by the rains flowing down the burn scars.  It's becoming a big problem up there.   Look at this video below and you can grasp what they are experiencing...its friggin' wild...The Tropics of Arizona...

https://sports.yahoo.com/flood-experts-tour-flagstaff-burn-000840562.html

The storms did try to fire up close to me but the atmosphere just didn't cooperate.  Today, I have a better chance of seeing a cluster of storms to dive down SW out of the Mountains to my north.  The whole valley is under the gun for torrential downpours and flooding the next few days.

You don't see a forecast like this to often out there....Buckle up!

 

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Beautiful rains here in KC Tuesday this week. Some of it fast, but, a lot of it was a slow soaking moderate rain. Really needed it and we need more. I'm still around 5 inches below average since June 1st.  Another decent shot of rain tomorrow followed by a beautiful weekend with temps 60's/80's. 

 

Hoping Texas will score big on the potential big rains this week, I know you guys need it. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

High of 88 today.  Then 97, 92, then back into the high 80’s and some rain.  

Typical season shift.   We could still see 100’s though. That’s the Southern Plains! 
 

Your looking pretty the next 2-3 weeks....I think it's safe to say, no extended Heat for you on the horizon...maybe its time to wave good bye to the Heat?  

[Andie]

Definitely!!  
 

80* at noon!….and rain moving SE

[CentralNebWeather]

Really getting dry.  .06" in the last 3 weeks.  Dryland crops will be interesting to see what they can produce, fearful that yields will probably be way down.  The vast majority of the area is irrigated and those crops look amazing.  Farmers would have loved some rain to turn off irrigation systems.  My brother in law says that he should be done irrigating Aug. 31.  He says if we could just get a 1" rain, that might be enough to be finished for the season.  Not looking too promising.  I have probably used my underground sprinklers more this year than any year since 2012.  Not looking forward to the next bill.  

[Andie]

Rain evaporated.  
 

The forecast is beginning to look like Haiku. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’m still waiting for the next “ice age/global cooling” to start that was predicted on here…

[Clinton]

Nice looking weekend coming up.  Thunderstorms are possible Friday night with some models showing a 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, I've been on fortunate side of rainfall lately so we'll see how it goes.

[Andie]

Well, I won’t be celebrating an ice age. According to that map! 

[OmahaSnowFan]

On 8/16/2022 at 8:13 AM, Bryan1117 said:

We did get some showers and storms that ended up back building into the metro last night. It looks like I will finish up with 0.75” of rain from this system, so really not too bad at all.

It wasn’t the 1 - 2” that was initially predicted by the models, but thankful that we at least got a halfway decent soaking over a 24-hour period. Maybe this fall/ winter things will line up perfectly for us with a decent system in the Omaha metro.

Yeah it was weird how it back built after the main show had stayed south and was moving southeast the entire night. Ended up getting clipped with basically the very northwest edge of the new area of rain, but thanks to efficient rainfall rates got a pretty decent amount. I received .94” IMBY!

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 8/15/2022 at 10:21 PM, james1976 said:

Perfect evening up in the MN home. Clear, calm and 64. Great night for a bonfire. 

Im near Ely, Minn and it has been beautiful  weather!   60s and 70s mostly. Every time  it warms to 70s  convection  occurs and has rained some every single day!  Nice change from Southeast  Iowa!

[Clinton]

Euro not backing down on rainfall for east Texas, too much of a good thing.

[Andie]

Yeah. Those low lying swampy areas will flood. Many homes are back in those areas.  Not good. 
 

It has 8.3 very near me.  

[Tom]

10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m still waiting for the next “ice age/global cooling” to start that was predicted on here…

It's been a rather interesting Year thus far...let's see how the year settles up....Get your Popcorn ready!

[Tom]

As the saying goes, its "Show Time"...I got a bit of a taste of the Monsoon here in the valley yesterday.  While I was at the pool last evening looking out to my east as the storms were heading my way, the outflows blew so fast through the complex that the chairs blew into the pool.  Pretty wild.  I captured some vids on the development of the line that came through. The severe stuff was just to my NW and I only got a few tenths of an inch.  The beauty of the clouds that bubble up each and every single day up in the mountains since I've been here is why I love being here during the Monsoon season.  

The Tropics of the Valley of the Sun...

 

 

[Tom]

There appears to be a Bald Eagle that has settled into the area….

   

This was the view from a couple days ago when it went on my morning cardio/hike…the Bald Eagle in the video usually sits on top of one of the palm trees on the right side of the picture below…