Grizzcoat Posted August 16, 2022 Report Share Posted August 16, 2022 On 8/10/2022 at 11:12 PM, OmahaSnowFan said: NO way any parts of IA will avg 5C or 9F above avg from Aug 22nd through Sep 4. And this graphic has it at 80-90% of happening. ( I would have posted this earlier and pointed out the simple stats involved in such an absurd graphic-- but life got in the way) ---- Do these people that post this crap on Twitter get any negative feedback when they are obviously wrong-- or do they all just drink from the same kool-aid jar? Or is it just the when models show it being brutally cold? (and doesn't happen) that people call it out? (and that does happen) - Serious question. Facts state that a 2 week stretch of temps avg'ing 5C or 9F above normal simply don't happen in the warmer months in the the C.Plains due to mixing ratios etc... -- winter is different. A 2 week stretch of temps avg 10F above normal in the summer is extremely rare-- talking 2012/1930's/1988 etc in the Plains) Reason I write is because the above to the extremes shown right now looks very likely NOT to happen--- much more than 10-20% in Iowa. I see the model is experimental. Will give the poster and followers the benefit of the doubt-- and OmahaSnowFan-- nothing agst you personally. We just see things differently. Glad we have the choice to do so!!! You do ram down the throat the winter posters of how bad the winter will be - (and it's usually not as bad-- I agree) but still post the above-- likely knowing it has little chance in verifying as you seem to be smart dude when it comes to such things. IN other words- if your a betting man- the odds of the above verifying from 3-4 week lead time with near 90%certainity of W.IA seeing temps 9F above normal for 15 a day stretch is like 500:1 when you really look at the stats. ( I have a stats major). It's a big reason why it will fail. Sad that it gets posted on social media without many knowing the difference-- but many look the "maps" and get concerned about all that "warming"!!! ( just like all the 100F+ temps forecasts here at DSM this summer that NEVER happened) And doesn't get called out like it should... ( and if you call it out --- hell be to you)-- she better be pretty warm according to the experts those last 5-6 days to have any chance of being 2-3F above normal for the 15 day period you posted-- nonetheless 9F-. Science is science - until it's not what you wanna hear. But isn't that science in the whole? 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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