October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well maybe we get there...

Just in time for Christmas 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS is on board now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah GEFS looks promising, timing chugging along.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Eujunga said:

Hmmm... I think you'd have to observe a clear trend over quite a number of days in order to overcome statistical noise.

Every forecaster, whether it's the NWS or some yahoo that creates an app, starts with the same data and the same basic methodology. There just isn't that much wiggle room beyond a certain resolution, especially if we're talking less than 24 hours out. Correctly predicting that it'll be 75 degrees rather than 73 degrees is just the luck of the draw.

I'm always thinking I can outwit the NWS on forecasting the weather IMBY. Sometimes I can, but in the long run I know I can't win because they have the edge on both data and experience. It's like thinking you can beat the house in a casino. You may win a few hands, or even several in a row, but in the long run you'll always lose.

You're forgetting that some people are just more attuned to what is going on than others.  There are some people that are better than others at weather forecasting whether it's due to "sixth sense", more knowledge of local microclimates, or having a better handle on model biases, or whatever.  There are some hard core skeptics on here that basically imply why even bother to try to be a better forecaster.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Pretty consistent for the last few runs!

I can understand a "rug pull" on some highly improbable extreme arctic blast solution, but all we're talking about here is a return to an ordinary fall weather pattern.

It's probably not going to be ordinary.  Extremes beget extremes.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF PNA forecast is identical to the GFS through day 10.  Certainly implies a strong chance of -PNA developing just after day 10.

[snow_wizard]

EPS is in the pre retrogression mode at day 10.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You're forgetting that some people are just more attuned to what is going on than others.  There are some people that are better than others at weather forecasting whether it's due to "sixth sense", more knowledge of local microclimates, or having a better handle on model biases, or whatever.  There are some hard core skeptics on here that basically imply why even bother to try to be a better forecaster.

I think we think we are more attuned but in reality we are just guessing (wishcasting) and wrong all the time and just gloss over the mistakes and focus on the hits like we have it figured out.   Confirmation bias.   

[snow_wizard]

This is an average of the last 4 CFS runs for January.

[TT-SEA]

EPS jumps from ridging to troughing right around day 12.   Doesn't mean it will be really wet or cold or will be a permanent pattern change... but might bring some much needed rain and some variety.

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is an average of the last 4 CFS runs for January.

Eh, cold looks like it is sliding east 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Eh, cold looks like it is sliding east 

It just kind of a rough idea.  I think you're joking though.  I hope.

[snow_wizard]

EPS control showing a very blocky -PNA pattern after day 10.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...none of these maps I'm posting have anything to do with what I think will happen.  I'm just posting what the models show.

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It just kind of a rough idea.  I think you're joking though.  I hope.

I am joking

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking EPS.  Strongly hints at a cold pattern developing.

[NWbyNW]

Here is that new Clark County fire in relation to Vancouver and it's suburbs.  It is called the Nakia Creek Fire and it is burning on Larch Mountain.  I got family out there...

 

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Here is that new Clark County fire in relation to Vancouver and it's suburbs.  It is called the Nakia Creek Fire and it is burning on Larch Mountain.  I got family out there...

 

That fire is actually big enough to be visible on the IR satellite image... and will be hit with a decently strong west wind today.

[Meatyorologist]

Actually think there might be something to these long range troughs... Transition looks and feels like how March->April went earlier this year. Not saying that when troughing does come it will become the default base state for months on end (actually with -ENSO it probably will statistically speaking lol), but it certainly does feel like a hard crash is immenent.

[Meatyorologist]

Not mentioning... 06z troughing is beastly. -2σ 850mb temp anomalies, and a crazy jet right overhead to boot. Fantastic PSCZ postfrontal setups w/ GOA-sourced regurgitated Arctic air. Classic -ENSO October setup... What we should be occasionally seeing in a normal year similar to this one.

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA reporting 52F and "Fog/Mist/Smoke"

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Actually think there might be something to these long range troughs... Transition looks and feels like how March->April went earlier this year. Not saying that when troughing does come it will become the default base state for months on end (actually with -ENSO it probably will statistically speaking lol), but it certainly does feel like a hard crash is immenent.

I agree with this take.   The consistency of the EPS has me believing its coming as well.

[Meatyorologist]

Pretty weird stratus profile this morning... Foggy in some areas and clear in others along my bus ride. At any rate, where there isn't fog, ceilings are absurdly low, almost just above the hilltops, or even consuming them.

With westerly flow increasing, should be a pretty cool and mostly cloudy day. Next two days should also resemble something close to normal... Before ridging returns in vigor come Wednesday.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Things actually seemed pretty clear up here last night, the moon was pretty much its normal color from moonrise to moonset.  Sounds like it will be pretty short lived but I'll take it.

 

Got down to 48 last night. 

[Cloud]

Today is the Columbus Day Storm 60th anniversary. This year we’re dealing with dry and smoky conditions. We haven’t really had a good honest windstorms in years. 

[Cloud]

Predictions for late month pattern change is looking great  

[MossMan]

My sky as of 10min ago. With the normal stench of smoke. 

[Phishy Wx]

40 out last hour.

 

so you guys are telling me I'll have to stop wearing shorts and flip flops by the end of the month?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

40 out last hour.

 

so you guys are telling me I'll have to stop wearing shorts and flip flops by the end of the month?

For places like yours and up here in the higher elevations it will flip from summer to winter. No shoulder seasons for us this year. Winter to summer, summer to winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obligatory carpet pic 

[LowerGarfield]

Currently 51F but it feels colder than the last few mornings.

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Obligatory carpet pic 

You need socks to match the carpet. Happy travels.

[YahRaEl]

Please!!!!

[The Blob]

People at work are going to complain about the fire smoke. Like how dare Amazon not provide clean air to breathe on their way to and from work. The company should be doing more for us.

[Meatyorologist]

29 minutes ago, The Blob said:

People at work are going to complain about the fire smoke. Like how dare Amazon not provide clean air to breathe on their way to and from work. The company should be doing more for us.

Do you work downtown?

[The Blob]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Do you work downtown?

Troutdale,  across the river from the new fire.

[Snownerd3000]

7 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Here is that new Clark County fire in relation to Vancouver and it's suburbs.  It is called the Nakia Creek Fire and it is burning on Larch Mountain.  I got family out there...

 

This sucks but that picture is amazing.

[Meatyorologist]

41 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Troutdale,  across the river from the new fire.

Oh I see. I work for a catering service that partners with Amazon, I was wondering if I've maybe served you. Never been to that location though, so probably not, unless you've ventured up to the Westlake Campus in Seattle.

[RentonHill]

here it comes!!

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 48 this morning…first time we’ve had back to back lows in the 40s this fall.