snow_wizard Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 The ECMWF suite of models is much sharper with the upcoming trough than the GFS. The ECMWF PNA forecast is at -5 for day 10. That is hard core. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 hours ago, MossMan said: Smoke is coming back again. Yup. It's already back here too. 2 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 Air quality still pretty good here, but looks like there’s some nasty stuff to our south and east. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 ECMWF and GFS are both going well over 80 for SEA on Sunday. Totally insane. On a more fall like note it dropped to 42 here this morning. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 I have a bit of an off topic thing here. The last few days I've heard pickleball mentioned a number of times so I looked into what all the hoopla is about. The first thing that caught my eye is it was invented in Bainbridge Island in 1965. Now for some reason it is exploding worldwide nearly 60 years later! Talk about slow to catch on. Really odd. For those who didn't know it is now the state sport in WA. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post fubario Posted October 12, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 Last couple sentences from latest Seattle NWS long term discussion... there are indications that a substantive pattern change is in the offing just beyond the current window of the long term forecast. Models ensembles are nearly unanimous with this idea now. 27 9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: ECMWF and GFS are both going well over 80 for SEA on Sunday. Totally insane. On a more fall like note it dropped to 42 here this morning. I told you all this was probably going to happen. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF suite of models is much sharper with the upcoming trough than the GFS. The ECMWF PNA forecast is at -5 for day 10. That is hard core. The GEFS has had a consistent group of members that come in sharp like the Euro ones but 18z has noticeably less than the last several runs have had. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Seems to be a ton of spread on the ensembles on how we get through the 18-21st period, but eventually all roads lead to death by snü snü 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 18z continues the pattern change with lots of rain. Nice run, now we need the timing to continue to move up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: 18z continues the pattern change with lots of rain. Nice run, now we need the timing to continue to move up. North WA Cascades get over 100" of snow in some places in this run 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, Doiinko said: That's a Trough with a capital T 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: That's a Trough with a capital T In Clown range with a capital C. 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 12, 2022 Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 These little disturbances ahead of the main trough look like theyre whats causing the uncertainty at that time. GFS knows there is something around at that time but doesnt think its legit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TacomaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park. 26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2022 Looks like today was 65/47 in Tacoma. 61/25 here in west Yellowstone doesn’t get much better than that. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park. You may have picked the best week of the year to visit. Literally perfect weather. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 hours ago, fubario said: Last couple sentences from latest Seattle NWS long term discussion... there are indications that a substantive pattern change is in the offing just beyond the current window of the long term forecast. Models ensembles are nearly unanimous with this idea now. 27 It will probably turn out to be summer! It's coming back!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 I woke up this morning and saw the mountains were gone. The smoke is slowly creeping towards us again. Will it be as bad as this previous bought? Sad we only had nice clear weather a day. Past Weekend Tuesday Wednesday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Sneaky little 80 at PDX. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: You may have picked the best week of the year to visit. Literally perfect weather. It’s been extremely nice. Super clear weather with great visibility and there’s not nearly as many people as I thought there would be here even in mid October. Have had 0 traffic problems outside of a couple construction areas and no problems getting into sites with too many people visiting. Several people told me they’ve been in the park during peak season and it just ruins it with big traffic jams and hundreds of people trying to park and see different sites. Based on those stories I’d never come here May 15th-September 15th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, TacomaWx said: Amazing day over in Yellowstone/Grand Teton. Still got another full day of exploring tomorrow on the north side of the park. Awesome pictures! You really lucked out with the weather. This week has been gorgeous fall weather! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 All I can say right now is that I am SO glad the worst of this ridging regime is occuring now, and not at the end of July or anywhere around the heart of the Summer. Had it worked out that way, would it have been shocking to see 10+ consecutive days in the 90s at KSEA? I think that could have been a real possibility. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It’s been extremely nice. Super clear weather with great visibility and there’s not nearly as many people as I thought there would be here even in mid October. Have had 0 traffic problems outside of a couple construction areas and no problems getting into sites with too many people visiting. Several people told me they’ve been in the park during peak season and it just ruins it with big traffic jams and hundreds of people trying to park and see different sites. Based on those stories I’d never come here May 15th-September 15th. Ahh you figured out the locals secret! Late September through closing is always the best time to visit. You can see a wide range of weather conditions but you definitely picked a good week this year! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: All I can say right now is that I am SO glad the worst of this ridging regime is occuring now, and not at the end of July or anywhere around the heart of the Summer. Had it worked out that way, would it have been shocking to see 10+ consecutive days in the 90s at KSEA? I think that could have been a real possibility. Summer really could not have turned out any worse regardless... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Kayla said: Ahh you figured out the locals secret! Late September through closing is always the best time to visit. You can see a wide range of weather conditions but you definitely picked a good week this year! I’m already thinking about coming back in about a year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Summer really could not have turned out any worse regardless... I think in the coming decades we will come to find it gets much, much worse than that. 1 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I think in the coming decades we will come to find it gets much, much worse than that. That would be shocking. Keep in mind this region has shown about the largest increase in summer temps on the globe. There is much more to it than just the current global warming regime. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post T-Town Posted October 13, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 A little bit if fall color here in Boston but still a few days away from really being good. Our office is a couple blocks from Boston Common so it’s been easy to get over here a couple times a day and get some steps in. The park is nice and filled with people enjoying the sunny afternoons. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: I’m already thinking about coming back in about a year. Are some areas still closed due to flood damage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, T-Town said: A little bit if fall color here in Boston but still a few days away from really being good. Our office is a couple blocks from Boston Common so it’s been easy to get over here a couple times a day and get some steps in. The park is nice and filled with people enjoying the sunny afternoons. Pretty surprising it's still that green there with all of the cold troughs they've had. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, T-Town said: Are some areas still closed due to flood damage? The Northeast Entrance and Lamar valley is closed but everything else is fully functional. Pretty good turnaround from a biblical flood just 4 months ago. According to the park 93% of the roads are open. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Pretty surprising it's still that green there with all of the cold troughs they've had. I thought things would be further along. This is in the heart of the city though which no doubt keeps temps up and delays the fall colors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: The Northeast Entrance and Lamar valley is closed but everything else is fully functional. Pretty good turnaround from a biblical flood just 4 months ago. According to the park 93% of the roads are open. Wow, that’s impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 In the meantime, while we wait for fall to arrive, what’s being shown for Sunday is absolutely remarkable. Not only will we be dealing with the latest 80F ever but it’ll also destroy the daily record of 72F from 1946 by a good 10+ degrees. There are models support for this ridiculousness with the 80s. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 8 hours ago, Deweydog said: 80 burger? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: 80 burger? Yes, but this is for PDX hitting the 40s for the first time since May. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 I could see the smoke from the fire coming into work today. I'll check at lunch to see if there is a glow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 11 hours ago, Phil said: It looks like my grandmother is going to pass today. She fell & broke her hip/shoulder over the weekend, and never really recovered from the anesthesia post-surgery. Am really appreciating the value of family and human life today. My condolences to you and your family Phil. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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