October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I thought things would be further along. This is in the heart of the city though which no doubt keeps temps up and delays the fall colors. 

I was there a week later in October last year and it looks like they're definitely further along right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Sorry to here that always keep those memories Phil she will continue to be with you inside your heart.It was hard when my Mom pass away a few years ago  very suddenly.

I'm sorry to hear this.

[smerfylicious]

Almost ready! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 5 minutes!

With the pattern change now sneaking inside Day 10 it seems it is now time to *officially* begin the Fall model riding season. How exciting? Right? We'll see. After the previous months of dry and warm, Summery weather and especially extending well into October this pattern shift is going to feel downright cold and take a bit to acclimate to. We may even see the first Cascade snowfall probably above 4000'. 'Tis the Season! C'MON!!!!

Think pattern change! C'MON!!!!

[Phishy Wx]

30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I was there a week later in October last year and it looks like they're definitely further along right now.

Urban Heat Island for sure.  I've seen green leaves around xmas on NYC streets in Manhattan.

[Omegaraptor]

Low of 37 at CVO this morning. How did I miss this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Sneaky little 80 at PDX.

 

More often than not PDX doesn't even make it to the 80s in October. Crazy to think that we might get to a dozen this October.

 

[Cloud]

Whoops!! was more tired than I thought if anyone caught my deleted post lol. Was looking at the wrong thing

[Omegaraptor]

Current record for latest 30C day on record for PDX is October 11, 1991.

May fall on Saturday.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 9'er

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Current record for latest 30C day on record for PDX is October 11, 1991.

May fall on Saturday.

We'll see what happens w the Nakia Creek Fire, but the Falls Fire back in 1991 ripped through parts of the Gorge in October. We've got some modest offshore flow in the near future, so fingers crossed things stay quiet. 

[Gradient Keeper]

10 Day Rainfall totals

[Doinko]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

10 Day Rainfall totals

Definitely not as good of a run so far, probably an outlier though compared to all other guidance right now. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Definitely not as good of a run so far, probably an outlier though compared to all other guidance right now. 

This run has everything so chopped up.  The trough just doesn't get as focused.  The ECMWF solutions have been fantastic though.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Current record for latest 30C day on record for PDX is October 11, 1991.

May fall on Saturday.

October 1991 was really the only thing that was interesting about the 1991-92 winter season.  That month had epic temperature swings and even lowland snow later on.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

October 1991 was really the only thing that was interesting about the 1991-92 winter season.  That month had epic temperature swings and even lowland snow later on.

October 1935 looks nice too, 5" of snow at Salem!

[snow_wizard]

Pretty lame GFS run.  It just never gets it's act together.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

October 1935 looks nice too, 5" of snow at Salem!

For sure.  1935 was a beast with freezing max temps well down into Western WA.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Do not look at the 00z GFS. GEM is looking like a nice setup.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

10 Day Rainfall totals

This all falls after Day 9'er by the way.

00z ECMWF in 49 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm surprised why anyone still takes the GFS Op, or any Op run so seriously after Day 6-7 if it's not looking great. We're not rookies here. Why do this to yourselves year after year.  All ensembles have been superb and timing has moved ahead too. I see no reason why the 00z GEFS won't show the major pattern shift.

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Do not look at the 00z GFS. GEM is looking like a nice setup.

GEM looks what the ensembles have been advertising.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[Cascadia_Wx]

If the last several months have taught me anything it’s to expect the worst, most extreme, statistically unlikely case scenario when it comes to continued heat and dryness around here. I don’t expect whatever happens later this month to buck this trend.

[MossMan]

Think Rain!! ️ 🌧 

Was in Monroe this evening for work and you could definitely see the smoke funneling down Highway 2. 
65/49 on the day, currently 49. 

[Cloud]

That was a big oof with the 0z GFS.. End of the month is coming into view so I'll be quite stunned if it played out that way but won't be shock either. 

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z ECMWF is unchanged and fully on board with a major pattern change!

[NWbyNW]

16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The 00z ECMWF is unchanged and fully on board with a major pattern change!

And with this, let the night shift begin!!! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Let's go!!! What's everybody drinking or smoking? Just got thru lighting up some good purple stuff.

[NWbyNW]

The three day outlook on the smoke models is not looking good for the Puget Sound and central Willamette Valley.  It looks like things could get very soupy and unhealthy.

As we stand right now, smoke is blowing east more and more each hour and it will excel over the weekend.  Right now the models are not looking good from what we can see.  This will be the deepest wildfire smoke season Washington State has ever had, and the most amount of days with smoke.  I will share totals when we get to the end of this season. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

The three day outlook on the smoke models is not looking good for the Puget Sound and central Willamette Valley.  It looks like things could get very soupy and unhealthy.

As we stand right now, smoke is blowing east more and more each hour and it will excel over the weekend.  Right now the models are not looking good from what we can see.  This will be the deepest wildfire smoke season Washington State has ever had, and the most amount of days with smoke.  I will share totals when we get to the end of this season. 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's go!!! What's everybody drinking or smoking? Just got thru lighting up some good purple stuff.

You’re living the good life.

i am working on a report for my boss rn

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's go!!! What's everybody drinking or smoking? Just got thru lighting up some good purple stuff.

Just had some cinnamon roasted almonds an hour ago. Uhhh, now nothing. If I can stay up another 20 minutes I'll be surprised.

6z GFS in 2 hours 8 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

You’re living the good life.

i am working on a report for my boss rn

I wish I could say that. I'm lucky in some ways and very unlucky in others. I've lived a rather peculiar life to say the least. Dirt poor and disabled yet schmoozed with lots of wealthy or even famous people cuz I was welcomed into a rich kid frat while racking up tens of thousands in student debt.

But I still did get my degree so there's that. My choice was Oregon or Oklahoma (out of state) and in retrospect I wouldn't have made it getting a BS in meteorology at Oklahoma because the math would've been beyond my level. 

A BA in geography from U of O is still fine.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wish I could say that. I'm lucky in some ways and very unlucky in others. I've lived a rather peculiar life to say the least. Dirt poor and disabled yet schmoozed with lots of wealthy or even famous people cuz I was welcomed into a rich kid frat while racking up tens of thousands in student debt.

Where did u go to college?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Where did u go to college?

University of Oregon graduated in 2008.

[NWbyNW]

18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's go!!! What's everybody drinking or smoking? 

Just some water and that's it right now.  I don't smoke.  Looking at weather models like a nerd at 12:40am in the morning on a work night.  Normal cool people things.

 

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's go!!! What's everybody drinking or smoking? Just got thru lighting up some good purple stuff.

Drinking on the job is frowned upon here. So water it is.

[Gradient Keeper]

Can't sleep, so here's the very chilly and wet EPS.

This will be a stark reminder to us all that Fall is here! Look how chilly this run is. The mean dips to 1.5c and large cluster of members are cooler even down to 0c with several below 0c! This would bring the first Cascade snowfall of the season. Let's just keep moving this ahead and hopefully in a few days see it moving inside Day 7!

[The Blob]

I see the first hints of rain on my phone app for the 22nd.