NWbyNW Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Requested by: 0 People. Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Make that zero a one!!! I love model comparisons. It's always a good source of a laugh! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 This radar of the precipitation the past few hours shows how crazy well the Olympic Mountains can sometimes protect the Hood Canal and Seattle from rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 5 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Are there magnolia trees (and magnolia cones) in the PNW? We do have Magnolias up here, and more varieties. The only thing is we don't get as many blooms as SoCal gets for their trees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 9'er ehhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Euro definitely shows a big shift north with the Atmospheric River on Sunday/Monday putting it more in line with the GFS. It's also warmer meaning there's significantly less mountain snow. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 36 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: This radar of the precipitation the past few hours shows how crazy well the Olympic Mountains can sometimes protect the Hood Canal and Seattle from rain. They do a good job, but it's also not raining particularly hard in most of the locations outside the direct rain shadow. I've been under radar returns for four hours and have only picked up 0.03". 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Long range AR very wet! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Long range AR very wet! Yeah, I was going to say, despite my earlier comment, this run ends up even wetter than the previous run for most places. Drier in the short term is replaced by that AR at the end. 3 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said: Yeah, I was going to say, despite my earlier comment, this run ends up even wetter than the previous run for most places. Drier in the short term is replaced by that AR at the end. I think an AR looks very plausible. 6z GFS in 2 hours 31 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 Looks like it's going somewhere good in the end 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 The pattern would support a bunch more rain after Day 10 too. 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 38 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 That is a tremendously interesting pattern the ECMWF is showing late in the run. Classic AR and a classic precursor to major cold. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Looks like it's going somewhere good in the end This is the setup where an AR can go to snow on the north side of the zone if it sustains long enough. Saw some stuff like this in 1990. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That is a tremendously interesting pattern the ECMWF is showing late in the run. Classic AR and a classic precursor to major cold. Agreed, and we could see that progression too. Here we go!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 I am somewhat eager to see how the EPS looks Day 7+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I am somewhat eager to see how the EPS looks Day 7+ Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 10 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 11 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 12 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Day 13 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Diggggggggggggg! Digggggggggg! Well that's not bad. Slide the block a bit more ----> 00z ECMWF in 22 hours 3 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Damn that is close. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Run to run change is very good on this EPS run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: D**n that is close. The Control is Sexy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 The ECMWF still shows we could have a cold night or two the middle of next week too. I'm dying for the first frost. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Judah won't like this! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: The Control is Sexy It certainly is. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 We could see some downright frightful and ghoulishly cold model runs on Halloween! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 I wonder what the weeklies will show later today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 Control run is pretty boring TBH. We barely even get below 40F at any point. 850s barely get down to -2F or so for like 1 frame. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Control run is pretty boring TBH. We barely even get below 40F at any point. 850s barely get down to -2F or so for like 1 frame. I think the biggest takeway is that colder air starts moving down through BC. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 27, 2022 Report Share Posted October 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I wonder what the weeklies will show later today Man, that is lobe-a-licious. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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