October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Kolk1604]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The Nina version of 2006! 

You read my mind! 

[Randyc321]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wind! I had all things weather today, took a drive to Wenatchee and back for work today. Was light rain snow mix at the top of Stevens early this morning, sun and fairly warm in Wenatchee, lots of soldering stumps along the burn area just west of Skykomish, and wind back at home. Apparently the power dropped a few times for a few seconds at the house but didn’t stay out. The color between Leavenworth and the pass was lovely. 

D**n, we live in an awesome place.

Nice pics @MossMan

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Randyc321]

The first drops of rain just getting here now.  

[Kolk1604]

Who is this guy? 

Then it one of his replies, it kind of sounds like he believes it because it has support of the MJO and PV even THOUGH it's the GFS and 384 hours out... Twitter needs a Weiner button next to like 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Who is this guy? 

Then it one of his replies, it kind of sounds like he believes it because it has support of the MJO and PV even THOUGH it's the GFS and 384 hours out... Twitter needs a Weiner button next to like 

 

 

Wow. Talk about full-blown weenie mode and taking grasping at straws literally like its his job.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Who is this guy? 

Then it one of his replies, it kind of sounds like he believes it because it has support of the MJO and PV even THOUGH it's the GFS and 384 hours out... Twitter needs a Weiner button next to like 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[RentonHill]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

[Kolk1604]

Watch out Guys! Here comes a big flip to +PNA 

The Op is Negative, the Ensembles are negative, and so is the extended. (Okay, Okay, it goes positive brefiley and then back to negative) 

Again it's the GFS. The Euro is negative into the middle of December 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Looking very EURO now.

[Randyc321]

Radar is blowing up.  The sound is filling quickly.  Bring on the AR

[Gradient Keeper]

Well was trying to go EURO.

[Kolk1604]

Here's an 18z GFS vs GEFS comparison 

[Gradient Keeper]

9:21 PM Radar Update

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[Anti Marine Layer]

Some trees are accustomed to dry weather and drought, so it's not as barren and dead here as Jesse may imagine. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Lame with that ridge just floating offshore and slowly drifting towards us. I hope the GFS Ensembles disagree.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The N/S QPF gradient this winter is going to put 2020 to shame. Just brutal. 

[Snownerd3000]

54 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Who is this guy? 

Then it one of his replies, it kind of sounds like he believes it because it has support of the MJO and PV even THOUGH it's the GFS and 384 hours out... Twitter needs a Weiner button next to like 

 

 

Musk is in charge now, it's coming 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The N/S QPF gradient this winter is going to put 2020 to shame. Just brutal. 

Ah yes, the "winter" where our coldest temp was 23F on Oct 26...

We are at 0.79" for the month...

[Randyc321]

30 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Some trees are accustomed to dry weather and drought, so it's not as barren and dead here as Jesse may imagine. 

Oh yes the beautiful eucalyptus trees.  I had somehow managed to forget about them.

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

What was he trying to embellish? If you go back and read a bit, you can see that he tried to dodge a rolling garbage can that caused the truck to roll over. The only organization doing any kind of embellishing was KOMO radio saying the the truck rolled over due to high winds. 

Well it technically kind of did roll over due to high winds....I mean, it's not like the garbage can was suicidal, got up and ran into traffic on its own accord.

 

[Omegaraptor]

33 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The N/S QPF gradient this winter is going to put 2020 to shame. Just brutal. 

Pretty typical stuff for fall as I've said. Not uncommon in southern OR and CA for dry season to go well into fall and even early winter and then have things flip big.

Remember, the 2018-19 wet season started with an entire town in northern CA burning down in mid-November (with smoke reaching as far north as WA). It ended with northern CA constantly being pounded with storms and record rainfall while we were sitting bone dry under Rex Block ridges.

[Gradient Keeper]

Dang just fell asleep, but ready for a good EURO run....

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Jbolin]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wind! I had all things weather today, took a drive to Wenatchee and back for work today. Was light rain snow mix at the top of Stevens early this morning, sun and fairly warm in Wenatchee, lots of soldering stumps along the burn area just west of Skykomish, and wind back at home. Apparently the power dropped a few times for a few seconds at the house but didn’t stay out. The color between Leavenworth and the pass was lovely. 

There are still signs of the absolutely massive Hatchery Creek fire (July 27, 1994) in Tumwater canyon between Coles Corner and Leavenworth.

Nearly 150K acres burned before it was finally extinguished by mother nature. 

Included image is from US-2 just east of the Swiftwater Picnic area and just before the local sheriff's office closed the road.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[MikeInEverett]

BTW for those that have been discussing it; WestSeattleWx is back on Twitter again. That guy has done this dozens of times over the years. Whenever he does that, always expect to see him active again within the next couple days. 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Who is this guy? 

Then it one of his replies, it kind of sounds like he believes it because it has support of the MJO and PV even THOUGH it's the GFS and 384 hours out... Twitter needs a Weiner button next to like 

 

 

I have a very limited scope on meteorology compared to the knowledgeable folk on here cause I'm still learning, but even I know that this is just so rubbish lol. It's the GFS that's 360+ hours out.

I don't wanna get into a late night rant, but it bothers me when some of these East Coast meteorologists act like their winter's a dud when that other half of the country reliably gets cold waves, nor'easters, snowstorms, active cold weather, etc. Maybe not every year but it's consistent there. Whereas I still look fondly to 2008, 2019, and 2021 with breadcrumbs in between, and I gotta treasure those moments cause you never know when it'll happen again. 

I got no platform to complain cause I don't really know anything but man.. 

[MikeInEverett]

Here’s to a good winter!! Bought a condo with my now wife in downtown Everett over the summer so I’m hoping for some amazing convergence zone activity this year! It’s coming..