October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, MossMan said:

Slightly breezy at Soccer practice. 

Playing soccer in those conditions are brutal as an adult.  It's not quite as bad for the kids (especially the little ones) as they rarely get the ball in the air that much.

 

ARs are their worst foe.  I had a FB memory pop up yesterday from one of my son's soccer games, and there was 1-3" of standing water over about 60% of the field.  They were running around flailing at the ball, water splashing everywhere.  Then one would connect with the ball, it would go about 10 yards, hit another puddle and splash to a stop.  The whole team as a soaked muddy mess afterwards.  Good times!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

This thing is going to bust so hard for Portland and areas south today. We might get .10''. 

[Meatyorologist]

8 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I have a very limited scope on meteorology compared to the knowledgeable folk on here cause I'm still learning, but even I know that this is just so rubbish lol. It's the GFS that's 360+ hours out.

I don't wanna get into a late night rant, but it bothers me when some of these East Coast meteorologists act like their winter's a dud when that other half of the country reliably gets cold waves, nor'easters, snowstorms, active cold weather, etc. Maybe not every year but it's consistent there. Whereas I still look fondly to 2008, 2019, and 2021 with breadcrumbs in between, and I gotta treasure those moments cause you never know when it'll happen again. 

I got no platform to complain cause I don't really know anything but man.. 

I always had the same sentiment as a kid, especially after the 09-10 and 12-13 seasons. Real whiny for a place that usually gets a blockbuster snowstorm every other year.

[MossMan]

.70” so far on the day, 3.24” for the month. 
46 degrees. 

[MossMan]

If I remember correctly we were still at 0.00” for the month at this time last Friday! 3.24” since then. 

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Models show that band of heavy rain clearing the Seattle area by mid-morning and most of the day and tomorrow look dry and pleasant.    Then warm front drizzle on Sunday.

SEA should end the month around +3 and much drier than normal.   

Hmmm, dry and pleasant...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Hmmm, dry and pleasant...

I think its nice to have a mix... going to get some yard work done tomorrow.  

[MikeInEverett]

5 hours ago, Cloud said:

He just deactivated again.. As I said before, he's done this quite a few times over the course of his time on this platform. He was on Twitter posting a lot of stuff today from personal stuff (he did gave an insight on why he made the decision to deactivate) to Wx related stuff... then poof, gone again.

I do know that he has been active on here before (I just can’t for the life of me remember his username), so maybe he read our posts about being active again and decided to deactivate.. again. Either way I hope he gets the help he needs. He always gave good insight and seemed like a good dude, I’ve followed him for the last ten years or so since I was a kid.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Models show that band of heavy rain clearing the Seattle area by mid-morning and most of the day and tomorrow look dry and pleasant.    Then warm front drizzle on Sunday.

Plenty of rain to your north on the weekend. I’m set to score 3" or more!

[MossMan]

39 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Playing soccer in those conditions are brutal as an adult.  It's not quite as bad for the kids (especially the little ones) as they rarely get the ball in the air that much.

 

ARs are their worst foe.  I had a FB memory pop up yesterday from one of my son's soccer games, and there was 1-3" of standing water over about 60% of the field.  They were running around flailing at the ball, water splashing everywhere.  Then one would connect with the ball, it would go about 10 yards, hit another puddle and splash to a stop.  The whole team as a soaked muddy mess afterwards.  Good times!

Yeah in that regard we lucked out big time, their little soccer league started right after Labor Day and their last game is tomorrow…other than the wind yesterday, every single practice and game was dry and pleasant (for soccer) One practice and one game was canceled due to smoke however. Both kids start indoor soccer next week. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Here it comes!

Quote

4:57 AM PDT Friday 28 October 2022
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
• Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
• Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
• Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
• Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Heavy rain and strong wind expected.

Location: South Coast including Vancouver Island.

Timespan: Saturday night to Sunday night.

Remarks: An atmospheric river will bring continuous rain and mild temperatures to the south coast from Saturday night to Sunday night. Significant amounts of rainfall will fall during this period and rainfall warnings are likely to be issued as the event nears. The mild temperatures will elevate snow levels and precipitation along the highway passes will fall as rain.

Strong southeast winds are expected to develop through the Strait of Georgia for Saturday night and Sunday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

 

[MossMan]

The backpack blower will be getting a workout today. 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Playing soccer in those conditions are brutal as an adult.  It's not quite as bad for the kids (especially the little ones) as they rarely get the ball in the air that much.

 

ARs are their worst foe.  I had a FB memory pop up yesterday from one of my son's soccer games, and there was 1-3" of standing water over about 60% of the field.  They were running around flailing at the ball, water splashing everywhere.  Then one would connect with the ball, it would go about 10 yards, hit another puddle and splash to a stop.  The whole team as a soaked muddy mess afterwards.  Good times!

Yep. I played a soccer game in Sedro-Woolley when I was a kid that was so wet the ball spent more time floating than on the ground. Some of the soccer fields there are in depressions and I think we picked up an inch of rain or something during the game. One section of the field was more than knee deep by the last whistle.

0.53 on the day and 0.74" total overnight. 2.08" on the month now.

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plenty of rain to your north on the weekend. I’m set to score 3" or more!

Where will be the cutoff line for the moisture? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Frost possible next week. 

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where will be the cutoff line for the moisture? 

It might rain a bit at your house according to the WRF. Half of this falls during the day on Sunday, and half falls Sunday night.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Ag Weather update yesterday talked about the beginning of the end of the Nina starting now as the trade winds weaken and the AAM increases.  They are thinking the jet stream will become much more active later in November with a deep Bering Sea trough forming and storms ejecting storms into the West.   

We will see.  

 

Can you share the link to the full vid? 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where will be the cutoff line for the moisture? 

You will be in the sweet spot all day tomorrow... then a warm front light rain/drizzle day on Sunday for western WA with a pronounced rain shadow over the Seattle area.     Today and tomorrow are the days for yard work.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It might rain a bit at your house according to the WRF. Half of this falls during the day on Sunday, and half falls Sunday night.

I just hope we get some drying Monday night for trick or treating

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I just hope we get some drying Monday night for trick or treating

 

Not looking good for Halloween per the ECMWF... the GFS is more favorable with faster timing.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Can you share the link to the full vid? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q94rmrfcTik

[Snownerd3000]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q94rmrfcTik

Dude this is a fantastic channel!  Loving the explanations he gives.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dude this is a fantastic channel!  Loving the explanations he gives.

Totally agree... someone linked us to his updates over the summer and now I watch all of them.    New updates come out each Monday and Thursday afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Between the constant spam of every frame of every model run and obsessing over when the next sun break might be, the quality of content on here is at an all time low. 

[Snownerd3000]

Look at those waters cool off our coast into the GoA.  Love to see the trend.  I'd expect with our active pattern this will continue to cool into winter.

[gusky]

Forgot to post these yesterday but these were some of the coolest clouds I’ve ever seen.

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its nice to have a mix... going to get some yard work done tomorrow.  

Just different preferences.  It just started raining for the year, so I am naturally going to want more.   Just the way I'm wired I guess. I will want some sun eventually, but for now I'm looking for stormy weather.

[gusky]

I don't know if I want member 4 to verify or not... 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Between the constant spam of every frame of every model run and obsessing over when the next sun break might be, the quality of content on here is at an all time low. 

Wow... really unnecessary.    No one is obsessing over anything.  We are just talking about short term and long term, big picture trends.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... really unnecessary.    No one is obsessing over anything.  We are just talking about short term and long term, big picture trends.

Why do you think I was posting about you? At least you post Weatherbell maps. I think we all appreciate that. 

Edited October 28, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Randyc321]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Between the constant spam of every frame of every model run and obsessing over when the next sun break might be, the quality of content on here is at an all time low. 

When was it much higher?  It's at least civil for the most part here now, and we are seeing some new people join.

The main difference on here lately is we have been chasing rain like it was snow.  Model riding started quick this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

When was it much higher?  It's at least civil for the most part here now, and we are seeing some new people join.

The main difference on here lately is we have been chasing rain like it was snow.  Model riding started quick this year.

Yeah, don't mind my cranky a**. 

But seriously, I think we are riding a little early this year, November is usually a slog... I do get the vibe this winter may be a little more front loaded though... 

[Omegaraptor]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Between the constant spam of every frame of every model run and obsessing over when the next sun break might be, the quality of content on here is at an all time low. 

We need a windstorm or something.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

We need a windstorm or something.

We need a true arctic blast. 

[Jbolin]

3 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Where do i find the sit-on-my-facebook?

Ask your mom

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We need a true arctic blast. 

I hear tales that they used the have them here as late as the 2016-17 winter. This is only the record longest stretch without one.

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, MillCreekMike said:

I do know that he has been active on here before (I just can’t for the life of me remember his username), so maybe he read our posts about being active again and decided to deactivate.. again. Either way I hope he gets the help he needs. He always gave good insight and seemed like a good dude, I’ve followed him for the last ten years or so since I was a kid.

Whatever, I'm sure most couldn't care less by now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I hear tales that they used the have them here as late as the 2016-17 winter. This is only the record longest stretch without one.

We didn't really have a true arctic blast that winter. I would say we had 3 modified arctic airmasses, the one in mid-December, and two in January. The last real regional arctic blast we had was in December 2013. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I won't post every frame, but the 00z CFS is pretty cold and active for the 2nd half of November. At face value we would have huge snow pack and plentiful lowland snow chances. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As you can see... The CFS has totally flipped for November.