October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Sonny Summers]

I'm a fan of the EPS. I can live with that.

[Gradient Keeper]

How much precip does the EPS show?

[Kolk1604]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mean

Control

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS. I didn't notice this earlier, but Day 6.5 cold air is charging south towards the Canadian border.

Day 7.5 cold air is starting to spill into Northeast Washington and the Upper Columbia Basin. Modified arctic air is not far behind. Hmmm!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Precip totals are insane. I would be surprised if we even see half of this, but who knows.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F, we should hopefully get down into the 30s.

[Gradient Keeper]

This concludes the night shift model riding. I will let the morning shift take over from here. I do think in 3-4 days model runs may turn quite exciting indeed. Good night all!

12z GFS in 3 hours 53 minutes
12z ECMWF in 7 hours 3 minutes

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

That block over the Bering Sea, that is VERY STRONG!

[Meatyorologist]

It would get pretty stinkin' thundery about a month after these two lovely individuals immortalized themselves on this rail line.

[Meatyorologist]

Some shocking reports say sooner than a month, but I was asleep for those events so they don't count

[Skagit Weather]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z CMCE Precip totals are insane. I would be surprised if we even see half of this, but who knows.

I feel like the general rule with anything related to the Canadian is to cut the estimates in half for a more realistic prediction. For lowland snow it may even be better to go with 30-40%.

[LowerGarfield]

34F outside. Coldest temperature yet this fall.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

34F outside. Coldest temperature yet this fall.

Looks like its going warm up nicely over there today with southerly flow ahead of trough... should be a great evening for the Cougs game against Utah.

[bainbridgekid]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z CMCE Precip totals are insane. I would be surprised if we even see half of this, but who knows.

Looks like it's just not run at a high enough resolution to see the Olympics and Coast Range at all. Those totals look reasonable for the mountains, but there's no way Seattle and Portland would see nearly as much as the Coast and mountains.

[umadbro]

Oh snap!

[FroYoBro]

First morning to dip into the 30s here. 39.

Edited October 27, 2022 by FroYoBro

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up early for a dentist appointment...and to watch the morning GFS.

[Kolk1604]

To all the east weather weenies! 

La Nina conditions--which bring colder and wetter than normal conditions to our region, particularly after the New Year-- have strengthened and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center keeps La Nina around into mid-winter (see below). 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

46! Cloudy skies kept things to a relatively mild 46°F overnight. 0.46" precip since yesterday afternoon.

2.98" for the month so far.

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

46! Cloudy skies kept things to a relatively mild 46°F overnight. 0.46" precip since yesterday afternoon.

2.98" for the month so far.

Windy and mild this morning with the occasional brief but tropical like downpour.  Our monthly mean temp has been knocked down to +7.4F so far. 

[Skagit Weather]

Speaking of wet runs, pretty sure this would be the mother-of-all flood scenarios shown on the Canadian. Just in case you didn't notice, this is only the 48 hour precip forecast. It shows 6" in 24 hours in Bellingham...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Speaking of wet runs, pretty sure this would be the mother-of-all flood scenarios shown on the Canadian. Just in case you didn't notice, this is only the 48 hour precip forecast. It shows 6" in 24 hours in Bellingham...

The 0.6" it shows in Bakersfield Eugene is almost as climatologically impressive.

[The Blob]

Clear and sunny here, looks like a nice day coming up

[NWbyNW]

Very blustery morning.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like the GEM and last nights Euro are similar at day 10

 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Shaping up to be a wet and blustery day here.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Very blustery morning.   

Yep

Kids patio umbrella is in our neighbors tree

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

966mb low off the Olympic Peninsula in the LR. T'would be a bit breezy...

A crushing wet snow fall for east Vancouver island. ️