October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Now where does this run go from here. A few possibilities. Atmospheric River, another cold trough, or ridge floats towards us.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS vs GEFS Model comparison. GEFS holds a pretty strong signal for a block over Alaska and southeast/eastern US.

GFS

GEFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the EURO. Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

40 minutes ago, JBolin said:

There are still signs of the absolutely massive Hatchery Creek fire (July 27, 1994) in Tumwater canyon between Coles Corner and Leavenworth.

Nearly 150K acres burned before it was finally extinguished by mother nature. 

Included image is from US-2 just east of the Swiftwater Picnic area and just before the local sheriff's office closed the road.

 

who would stand next to a forest fire tf

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Here’s to a good winter!! Bought a condo with my now wife in downtown Everett over the summer so I’m hoping for some amazing convergence zone activity this year! It’s coming..

Congratulations !!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS. Lookie there! Chilly members showing up long range. Hmmm!

Seattle

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF run looks like the best one yet for a legit cold night the middle of next week.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS. Lookie there! Chilly members showing up long range. Hmmm!

Seattle

So it begins.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

That just reeks of potnential.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That just reeks of potnential.

I see a lot of that ahead. Models could be quite intriguing on Halloween 00z! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

who would stand next to a forest fire tf

Right?  I just googled [Has Gary Coleman ever seen a forest fire] and no results. Not a single one. HOWEVER, this is mighty interesting. Tell me this isn't a sign. It's creepy like wtf.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ah lawd I do crack myself up!

6z GFS in 2 hours 40 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the jaw dropping EURO! Day 10..... Wow. SO much potential as we move into November folks!

[selkirks]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Back to the jaw dropping EURO! Day 10..... Wow. SO much potential as we move into November folks!

Insane blocking.  I hope that's a theme this winter.

[snow_wizard]

53 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

BTW for those that have been discussing it; WestSeattleWx is back on Twitter again. That guy has done this dozens of times over the years. Whenever he does that, always expect to see him active again within the next couple days. 

It sounds like the guy has some serious issues though.  I hope he properly deals with that.

[Gradient Keeper]

C'mon EPS deliver! DO IT!!!!

[Sonny Summers]

31 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Right?  I just googled [Has Gary Coleman ever seen a forest fire] and no results. Not a single one. HOWEVER, this is mighty interesting. Tell me this isn't a sign. It's creepy like wtf.

 

He was a tiny terror. Don't you dare pinch his cheeks and ask for an autograph. He looks guilty in those photographs. Somebody pushed homeboy too far.

[NWbyNW]

If the models are right, highs next week will struggle to get out of the 40s in the Puget Sound.

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

C'mon EPS deliver! DO IT!!!!

Best run yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Best run yet.

Oh? Please do share.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

who would stand next to a forest fire tf

Ummm, those folks, b/c there was NO twatter, instacrap, sit-on-my-facebook, whapchat, or any other instant "look at this s***" platform in 1994.

You either saw it in person or took a photo and waited a week to tell your "amazing, awesome" story, BRO.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS and EPS both have the PNA and EPO solidly minus for week two now.  No doubt that would mean cold.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Oh? Please do share.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That just reeks of potnential.

You shouldn't talk about Tim like that.

Oops, my bad, you said POTENTIAL, nvm.

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This...does...not...suck.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Slide that block a bit ---> and dig that trough, then we could see an early November cold shot!

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Slide that block a bit ---> and dig that trough, then we could see an early November cold shot!

The control has been pretty cold on recent runs.  Certainly a decent shot it will set up right.

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, MillCreekMike said:

BTW for those that have been discussing it; WestSeattleWx is back on Twitter again. That guy has done this dozens of times over the years. Whenever he does that, always expect to see him active again within the next couple days. 

You sure about that? The account is still deactivated.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, JSnowlin said:

You sure about that? The account is still deactivated.

He just deactivated again.. As I said before, he's done this quite a few times over the course of his time on this platform. He was on Twitter posting a lot of stuff today from personal stuff (he did gave an insight on why he made the decision to deactivate) to Wx related stuff... then poof, gone again.

[Brennan]

Old Farmers Almanac calls for snow and cold weather in the PNW in early to mid November... I think... Lines up with long range models... IT IS HAPPENING!

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Brennan said:

Old Farmers Almanac calls for snow and cold weather in the PNW in early to mid November... I think... Lines up with long range models... IT IS HAPPENING!

So you no longer live in SC?    I am confused.

[TT-SEA]

Models show that band of heavy rain clearing the Seattle area by mid-morning and most of the day and tomorrow look dry and pleasant.    Then warm front drizzle on Sunday.

SEA should end the month around +3 and much drier than normal.   

[Snownerd3000]

5 hours ago, JSnowlin said:

Ummm, those folks, b/c there was NO twatter, instacrap, sit-on-my-facebook, whapchat, or any other instant "look at this s***" platform in 1994.

You either saw it in person or took a photo and waited a week to tell your "amazing, awesome" story, BRO.

Where do i find the sit-on-my-facebook?

[umadbro]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Not quite there yet.

[TT-SEA]

Ag Weather update yesterday talked about the beginning of the end of the Nina starting now as the trade winds weaken and the AAM increases.  They are thinking the jet stream will become much more active later in November with a deep Bering Sea trough forming and storms ejecting storms into the West.   

We will see.