October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I think December is in play, January is looking like a lost cause. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

I don't know if I want member 4 to verify or not... 

I BELIEVE I BELIEVE 

[smerfylicious]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point I think December is in play, January is looking like a lost cause. 

[TacomaWx]

Low of 49 again this morning…AR wasn’t a big precip maker here 0.16” today and 1.26” MTD. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PDX has picked up a quarter inch today. Just started raining here in Keizer. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we made it to 57F. Still dry but it's definitely darkening up so the frontal band should be here in a bit.

[HuskyMaestro]

Massive supersoaker of a system on my home country right now. I think this TS superimposed in the Gulf of Mexico would take up the whole basin?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we made it to 57F. Still dry but it's definitely darkening up so the frontal band should be here in a bit.

Not sure much is going to make it down there with this round. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure much is going to make it down there with this round. 

Well we can hope for something. Feels like we're all too used to not getting anywhere close to our average anymore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Well we can hope for something. Feels like we're all too used to not getting anywhere close to our average anymore.

This is as far south as the GFS takes the precip. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 61F. Anybody else get there today?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 61F. Anybody else get there today?

When I was driving to the bank in Keizer about an hour ago my car thermometer said 61, it started raining right when I got there and was 54 when I came back out 20 minutes later. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO delivers a November 2006 redux. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO delivers a November 2006 redux. 

We had 7 inches in one day here in November 2006.    That is a far cry from November 2006 for this area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We had 7 inches in one day here in November 2006.    That is a far cry from November 2006.   

Silver Falls recorded 6.69" in a day with that too. Looks like the EURO spits out about 4.5" in a 24 hour period here, so yeah, probably not going to be a once in a Century type event like that, but still interesting seeing the GEM and EURO show some pretty prolific AR's in that time period on some of their runs. The GFS is NOT on board. 

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like SEA will just barely avoid a record warm October. Based on the NWS forecasts, SEA should end up around 57.5F for the monthly average which is just below 2014's 58.0F average temp. If the days run a little cooler we could fall to third warmest behind the 57.2F 2015.

Of course the average high (which will probably end up around 66F) should blow the next highest out of the water of 65.4 from 1987. Meanwhile, the average low (which will be around 49F) should end up somewhere in the top 5 or 6 warmest.

[Randyc321]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO delivers a November 2006 redux. 

Didn't Nov 2006 come with snow, a windstorm, and then bitter cold?

Wait, that was after an AR wasn't it?

Or, did I dream it?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11.56" here on this run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Didn't Nov 2006 come with snow, a windstorm, and then bitter cold?

Wait, that was after an AR wasn't it?

Or, did I dream it?  

I think the snow was more towards the end of the month. 

Up here that would have been an absolutely epic November. About 25" of rain and about 12" of snow at the end of the month. And that's how much snow they recorded at the park, so probably more like 15-20" of snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All that being said, I don't really love the EURO and where it ends up, but who knows. The progression on the CFS was pretty great. FWIW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The EC is pretty boring. We get all the way down to 37F on one morning and most of the rest of the days look above normal. That precip will likely get significantly reduced here or trend north. We just don't see significant rain or winter weather below freezing here anymore.

[Doinko]

Raining heavily now

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The EC is pretty boring. We get all the way down to 37F on one morning and most of the rest of the days look above normal. That precip will likely get significantly reduced here or trend north. We just don't see significant rain or winter weather below freezing here anymore.

Didn’t u have significant snowstorms in 2019 and 2021 that was 3x your average?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The EC is pretty boring. We get all the way down to 37F on one morning and most of the rest of the days look above normal. That precip will likely get significantly reduced here or trend north. We just don't see significant rain or winter weather below freezing here anymore.

It's November homie. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's November homie. 

Not even November yet lol 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not even November yet lol 

I believe it's Septober 68th

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I believe it's Septober 68th

Correct.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

24 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Didn’t u have significant snowstorms in 2019 and 2021 that was 3x your average?

Snow yes, below freezing, no. They've been borderline setups that were great. I was speaking to appreciable cold and Arctic airmasses digging this far south. This run was pretty standard fall weather here anymore. I'd rather save the possible cold for later.

The plan is still in play. And just because it's boring here doesn't mean it's shitt everywhere in the region. See, Feb 2021 (which did not include the SW part of the region).

I'd also rather it be boring now and something exciting happening later...the plan.

[Gradient Keeper]

I really hope the 12z EPS doesn't float that ridge over us Day 7+ like the Op. Nope!

18z GFS in 1 hour 43 minutes

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like a beautiful day in Bellingham. Sun is on the way South and should reach Seattle by 3pm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I really hope the 12z EPS doesn't float that ridge over us Day 7+ like the Op. Nope!

18z GFS in 1 hour 43 minutes

Even if it does, it'll be fine in Dec-Jan.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snow yes, below freezing, no. They've been borderline setups that were great. I was speaking to appreciable cold and Arctic airmasses digging this far south.

The plan is still in play. And just because it's boring here doesn't mean it's shitt everywhere in the region. See, Feb 2021 (which did not include the SW part of the region).

Some of the best snow falls happen in borderline setups. 

[RentonHill]

Lets do some deep dive into individual frames of the Euro run.

Hour 162: Divergences appear between EPS Control and the Euro operational

Hour 240: EPS Control looks like GFS run with the trough digging along wcoast. Operational builds some ridging over us and pushes everything east. 

Hour 240: EPS Mean still favors the troughing over west coast vs. Operational

Hour 240: EPS Mean vs previous run shows a notable shift towards what the 12z Operational shows.  

Hour 240: EPS and GEFS both split...GEFS moved towards the east vs its 00z run (not showed)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of the best snow falls happen in borderline setups. 

Definitely. And we have seen plenty of it. I hear of things like blowing snow and drifting and I've never really seen or experienced that so it would be cool if it one day it can happen here. But the dynamics necessary would require some sort of exceedingly rare setup where we need the proper full column to cooperate. I think it's been like 9 years since the last really appreciable Arctic setup here, which is a long time when looking through ACIS.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Shaping up to be a sunny afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Definitely. And we have seen plenty of it. I hear of things like blowing snow and drifting and I've never really seen or experienced that so it would be cool it one day it can happen here. But the dynamics necessary would require some sort of exceedingly rare setup where we need the proper full column to cooperate. I think it's been like 9 years since the last really appreciable Arctic setup here, which is a long time when looking through ACIS.

Honestly Salem south to Eugene is not the worst place to be with actual arctic FROPA when looking at things from a historical perspective. Sometimes PDX gets too much gorge outflow. During a regional outbreak, further down the valley is usually going to do better. Unfortunately gap events featuring N/S gradients are more common. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly Salem south to Eugene is not the worst place to be with actual arctic FROPA when looking at things from a historical perspective. Sometimes PDX gets too much gorge outflow. During a regional outbreak, further down the valley is usually going to do better. Unfortunately gap events featuring N/S gradients are more common. 

For sure. I'm not going to make some sort of delusional claim like I expect Arctic airmasses every other year. That would be incredibly unlikely, especially in our warming era. Only way I would ever get that is for our family to move, and the rest of them all dislike cold and snow so I'm stuck.

But 9 years is a long time, even in a warming regime. And it makes me sad that I've gone longer than maybe anyone else on here without experiencing a sub-freezing high, now well over 2,000 days since the last one for me. Maybe Mr. Marine Layer has gone longer, not sure if he's made it up to the Sierra?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of the best snow falls happen in borderline setups. 

In the lowlands, this is typically the case. If arctic air is in ample supply, it is typically too dry for there to be much if any snow. It’s the borderline setups that can be juiced up with plenty of marine-origin moisture and deliver the big snowfalls.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

For sure. I'm not going to make some sort of delusional claim like I expect Arctic airmasses every other year. That would be incredibly unlikely, especially in our warming era. Only way I would ever get that is for our family to move, and the rest of them all dislike cold and snow so I'm stuck.

But 9 years is a long time, even in a warming regime. And it makes me sad that I've gone longer than maybe anyone else on here without experiencing a sub-freezing high, now well over 2,000 days since the last one for me. Maybe Mr. Marine Layer has gone longer, not sure if he's made it up to the Sierra?

Everyone north of Albany got screwed in December 2013. So there is that...

[bainbridgekid]

4 hours ago, gusky said:

I don't know if I want member 4 to verify or not... 

Pretty fascinating to think what would need to happen for it to snow 35” on November 10th in 24 hours in Seattle.