October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[GHweatherChris]

Low of 37 this morning.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The current CPC forecast shows that the PNA will rise more toward Sub negative PNA in the next couple of weeks.

We'll see.  The EPS shows still below -1 at the end of the run.  It also shows EPO dropping at the end which might signal a chillier / drier regime as we get into Nov.

[snow_wizard]

It is rather interesting to see that OR has strong onshore flow today, but WA is in a much weaker variable wind pattern.  This first storm came in pretty far south.  Not a typical first storm after such a long drought.

[Deweydog]

HEAVY RAIN

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I use the outer part to capture the snow to get the water equivalent, but no doubt a snow board is good for measuring the actual depth.  I work at a countertop place so I was able to replace my snowboard with a piece of Corian.  A nice upgrade!

You live in an east wind area right? How do you measure snow when the wind is blowing really hard? I also live in an area that gets a strong east wind and it can get hard to figure out how much snow is there during most of our bigger events.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

You live in an east wind area right? How do you measure snow when the wind is blowing really hard? I also live in an area that gets a strong east wind and it can get hard to figure out how much snow is there during most of our bigger events.

Take many measurements in your least exposed areas and average them out.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

You live in an east wind area right? How do you measure snow when the wind is blowing really hard? I also live in an area that gets a strong east wind and it can get hard to figure out how much snow is there during most of our bigger events.

I had to completely guess in Feb 2021.  It was ridiculous trying to figure it out.  Even averaging out a bunch of places doesn't work, because the wind causes the crystals to pack much tighter than normal.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Take many measurements in your least exposed areas and average them out.

I'll try that if we get a big snow event this winter. Sometimes even that's hard though! In January 2017 I assume we had around 13" but the entire yard was just inundated with snow and drifts everywhere. It was amazing!
February 2014 was also nice, I remember near blizzard conditions on the 6th.

[Sonny Summers]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It is rather interesting to see that OR has strong onshore flow today, but WA is in a much weaker variable wind pattern.  This first storm came in pretty far south.  Not a typical first storm after such a long drought.

Oddball storm, Tri-Cities picked up ~.6-.7 inches of rain from the storm, which was more than the amount Spokane received.

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I had to completely guess in Feb 2021.  It was ridiculous trying to figure it out.  Even averaging out a bunch of places doesn't work, because the wind causes the crystals to pack much tighter than normal.

Yeah here the combination of wind, sleet, ice and snow made it basically impossible to measure.

[MossMan]

.23” so far on the day, .64” for the month, 35.25” for the year. 
Currently partly sunny and 47. 

[Meatyorologist]

Update!

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Oddball storm, Tri-Cities picked up ~.6-.7 inches of rain from the storm, which was more than the amount Spokane received.

Very good observation.  I hadn't even thought of that oddity.

[snow_wizard]

Right now it is a mind blowing 42 degrees lower than it was at this time 6 days ago IMBY!  This is up there with the all time great crashes.

[Doinko]

Oregon Department of Forestry's analogs for the winter
Primary:
   - 1999-2000
   - 2008-2009
   - 2011-2012
Runner up:
   - 1971-1972
   - 1956-1957

[MossMan]

Looks a little more like late October now! 

[Deweydog]

SUNSHINE!!!

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oregon Department of Forestry's analogs for the winter
Primary:
   - 1999-2000
   - 2008-2009 🌧
   - 2011-2012 ️
Runner up:
   - 1971-1972
   - 1956-1957 Not sure what that one was like. 

Added to your post! 

[selkirks]

Pretty heavy band over NE Seattle right now. 

[Doinko]

Just now, MossMan said:

Added to your post! 

January 1957 in Portland:

 

[Cloud]

35 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I'll try that if we get a big snow event this winter. Sometimes even that's hard though! In January 2017 I assume we had around 13" but the entire yard was just inundated with snow and drifts everywhere. It was amazing!
February 2014 was also nice, I remember near blizzard conditions on the 6th.

It cant be 100% accurate but it's the best approach when dealing with drift... more less exposed areas you can find the better to have a better average. Get cardboard pieces and place them  in the least exposed areas and marker them (the cardboard allows for a flat surface).. more the better so you can have a better average. Take measurements often and move away from large drifts as much as possible.

[Sonny Summers]

13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oregon Department of Forestry's analogs for the winter
Primary:
   - 1999-2000
   - 2008-2009
   - 2011-2012
Runner up:
   - 1971-1972
   - 1956-1957

There are some classics on that list. A repeat of 2008-09 or 1956-57 would be welcomed by everyone. How about December 2008 mixed with January 1957?

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oregon Department of Forestry's analogs for the winter
Primary:
   - 1999-2000
   - 2008-2009
   - 2011-2012
Runner up:
   - 1971-1972
   - 1956-1957

I have loved the 1971-72 analog for a while now.  The other are all good too, although the 1998-2001 Nina featured very cool summers so I'm kind of leaning against 1999-2000.  I am also surprised how few people are using 1988-89.  From an MEI, ENSO, and QBO standpoint it and 2010 are really good matches.  Both also featured some dramatic warmth in the autumn.

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I have loved the 1971-72 analog for a while now.  The other are all good too, although the 1998-2001 Nina featured very cool summers so I'm kind of leaning against 1999-2000.  I am also surprised how few people are using 1988-89.  From an MEI, ENSO, and QBO standpoint it and 2010 are really good matches.  Both also featured some dramatic warmth in the autumn.

I see a lot of parallels between this year and 1988. 1975-76 seems like a good match. I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned more often.

[awright-31]

13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Oregon Department of Forestry's analogs for the winter
Primary:
   - 1999-2000
   - 2008-2009
   - 2011-2012
Runner up:
   - 1971-1972
   - 1956-1957

December 2008 and January 2012 stand out from this list. Both had major snow events.

https://www.historylink.org/File/10015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2012_Pacific_Northwest_snowstorm

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

January 1957 in Portland:

 

Check out this list of mins at Landsburg which is just a few miles from here.  Portland had colder maxes, but this is impressive.

23. 11

24. 6

25. 7

26. 2

27. 2

28. 8

29. 8

[Cloud]

Sky feels mean and angry. Very dark all of a sudden. 

[RentonHill]

Unfortunately we didn’t get any precip over here. Cold af with a north wind but would have loved some rain. It’s like Dune over here

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

I see a lot of parallels between this year and 1988. 1975-76 seems like a good match. I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned more often.

Yeah....you almost have throw 1975 in there.  Kind of a disappointing winter.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Unfortunately we didn’t get any precip over here. Cold af with a north wind but would have loved some rain. It’s like Dune over here

This thing did come in pretty far south.  That area should see some action with the next few systems.

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....you almost have throw 1975 in there.  Kind of a disappointing winter.

It was a . I don't know what happened. It looked good on paper.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

It was a . I don't know what happened. It looked good on paper.

 

It even had +QBO.  Just one of those things I guess.  It did have significant differences in observed weather from this year though.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Check out this list of mins at Landsburg which is just a few miles from here.  Portland had colder maxes, but this is impressive.

23. 11

24. 6

25. 7

26. 2

27. 2

28. 8

29. 8

Wow those are some impressive lows. Eugene dropped to -4 as well. Portland seems to have been on the cooler end in terms of maxes, Hillsboro was 40 when Portland was below freezing. Hillsboro did have more snow, a good 6" storm going into the cold while Portland had around 3" and it didn't last as long.

I'm going through the Landsburg records, and wow November 1985 is really impressive. 24" of snow and a subfreezing average! They seem to have a lot of data too, that's nice having a station close to you with a lot of data. There was a COOP station in my area, but it only lasted two winters. 1967-68 and 1968-69.

[snow_wizard]

The Central Puget Sound was the big winner today.  These training showers just keep coming although it does appear the end is near.

[Sonny Summers]

1975 and 1956 show up again with other +QBO years

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The Central Puget Sound was the big winner today.  These training showers just keep coming although it does appear the end is near.

It's been mostly sunny here almost all day. I guess being in the heart of the coast range shadow doesn't really help my chances for rain. It's cold though, mid 50s with a decent breeze.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Wow those are some impressive lows. Eugene dropped to -4 as well. Portland seems to have been on the cooler end in terms of maxes, Hillsboro was 40 when Portland was below freezing. Hillsboro did have more snow, a good 6" storm going into the cold while Portland had around 3" and it didn't last as long.

I'm going through the Landsburg records, and wow November 1985 is really impressive. 24" of snow and a subfreezing average! They seem to have a lot of data too, that's nice having a station close to you with a lot of data. There was a COOP station in my area, but it only lasted two winters. 1967-68 and 1968-69.

This area did very well in all of 1985.  The February cold and snow was better than most places and then November was great, and December was one of the colder spots around.  Snow lasted for weeks.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This area did very well in all of 1985.  The February cold and snow was better than most places and then November was great, and December was one of the colder spots around.  Snow lasted for weeks.

Wow, it recorded snow on the ground for all of December! That's amazing

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

1975 and 1956 show up again with other +QBO years

Not surprised to see 1990 popping up from time to time.  I'll have to look deeper into 1975.  I'm betting we at least had a close call that winter.

[Cloud]

This PSCZ is a thing of beauty. Sitting under some very moderate to heavy stuff right now.