October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Omegaraptor]

Holy shitt I just went on a walk and it actually feels like fall.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like finally got to 0.10" neat.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er - I'll bet $3.29 that the ensembles have no ridge. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Cutoff low off the California coast again 

[TacomaWx]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

57F here, which is the coldest we have gotten. Low temp about +6F higher than the normal average for the date. Looks like we will be about a +10F on the day.

Not sure what the big deal is about this pattern change temperature wise. Seems like warmer than normal standard fall weather.

Not all of us live in Eugene… chilly up here by late October standards today. 

[Sonny Summers]

17 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er - I'll bet $3.29 that the ensembles have no ridge. #NoRidgeNovember

The 00z was out with the 18z pounding a bottle of Wild .

[snow_wizard]

Really liking the 0z GFS.  Just a colder look overall.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, MV_snow said:

Pretty crazy when a day in the upper 40s feels like an arctic blast. I was shivering on my walk today. 5 days ago, it d*mn near hit 90 here.

I've always thought the first few days of the season with afternoon temps in the 40s feel noticeably cold.

[Sonny Summers]

I was hoping for a wetter solution, but oh well.

[Sonny Summers]

21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Cutoff low off the California coast again 

He's back...

[MWG]

Finally rain! 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I was hoping for a wetter solution, but oh well.

This run has some breaks that are favorable for colder mins.  A nice balance.

[Sonny Summers]

27 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Stupid cutoff

[Sonny Summers]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This run has some breaks that are favorable for colder mins.  A nice balance.

Colder minimums are nice. I'm just venting.

[snow_wizard]

We actually get a brief period with cold offshore flow on this run.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Stupid cutoff

That cutoff actually isn't in a spot where it's going to hurt us.

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That cutoff actually isn't in a spot where it's going to hurt us.

No, I'm always concerned about a cutoff low solution, because it can lead to a bad outcome. I hope it stops here. Let's see what the EURO does.

[ShawniganLake]

25 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I was hoping for a wetter solution, but oh well.

After it having not rained for 3 months

[Meatyorologist]

27 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Stupid cutoff

Wow! The worst post on this site! Incredible agony. 

[kokaneekidz]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Some of those are pretty shocking actually.  Skykomish is only about 1000 feet I think.  Maybe 1500.

Skykomish seems to be blessed with the ability to pull in dry cold air with slight easterly components that allow for much lower local snow level than other areas with similar elevation. But once you get past money creek tunnel it abates quickly. Weird micro climate...... I believe it is just over 1k btw

[snow_wizard]

The weekend is really looking crisp.  Cool, NW wind, puffy cloud day tomorrow and then lows in the 30s for many places tomorrow night.

I ended up with almost a half inch of rain here today.  This was a nice opening shot for the big change.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7+ GEFS continues to be far troughier than the Op

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7+ GEFS continues to be far troughier than the Op

Yeah....but even on the GFS the ridge is brief.  Looks like a pretty nice run of chilly troughs coming up.  A series of 4 or 5 over the next 10 days.

[Meatyorologist]

GFS is like totes in the zone, yo

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Dave]

My house is losing the battle. Down to 66 degrees. I might have to turn on the heat for the first time since June. Sprinklers are off. Fall is finally here.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

I'm in the borderline snow zone in this map. Don't think it's going to happen but still fun to think about.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Meatyorologist]

Some nice brightbanding below 4k feet. Means melting of snowflakes

[TacomaWx]

Thought the rain was over a couple hours ago but radar keeps backfilling from the NW. up to 0.33”. 

[Cold Snap]

Hello everyone! I’m new on here I’ve been lurking since last December but finally decided to make an account and join in on the action! I’m excited for this winter and excited for this pattern change in general!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Hello everyone! I’m new on here I’ve been lurking since last December but finally decided to make an account and join in on the action! I’m excited for this winter and excited for this pattern change in general!

Welcome! Yep the Great White Arctic Winter 2022-2023! Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[LowerGarfield]

8 minutes ago, Dave said:

My house is losing the battle. Down to 66 degrees. I might have to turn on the heat for the first time since June. Sprinklers are off. Fall is finally here.

We turned on the heater for the first time today as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5