August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I am very impressed with the short wave that is going to crash the temps Sunday and Monday.  I always like seeing features drop down from the north.  850s are progged to drop below normal now.

[Front Ranger]

Tomorrow really could be a crazy day at the coast. It's a delicate balance, but Astoria, Seaside, etc. could make a serious run at 100.

 

Seaside's August record is 104. Kinda crazy when you consider Astoria's is only 96.

[Deweydog]

Seaside's August record is 104. Kinda crazy when you consider Astoria's is only 96.

Seaside's topography offers perfect downslope conditions if ingredients are right.

[snow_wizard]

GFS MOS keeps the dewpoint in the 50s at SEA through Sunday.  

 

We'll have to see how effectively the easterly winds surface.  I'm ready for a lower dew points to kick in.

[TT-SEA]

We'll have to see how effectively the easterly winds surface.  I'm ready for a lower dew points to kick in.

 

 

OK... as long as you are ready and all preparations completed then it can happen.  

[Front Ranger]

Seaside's topography offers perfect downslope conditions if ingredients are right.

 

No doubt. All of those north coast locations west of the coast range have hotter August extremes than Astoria.

 

Tillamook: 102

Cloverdale: 106

[Kayla]

areas west of portland are 102-103 with downsloping off the west hills.

 

*Only* made it to 95º here today on the leeward side of the West Hills. Cooler than the early June event when I made it to 100º.

[Timmy Supercell]

Hottest day so far is 98 on 07/29. That's to be expected, I have been under 100 last few summers and they are pretty rare compared to Portland.

 

Last 100+ day was 07/02/2013.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS is noticeably weaker and farther north and east with the trough on Sunday night into Monday.   

 

Even in the imagination land of 'WHAT IF IT WERE WINTER" that trough would fail to impress.   Probably only 6-8 inches of snow and temps only down to the teens.  

 

Monday morning:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

[ShawniganLake]

The 00Z GFS is noticeably weaker and farther north and east with the trough on Sunday night into Monday.   

I noticed that as well.

 

92F for a high here today.  Only 20% humidity with a breeze, so it was pretty bearable.  I worked a 9hr day outside and honestly didn't feel overly hot.  I stopped at the lake for a nice swim on my way home tonight. 

[GHweatherChris]

The 00Z GFS is noticeably weaker and farther north and east with the trough on Sunday night into Monday.

 

Even in the imagination land of 'WHAT IF IT WERE WINTER" that trough would fail to impress. Probably only 6-8 inches of snow and temps only down to the teens.

 

Monday morning:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

You just can't help yourself, can you?

 

How good does acting like this make you feel?

[Deweydog]

The 00Z GFS is noticeably weaker and farther north and east with the trough on Sunday night into Monday.

 

Even in the imagination land of 'WHAT IF IT WERE WINTER" that trough would fail to impress. Probably only 6-8 inches of snow and temps only down to the teens.

 

Monday morning:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

Your prayers were answered. Hopefully this made Jim legitimately suicidal. That would be the ultimate victory for you!

[TT-SEA]

You just can't help yourself, can you?

 

How good does acting like this make you feel?

 

 

Really?   If we are comparing troughs to what they would do in the winter then lets play it out.    This one might just be rain?   Low snow levels?   

[TT-SEA]

Your prayers were answered. Hopefully this made Jim legitimately suicidal. That would be the ultimate victory for you!

 

 

 

I think Jim is able to banter about things and not take it personal.   In fact... he seems to do just the opposite as evidenced by his unwavering Trump support which gets more entrenched the more you point out the obvious faults of Trump.  

[Deweydog]

I think Jim is able to banter about things and not take it personal. In fact... he seems to do just the opposite as evidenced by his unwavering Trump support which gets more entrenched the more you point out the obvious faults of Trump.

Excellent points.

 

Maybe some of the best points ever made about anything anywhere at any time in history.

[GHweatherChris]

Really? If we are comparing troughs to what they would do in the winter then lets play it out. This one might just be rain? Low snow levels?

We all know what you are doing, don't play innocent.

[TT-SEA]

We all know what you are doing, don't play innocent.

 

 

Not playing innocent.   Playing devils advocate on a weather forum.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is a warm run.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I noticed that as well.

 

92F for a high here today.  Only 20% humidity with a breeze, so it was pretty bearable.  I worked a 9hr day outside and honestly didn't feel overly hot.  I stopped at the lake for a nice swim on my way home tonight. 

 

Looks like most parts of Victoria ended up around 90F today. The highest hourly report at the airport was 31.6C; the previous daily record was 30.0C set in 1940. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. We'll start the day with a higher morning temperature than we had today but the winds will be less ideal as the outflow weakens.

[James Jones]

00Z GFS is a warm run.  

The Canadian is much more reasonable. 

[TT-SEA]

The Canadian is much more reasonable. 

 

 

Yes... it appears so.   Matt would call that a classic rudderless pattern.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's interesting contrasting the temperatures at YVR to other parts of the region. Today wasn't much different from an average summer day there, with a 23C/16C (73F/61F) day and without substantially higher humidity or overnight temperatures than other nearby cities (which is normally the case when they receive lower hi temps). A blip of relative normality surrounded by a record breaking event.

[GHweatherChris]

Tomorrow is gonna be hot!

[Timmy Supercell]

There is a good chance I beat tomorrow's record of 95 in 1967 (same record as 08/18 before beating it today). 

 

This weekend a slight mention of storms but I assume it's as good a chance as this week (poor), or slightly better.

[MossMan]

Tomorrow is gonna be hot!

My plan for tomorrow...playing at the lake!

[Abbotsford_wx]

YXX is still 84 at 11 pm. They hit 94 today.

 

Oddly, Environment Canada is predicting tomorrow to be 5 degrees cooler than today, and Saturday about 8 degrees cooler.

[FroYoBro]

I just got home. It's been a long hot day. I love extreme weather but I'm ready for Autumn now. I haven't had a chance to look at any models today. I've just been following observations around the PNW. Going to take a shower first and wash all this sweat off.

Wow. I didn't know this was one of those filthy adult websites. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

Even with temps in the mid 90's and no A/C in the car I never felt particularly sweaty today. Hot, but not unbearably so.

[TT-SEA]

YXX is still 84 at 11 pm. They hit 94 today.

 

Oddly, Environment Canada is predicting tomorrow to be 5 degrees cooler than today, and Saturday about 8 degrees cooler.

Is that chromosomes or a weather station?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Even with temps in the mid 90's and no A/C in the car I never felt particularly sweaty today. Hot, but not unbearably so.

 

Looks pretty warm there tonight, it's going to be a tough night for sleeping without A/C. I'm seeing 28.7C (83.7F) in Abbotsford as of 11pm, but already down to 17.6C (63.7F) at Vancouver airport. Meanwhile, Victoria airport has bounced back up to 25C (77F); tomorrow is going to end up with a warmer average temp even if the maximums are lower than they were today.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is also weaker and warmer with the Monday trough but then is much different and cooler for later next week. Messy pattern... might avoid a repeat warm spell.

[Geos]

Peaked at 87° here today. 96° in the point forecast for tomorrow... 

Seeing some upper 90s in the grids around OLM and south. This would be an impressive heat wave back in NE IL!

[Brennan]

Quite the temperature descrepencies around Bellingham today. It was 87 with a hot wind at one point near the airport on my car thermometer. Drove 7 miles to Lake Padden just south of Bellingham and about 500 feet elevation and it was 78 with a cool breeze across the lake. At the same time it was 85 at Lake Whatcom a few miles east and relatively calm. Enjoyed the heat! Pool party and BBQ tomorrow at my Uncle's place. Certainly wouldn't be gathering family and spending time together if it were raining and 65. Can't say i'm not loving summer being summer... Although i just walked outside and it feels like Vegas... 76* at 2am. Yuck. Does suck to be inside when our house is in the mid 80s and it doesn't cool down at night.

[MossMan]

A chilly 57 degrees at 4:30am here.

[Deweydog]

Just your typical 78 degree morning in Forks.

[TT-SEA]

What is the warmest low ever at SEA?    Thought it was 68.

 

Low so far appears to be 69 and it just ticked up to 71 now at 6 a.m.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we finish out the month fairly warm.    There is a chance that SEA might end up warmer this August than in 2015.     Curse you Nina!    

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[BLI snowman]

What is the warmest low ever at SEA?    Thought it was 68.

 

Low so far appears to be 69 and it just ticked up to 71 now at 6 a.m.

 

69 would be a record for August but their all-time record is 71 on 7/29/2009.

[BLI snowman]

BLI's record warm low appears in pretty serious jeopardy, barring a late-day nuclear fallout.

 

Their low so far is 70 and the all time record is 65 from 8/12/2014.

 

It's insane how many record warm nights they have had since 2014. This at an only modestly urban locale.

[MossMan]

BLI's record warm low appears in pretty serious jeopardy, barring a late-day nuclear fallout.

 

Their low so far is 70 and the all time record is 65 from 8/12/2014.

 

It's insane how many record warm nights they have had since 2014. This at an only modestly urban locale.

Wow was I the only cold spot with a low of 56 degrees?