ENSO Discussion

[Phil]

My comments were more related to the monthly anomaly.

 

Perhaps the fact the cold underperformed here has skewed my interpretation of the month, even with the snowfall during the middle of the month. We didn’t even come remotely close to our cold records for November.

[OKwx2k4]

It was pretty cold in November, at least it the places no one cares about.

 

 

I find it amazing nowadays that, if it didn't happen in the news or on a coast, it didn't happen at all. Just wow.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

For those who follow Klaus Wolter and his MEI updates, he is retiring at the end of the month. The future of his MEI index is unknown, it will be updated on his MEI website. If it is kept up, it sounds like there will be less frequent updates. I hope he enjoys his retirement.

[Black Hole]

For those who follow Klaus Wolter and his MEI updates, he is retiring at the end of the month. The future of his MEI index is unknown, it will be updated on his MEI website. If it is kept up, it sounds like there will be less frequent updates. I hope he enjoys his retirement.

If his exact formula is listed somewhere, I could find some time to program it for our usage. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

If his exact formula is listed somewhere, I could find some time to program it for our usage. 

He said this:  . If it continues in some fashion, it will probably be updated less frequently, and based on reanalysis data rather than ICOADS.

 

If you want to get in touch with him, here is his contact info:

 

Questions about the MEI and its interpretation should be addressed to:

(Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Back to the topic of El Nino: 

 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[TT-SEA]

Does that bottom image mean that it will continue dropping?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Does that bottom image mean that it will continue dropping?

That is a good question.  I know it went up when it was red in late November to early December.  But I am not exactly sure what this is, but when others have tweeted about the hovmollers, they seem to imply that when it is red, that means the winds are anomalously strong from the West, pushing water to the West, which would warm up the ENSO regions, and when it is blue, the winds are lighter, or maybe even reversed.  Maybe Phil can give us more insight.  But I have seen the anomalies go down when it is blue just like I have seen it go up when it has been red.

 

Certainly what has happened the last few days corresponds with that.

[Phil]

Yes, it’s the zonal wind anomaly. To oversimplify things, westerlies (red) between 140E and 170W aid in downwelling OKW generation/propagation, and aid in further downwelling from 170W to 120W. Vice versa for easterlies at those longitudes.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago

More

Headed towards a solid West Pacific - Maritime continent tropical forcing state. This new intraseasonal state of tropical convection will destructively interfere with El Nino

 

[Phil]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

Good call.  In layman's terms, what was Ventrice talking about?

[Phil]

Good call. In layman's terms, what was Ventrice talking about?

Essentially, the MJO convective structure (convection over the E-IO/IPWP right now) is in opposition to the typical El Niño convective structure (subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP).

 

IE, the ENSO circulation is being over-ridden by the MJO circulation. This can affect the state of the SSTAs and even the thermocline/subsurface behavior if it’s strong/persistent enough.

 

This enhanced intraseasonal cycle has been present for awhile now, and it’s why I’m bearish on the El Niño until sometime this coming spring, when a strong PV/stable tropical troposphere regime should establish and allow for a more coherent El Niño to develop in 2019, likely continuing through winter 2019/20 as a moderate or strong event.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Essentially, the MJO convective structure (convection over the E-IO/IPWP right now) is in opposition to the typical El Niño convective structure (subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP).

 

IE, the ENSO circulation is being over-ridden by the MJO circulation. This can affect the state of the SSTAs and even the thermocline/subsurface behavior if it’s strong/persistent enough.

 

This enhanced intraseasonal cycle has been present for awhile now, and it’s why I’m bearish on the El Niño until l sometime this coming spring, when a strong PV/stable tropical troposphere regime should establish and allow for a more coherent El Niño to develop in 2019, likely continuing through winter 2019/20 as a moderate or strong event.

Thanks.  so the MJO causes global weather patterns that are different than what the El Nino is trying to do, and those patterns can even effect SST's.  

[Phil]

Thanks. so the MJO causes global weather patterns that are different than what the El Nino is trying to do, and those patterns can even effect SST's.

Yeah, that’s the gist of it.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Essentially, the MJO convective structure (convection over the E-IO/IPWP right now) is in opposition to the typical El Niño convective structure (subsidence over the E-IO/IPWP).

 

IE, the ENSO circulation is being over-ridden by the MJO circulation. This can affect the state of the SSTAs and even the thermocline/subsurface behavior if it’s strong/persistent enough.

 

This enhanced intraseasonal cycle has been present for awhile now, and it’s why I’m bearish on the El Niño until sometime this coming spring, when a strong PV/stable tropical troposphere regime should establish and allow for a more coherent El Niño to develop in 2019, likely continuing through winter 2019/20 as a moderate or strong event.

 

Is this by any chance what happened back in 2015-16 with the strong Nino, because Socal didn't experience the copious rains that usually accompany an El Nino of this magnitude, or was it because that event was more central based as opposed to east based?

[Bryant]

Thanks. so the MJO causes global weather patterns that are different than what the El Nino is trying to do, and those patterns can even effect SST's.

Hey Brian, if you'd like I can give you a couple quick visuals which would really help explain the situation?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Hey Brian, if you'd like I can give you a couple quick visuals which would really help explain the situation?

Sure, thanks!

[Bryant]

Sure, thanks!

I really like the attached image, but unfortunately I couldn't find the El Nino equivalent. Anyways, in the image, the "increased convection" represents the MJO. Simply put, convection over the Australia region results in easterly surface winds which pushes/forces warm waters from the Pacific eastward towards Australia, allowing colder waters to surface near South America and eventually work westward towards the 3.4 ENSO region. Once you have a warm pool developed over the Australia region, the warm waters promote lift, which creates upper level divergence, which continues to create easterly surface winds.

 

With that in mind, we switch to an El Nino, and move the convection into the Pacific. Now the upper level divergence (lifting of air) is centered over the Pacific, and the surface winds allow the warm pool from Australia to slosh back over into the Pacific, essentially covering up the colder waters.

 

This explanation could probably be picked apart by Phil or WebberWeather, but hopefully it at least gave you a good visual understanding of what is happening. The reason you see me mentioning tropical forcing so often is that when it's strong enough, it often overwhelms the current ENSO state if the forcing is located in an opposing region.

 

Any questions, just ask

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I really like the attached image, but unfortunately I couldn't find the El Nino equivalent. Anyways, in the image, the "increased convection" represents the MJO. Simply put, convection over the Australia region results in easterly surface winds which pushes/forces warm waters from the Pacific eastward towards Australia, allowing colder waters to surface near South America and eventually work westward towards the 3.4 ENSO region. Once you have a warm pool developed over the Australia region, the warm waters promote lift, which creates upper level divergence, which continues to create easterly surface winds.

 

With that in mind, we switch to an El Nino, and move the convection into the Pacific. Now the upper level divergence (lifting of air) is centered over the Pacific, and the surface winds allow the warm pool from Australia to slosh back over into the Pacific, essentially covering up the colder waters.

 

This explanation could probably be picked apart by Phil or WebberWeather, but hopefully it at least gave you a good visual understanding of what is happening. The reason you see me mentioning tropical forcing so often is that when it's strong enough, it often overwhelms the current ENSO state if the forcing is located in an opposing region.

 

Any questions, just ask

So as the air lifts, nature has to fill the void, and in the case above, winds from the East fill it.  So what Ventrice is talking about is the MJO is in a place to cause the opposite circulation of what you would expect for a Nino, not only affecting the weather in general, but causing winds that can prevent more warming.

 

Is that what is depicted in the hovmoller?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[BLI snowman]

5th consecutive week that 3.4 has been at a +1.0 or higher anomaly

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

Nino seems fairly locked in even with the SOI not on board. Coming westerly wind ramp up shouldn't hurt.

[Phil]

For whatever reason, OISSTv2 has been running warmer than CDAS, HASISST, and NESDIS since April. I know NOAA uses a running climatology to distinguish ENSO from climate change, but the effect of that should skew it cooler, not warmer.

 

CDAS (which has run warm in the past) is notably cooler.

 

[BLI snowman]

I've noticed that as well. Perhaps NOAA is using the 1971-00 or even 1901-00 means still? CDAS pretty clearly states that it's 1981-10 there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've noticed that as well. Perhaps NOAA is using the 1971-00 or even 1901-00 means still? CDAS pretty clearly states that it's 1981-10 there.

 

Should qualify as a NINO regardless.

[snow_wizard]

Nino 3.4 is about to take a huge dump.  Nino regions 1 and 2 have plimmeted in the last dew days.  This will not end up qualifying as an offical Nino IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nino 3.4 is about to take a huge dump.  Nino regions 1 and 2 have plimmeted in the last dew days.  This will not end up qualifying as an offical Nino IMO.

 

This winter is going to go down as a massive dud. I would be rooting for the juiciest Nino possible so we don't have a 2nd year +ENSO event next winter. Which is looking very possible. 

[Front Ranger]

This winter is going to go down as a massive dud. I would be rooting for the juiciest Nino possible so we don't have a 2nd year +ENSO event next winter. Which is looking very possible. 

 

You just said yesterday you haven't given up on this winter yet. 

[Jesse]

You just said yesterday you haven't given up on this winter yet.

That was a Wednesday. Optimistic Andrew was on shift.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This winter is probably going to go down as a massive dud. I would be rooting for the juiciest Nino possible so we don't have a 2nd year +ENSO event next winter. Which is looking very possible. 

 

Fixed it. Jim's denial of facts is concerning.

[Gradient Keeper]

We're technically in a weak Nino now with ONI at +0.7c.

[Phil]

[seattleweatherguy]

This not good for us

[MossMan]

[ShawniganLake]

Nice little spike in 3.4 the past couple days.

[Deweydog]

Fixed it. Jim's denial of facts is concerning.

Breaking news!

[Gradient Keeper]

..ENSO Update...
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
December 31 2018

 

____ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*

 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean.

The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).*

 

*Last weeks SST Departures:
Niño 4: +1.0ºC
Niño 3.4: +1.0ºC
Niño 3: +1.0ºC
Niño 1+2: +0.7ºC

 

**Latest weekly SST Departures:
Niño 4: +0.8ºC
Niño 3.4: +0.7ºC
Niño 3: +0.7ºC
Niño 1+2: +0.8ºC

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): SON (September-October-November) +0.7ºC.

 

Nice cooling throughout the Equatorial Pacific. El Nino prospects fading?

[luminen]

Forks for everyone!!!

 

Yeah pretty much. What a ridiculously bad wet winter it's been so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like I was onto something.

 

 

"#ElNino is expected to form and continue through boreal Spring 2019 (~65% chance). However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form."

*More: "The traditional Southern Oscillation index was positive, while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was slightly negative. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral."

[Phil]

I really think they’re underestimating the niño potential during the second half of the year. I get there’s the so called “spring predictability barrier” w/ the ENSO models, but there are a number of reasons (IMO) to predict a healthy niño for 2019/20.

 

This in stark contrast to 2018/19, where I thought they were clearly over-estimating the niño likelihood. I was also attacked pretty ruthlessly here for my bearishness on the niño this winter, lol.

[Front Ranger]

I really think they’re underestimating the niño potential during the second half of the year. I get there’s the so called “spring predictability barrier” w/ the ENSO models, but there are a number of reasons (IMO) to predict a healthy niño for 2019/20.

 

This in stark contrast to 2018/19, where I thought they were clearly over-estimating the niño likelihood. I was also attacked pretty ruthlessly here for my bearishness on the niño this winter, lol.

 

Mainly just by one poster, though (who has mysteriously disappeared).

 

To be fair, it still looks like 2018-19 will qualify as a Nino.