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11/3 - 11/6 | Horrible Tornado Outbreak in the Southern Plains from a D1 Moderate


Iceresistance

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Hope this is right

 

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Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 41. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Rain showers likely before 1am, then rain and snow showers likely between 1am and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

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..and suddenly

Static map

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Dec of 2012 bliz comes to mind. Has there been another since that I'm not recalling?

I seem to recall a pretty large storm around here in 2015, I'd have to double check, but I think I have an 11" recording in my records for a storm around that time frame.  And certain parts of the state have been hit hard from time to time, but not so much in eastern Iowa and MBY.  I believe we went 3 years without a 6" snowfall in the Iowa City area.  We have had a couple 6-8" snows in the last 2-3 years so nice storms, but nothing too out of the ordinary. 

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Another storm for KC peeps to mark down on the Calendar.  Look at how this storm strengthens and becomes negatively tilted as it moves through MO, it should be a fun one to track as we move through the Winter.  6z Euro puts the heaviest rain right through the city.

ecmwf-deterministic-central-instant_ptype-1667541600-1667563200-1667736000-40.gif

1667692800-a42ZwJZ4nm4.png

1667692800-SrFNXOMR3Rk.png

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Out of all the reporting stations out West, Park City, UT takes the cake yet again!  I knew my intuition was saying something back in the summer when I visited the area a few months ago.  Mother Nature was speaking when the Monsoon season was delivering.  What a Winter this area has in store for this season!

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-04 at 5.40.11 AM.png

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We could get anything from 1-4" out of this event.  Models are shifting the max band(s) around each run.  The 00z GFS had 3.7" here, but the 06z 2.2".  The 00z Euro had 4", but the 06z only 2" as the max band is farther nw.  A few short-range models are fluctuating wildly, with one run showing 3" and the next 1".  There could be one max band to my northwest and another to the southeast.  It's nowcast time.  I'm really hoping for 2".  Less than that would be a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

We could get anything from 1-4" out of this event.  Models are shifting the max band(s) around each run.  The 00z GFS had 3.7" here, but the 06z 2.2".  The 00z Euro had 4", but the 06z only 2" as the max band is farther nw.  A few short-range models are fluctuating wildly, with one run showing 3" and the next 1".  There could be one max band to my northwest and another to the southeast.  It's nowcast time.  I'm really hoping for 2".  Less than that would be a disappointment.

Your going to do really good...I wouldn't worry...this type of set up has all the classic signs of a heavy precip event for E IA.

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15 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The Dew Point is in the upper 60s for DFW, it's 64°F for the Dew Point for my area right now. (Just increased again)

And my gut is telling me that something nasty is coming tomorrow . . . 

We’re braced.  The real harm starts at the Ft Worth line but it’s east of me I’m concerned about.  Hail and tornados should be east.  I’m hoping we just see rain. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Got a whopping .01" of precipitation.  Right now it is cloudy and 31 degrees with a wind chill of 21.  Missed again for most of Central Nebraska.

My digital gauge reads .15". It's my biggest rain event since Sept. 10th......when I received 1.63". Just crazy how long it's been since I have experienced anything more than a half an inch. 

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12 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wow, intense hail storm just hammered the SW side of CR.  I've never seen it come down like this.  It accumulated on cars and in the grass, it was so loud.  Very cool.  

Wow, great!  The hail core just barely missed me to the southeast, but I did get heavy rain(0.33").

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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75* and we’re under a severe thunderstorm and tornado watch.  

The SE sky is very dark so lots of action that direction. It appears the front is running into very warm moist air just SE of me from east of Ft Worth on a line to Sherman on the Red River extending into Oklahoma.  

As the afternoon wears on this could get ugly.  It’s very much like a Spring storm.  The big difference are the Fall colors.  
 

 

D2814FBE-71B8-42F2-BD8E-59EBA64FA7A3.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Bands of heavy rain and severe weather continue to slide across North Texas. Nice to see all this rain.

76*  Winds SSW at 18-30 mph

Some dime to quarter size hail in areas and tornado watches as these systems move east.  The tornado watch is in effect until 8pm.  At this hour most of it is just barely east of Ft. Worth. Extremely dark to the SE.   The clouds earlier had large wispy horse tails dropping out of them. Really nice sky watching today.

New residents from out of state, mostly west, freak out in these storms.  Old timers like me put their feet up and find something to read.  I've had tornadoes bounce over my house and land on the field next to me and jump over my parents' house numerous times.  Fascinating to look up into those beasts. You feel like you're in Wizard of Oz. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Plenty of hook signatures as these move eastward.  One near Mexia that they are watching closely. 

Wind is gusty and howling here in the DFW area so plenty of lift.  I have some clearing to the west as this mass/mess moves east.  Weathermen are having a bus-man's holiday today!

Update:  As these move east Mets are announcing more and more circulations, and warnings.  Likely will continue until heating is gone (hopefully avoiding night tornados)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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We have currently 5 Tornado Warnings in effect east of Dallas.  Amazing. 
Still very windy in Ft Worth. 
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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This has been a very dynamic system to watch.  So much circulation.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Another hit around Sulphuric Springs on the Ok/Tx border.   It struck something as you could see debris but no details on it.  
These gained volatility as they moved east.  I feel lucky as I’m SW of Ft Worth.  
The evening clouds were gorgeous as the sun hit the tail end of the clouds.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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We picked up about 2 1/2” rain.  
Not bad.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Horrible damage from tornadoes in Paris, TX, Diangerfield, TX, Idabel, OK, New Boston, TX, and parts of Arkansas. There was two Tornado Emergencies, the first one over Idabel, OK with a CC drop even above 30k feet high! (At least EF-4+) with a mesonet station that recorded 108 mph wind gusts and survived the tornado. And the other over New Boston, TX with an absolutely MASSIVE CC drop from that monster tornado. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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5 hours ago, Andie said:

Plenty of hook signatures as these move eastward.  One near Mexia that they are watching closely. 

Wind is gusty and howling here in the DFW area so plenty of lift.  I have some clearing to the west as this mass/mess moves east.  Weathermen are having a bus-man's holiday today!

Update:  As these move east Mets are announcing more and more circulations, and warnings.  Likely will continue until heating is gone (hopefully avoiding night tornados)

Tornadoes at night are the worst  😫 

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Rain is finished here I received 2.1 inches.  Quite the rain for KC today with some 3 inch amounts on the SE side of the city. Things have turned wet here the last 2 weeks, I've received 4.3 inches since Oct 23rd. 

 

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
21 minutes ago

Today we broke the daily record rainfall for KC with 2.43". The previous record for today was 1.65" set in 1956. This tops the normal rainfall for all of November which is 2.00". Today is also the 5th wettest November day on the 135 year record. Oh and this is the most rain we have seen in one day in the last 157 days... The last time it rained this much was May 31st when 2.96" fell.

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