Yeah... almost certain the GFS is being way too aggressive with ridging next week.
The 12Z GEFS also washes out the early week system more thoroughly and has been trending that way over the last few runs. But after that its anyone's guess. Might be the start of a general pattern change but probably won't flip to warm and sunny like the GFS is showing.
Reg, I see what you are saying, but Ukraine should not have to roll over and let Russia invade just because war is ugly. I am also certain that Ukrainians as a whole would be far angrier with the U.S. if we decided not to help them.
We're just not going to see eye to eye on this.
This looks more like the typical springtime GFS error. Though not nearly as obvious/extreme as other cases.
Flip to a ridgy pattern for the 2nd half of April is likely IMO, however I’m skeptical *this* is how it will look at 500mb.
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