Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: And that is with offshore flow and cold surface temps. Makes up for the "warmer" 850s the entire run. We were looking at 850s -13c to -18c, and now not even remotely close to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Wondering where all the cold air went on the ECMWF/EPS. It is NOWHERE close to as cold as previous runs. The PV not phasing with the arctic trough funneling bitter air south? or just the fact its digging too much off the BC coast. You are really seeing stuff that isn't there. The EPS is cold if you really look at it. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z runs tomorrow will either turns us into ice cubes, or it's similar dumping too much arctic air off the BC Coast and too far north. I'm stoked for the model runs ahead. It is painful how we have to thread the needle perfectly to get the ideal combo of arctic air and minimal short-over-water trajectory for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: My final word for the night is chill out people. It's going to be fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things? I ask that as a serious question. The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week. 3 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Through hour 264 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 FWIW at day 10 on the EPS there is almost no difference in surface temps between the 12z and 0z runs for both SEA and Portland. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things? I ask that as a serious question. The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week. Agreed. It’s always a delicate setup…and the models will catch onto all kinds of scenarios because of it. All we can do is focus on potential and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The EPS is colder than we normally expect but it's way warmer than what it has been showing. If it stops the warming trend we will be okay but it may continue to moderate. It's all Mossman's fault. He said it would happen and that it will get better so let's hope he's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Through hour 264 I thought it was over though. I'm just shocked at the reactions on here tonight. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things? I ask that as a serious question. The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week. Sure it is, but it's also reality IF the models lock in on this solution the ECMWF Op and now EPS shows dumping arctic air off the BC Coast then the probability of this "event" being memorable decreases and it's a bummer. I can't count how many times we've seen that happen. However, 12z EURO/EPS tomorrow could easily handle the arctic trough more favorably. Who knows. This is why we model ride. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Winterdog said: The EPS is colder than we normally expect but it's way warmer than what it has been showing. If it stops the warming trend we will be okay but it may continue to moderate. It's all Mossman's fault. He said it would happen and that it will get better so let's hope he's right. At the surface there is little difference. It's being way overstated. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I think it was just a garbage op run cause even the Control is poop at Day 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Sure it is, but it's also reality IF the models lock in on this solution the ECMWF Op and now EPS shows dumping arctic air off the BC Coast then the probability of this "event" being memorable decreases and it's a bummer. I can't count how many times we've seen that happen. However, 12z EURO/EPS tomorrow could easily handle the arctic trough more favorably. Who knows. This is why we model ride. As I said at the surface there is little difference 12z vs 0z. This is going to be fine. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: FWIW at day 10 on the EPS there is almost no difference in surface temps between the 12z and 0z runs for both SEA and Portland. Impressive low level cold air. I guess that will suffice, but 850s of -18c would be sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 While things are by no means settled (GEM!) the general trend does seem to want to weaken the block which isn't great. Also, there seems to be a theme thus far this season to dig troughs too far offshore. Lots of frigid air just getting dumped right over the ocean which I don't love. 00z EPS control shows a similar solution as the operational. 2 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Winterdog said: The EPS is colder than we normally expect but it's way warmer than what it has been showing. If it stops the warming trend we will be okay but it may continue to moderate. It's all Mossman's fault. He said it would happen and that it will get better so let's hope he's right. Dang that Randy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You are really seeing stuff that isn't there. The EPS is cold if you really look at it. I'm looking and it's really not that cold. Troughs are digging too far offshore and the block isn't holding. 4 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Kayla said: While things are by no means settled (GEM!) the general trend does seem to want to weaken the block which isn't great. Also, there seems to be a theme thus far this season to dig troughs too far offshore. Lots of frigid air just getting dumped right over the ocean which I don't love. 00z EPS control shows a similar solution as the operational. And this is how we've seen what may have been an arctic blast fizzle out quickly. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but we don't want to see this solution on too many more runs either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Then there's this on Day 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things? I ask that as a serious question. The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week. Yeah I feel this too. I feel like this still has a good chance for working out for Washington folks Olympia north at least. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 It is crazy how a matter of just 150 miles of where the arctic trough is positioned as it moves south through BC can make or break an arctic blast. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Then there's this on Day 12 Looks like a bunch of rain on the way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Night Shift: 6z GFS 1 hour 47 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kayla said: While things are by no means settled (GEM!) the general trend does seem to want to weaken the block which isn't great. Also, there seems to be a theme thus far this season to dig troughs too far offshore. Lots of frigid air just getting dumped right over the ocean which I don't love. 00z EPS control shows a similar solution as the operational. EPS has block indefinity. The entire run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Y’all made Jim mad. Nice going. 1 1 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Still rolling at hour 336 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: EPS has block indefinity. The entire run. As I said, it weakens it, not eliminates. 1 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: Still rolling at hour 336 Could lead to prolonged low level cold, maybe until January! I am fine with 25-30 and snow. I don't need 9 degrees(Huge lie), but really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Then there's this on Day 12 No ridge in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kayla said: The good news is that the SE ridge looks to hold for the foreseeable future. Keeps the door cracked o As I said, it weakens it, not eliminates. A little, as can be expected, members vary farther out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Look it's early, it's not even December yet. And we still have a week to go, something will happen next week. Day 1-6 were great on both the Euro and GFS. The Control wants to reload btw 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The good news is that the SE ridge looks to maintain for the foreseeable future. I actually really like the look of the EPS late in the run. Plenty of high latitude blocking. Lots of potential there. 2 1 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Kayla said: I'm looking and it's really not that cold. Troughs are digging too far offshore and the block isn't holding. Things still look good for western WA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 What a joy it must be to live near or east of the Rockies where one has no such concern. A man named Jim never has to fret if the pattern will align perfectly, if there is too much ocean influence, and another man named Rob assuming lives near Three Forks would never have worries of warm air advection and this would not make Jim angry ruining the mood for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I thought it was over though. I'm just shocked at the reactions on here tonight. It is over like 3 times per day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MWG said: It is over like 3 times per day 3 on a good day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 EPO and PNA stay negative 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Jim just needs to chill and not tell people how to feel. Good grief. He acts like a 12 year old and is blindly looking at models sometimes. They did in fact trend warmer. They did in fact get less amplified. They also don’t care what you wish either Jim. They are going to do what they are going to do no matter how much you complain and bark at others, like they have some control over it. Just be realistic and see what others see. You think if everyone sees snow on a model that’s what’s going to happen? Lmao. I love your enthusiasm on this forum but reality is reality. Drag queen story time is over. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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