November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I'm going to go with it's both!

Who could not love Rob, let's be real. The first winter he isn't here will be incomplete.

[Requiem]

The progression in the 150-180 hour range seems (from this far out) to be our best chance of getting cold offshore flow and overrunning moisture.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Requiem said:

The progression in the 150-180 hour range seems (from this far out) to be our best chance of getting cold offshore flow and overrunning moisture.

Hoping that low trends a bit further south since it's a bit close for Portland but great to see some chances appearing for the Willamette Valley/Portland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey insomniacs! Little man woke

me up for the 06z. He said its

time to ride!

Edited November 27, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cloud]

6z Euro continues to trend the low stronger farther offshore. 

At Day 3 and end of run. 

[Cloud]

Low placement for last 4 runs ending 06z. 

[Cloud]

Unless there is a dramatic shift, I'm not seeing anything major (snow-wise) Everett-south for Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

[Doinko]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Next Sunday looks a bit close to Dec 1968 with the way a fat polar lobe creeps close to the area.

That event of course is the granddaddy of all polar lobe sneaks. Low level outflow during that event brought the region its coldest airmass ever recorded by far, even colder than some of the airmasses seen in Jan 1950. Seattle spent two days in the teens and Winthrop recorded an apocalyptic -48F; Washington's coldest temperature ever recorded. Not going to come close to repeating that.

A midnight high of 12 degrees and 8" of snow with blizzard conditions on the 30th is hard to beat

[FroYoBro]

Getting some good southerly breeze as the front approaches this morning! I’m looking forward to this week! Even if I don’t see any snow, it should be a good chilly start to winter. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

6z Euro continues to trend the low stronger farther offshore. 

At Day 3 and end of run. 

Yeah. 6z EPS watered down the second trough completely. Ah well.... Better luck next month.

[RentonHill]

Heavy rain

[LowerGarfield]

Everyone in Spokane is starting to talk about the midweek storm. I'm half tempted to hide in our hotel so I don't miss it. NWS Spokane thinks northern WA &ID has an outside chance of a poor man's Buffalo snow storm (minus lake effect of course).

I'll be near the warmer air so I might get an inch or two but nothing that incredible.

[LowerGarfield]

12 hours ago, SouthHillJimmy said:

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Is that the South Hill in Spokane or Seattle? Welcome.

[MossMan]

Got windy. Power has been out since 1am. Got the familiar hum of the generator in the background once again. This brings my powerless hours for November to 80hrs. Nothing like the last one though power outage wise so I can’t imagine it will take too long this time. 

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Thoughts on next summer?

Az Monsoon’s!!! ️  
C’MON! 

[Blizzard777]

24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Got windy. Power has been out since 1am. Got the familiar hum of the generator in the background once again. This brings my powerless hours for November to 80hrs. Nothing like the last one though power outage wise so I can’t imagine it will take too long this time. 

Winds around the 1am hour were nuts up here….50+ (Sandy Shores Point) 
I may need to move in with my ex up here for winters….lol. The power of weather .  20-25 WSW winds currently with mostly clear skies 

[Snownerd3000]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hey insomniacs! Little man woke

me up for the 06z. He said its

time to ride!

You talking about this little man 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@Cascadia_Wx 

This is what you have been trying to tell people. 
 

https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2022/11/record-number-of-firs-dying-in-oregon-washington-in-what-experts-call-firmageddon.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

You talking about this little man 

This guy! 

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This guy! 

He's ready for winter weather! 

[MossMan]

It’s rather lovely having the fireplace going to warm up the house on a chilly morning with the power being out. Everyone else is still asleep so I’m just relaxing on the couch. First time the fire has been on since the long power outage at the beginning of the month…Propane is not cheap right now. Sure wish we had a wood stove. Oh well. 

[Snownerd3000]

12z NAM has the low considerably lower at 993 FWIW. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

12z NAM has the low considerably lower at 993 FWIW. 

Go NAM! 
Currently 37 degrees. 
.12” so far on the day, 7.99” for the month. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@Cascadia_Wx 

This is what you have been trying to tell people. 
 

https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2022/11/record-number-of-firs-dying-in-oregon-washington-in-what-experts-call-firmageddon.html

I don't think anyone is denying that summers have become significantly hotter and drier... and obviously that will have consequences.    Last summer removed any doubt for me with the hottest summer ever occurring during a third year, strengthening Nina.   

I also think a perpetual feedback loop from the semi-permanent SW drought is largely to blame with an expanding 4CH and that could be tough to break.    The best hope might be a super Nino,    But history tells us this could be a long cycle of SW mega-drought that lasts for decades.      

[T-Town]

Olympics looking snowy this morning. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just realized I lost power over night but had it restored before i woke up. My appliance clicks are all blinking. 

[Gummy]

That 2nd low on the GFS now just spins off down into Cal and misses everyone.

[T-Town]

 

[Doinko]

 

[FroYoBro]

11 minutes ago, Gummy said:

That 2nd low on the GFS now just spins off down into Cal and misses everyone.

Yeah, the 12z GFS is pretty dry after the mid-week system. Then there is this system going south off the Oregon coast with arctic air to our NE early next week.
 

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

 

It’s over. JAYA says so.

[Doinko]

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Yeah, the 12z GFS is pretty dry after the mid-week system. Then there is this system going south off the Oregon coast with arctic air to our NE early next week.
 

 

Then a very cold backdoor airmass afterwards

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. JAYA says so.

Time to put the plow away 

[Snownerd3000]

This is one cold a** run 

[Doinko]

Okay GFS...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS officially off the rails. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All aboard the wishcast express! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

what could go wrong?! 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Time to put the plow away 

Yeah I already put the mower deck back on and mowed since we are not getting any snow at all now. Even my yard is coming alive with color! Happy spring!