IbrChris Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 What did SLE end up at for 850mb temps? Was it -14C or -16CI'd have to dig it up again. Looks like -14.1c on the 12z sounding Dec 7, 2013. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I'd have to dig it up again. Looks like -14.1c on the 12z sounding Dec 7, 2013. Okay, that is what I was thinking. That was on the Saturday morning. I think I had a high of 23 that day under sunny skies. Hit 2 that night and a high of 21 the following day under high clouds. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 18z in 1 hour 10 minutes!!!! 12z runs, yeah, not so good. I was a bit surprised the ensembles weren't worse. Short-mid term worsened, but long range improved. Some chilly/cold members beyond day 10. Both 12z GFS/CMC ENS 500mb anomalies are unchanged from previous days showing the positive anomaly/ridging retrograding towards 160 W after day 10. That's what we'd want to see. I've been impressive with the remarkable run to run consistency for this. On the operational runs there are a few problems with the 500mb pattern/evolution. The main issue I see is energy moving off Asia is way too strong with one deep low after another racing towards the Aleutians/western AK. They serve to smash down the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska as it tries to build as well as shoves it eastward quickly. However, PNA, EPO look very favorable as we head into December for the east Asian jet to relax and blocking to take over the north Pacific. That's the plan anyways! This is a large scale pattern change with many features, so it is a lot for models to resolve and handle. We may not see any good/cold model runs for awhile. Patience.Ensembles were actually pretty interesting. Most of the members have a fairly strong cold front on Dec 5th, rare to see such an abrupt shift that far out. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The CFS has a Christmas gift... http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_131HR.gif 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 January is pretty decent too. But the CFS is definitely below average for December. December 5-8 and 11-13th look cool. Then of course what I posted. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_79HR.gif 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Oh check it out guys!!! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.png 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Thought I should do a dry run of these new chains for the work van, I have a feeling I might be using them this winter! And it's cold today, my hands were freezing doing that, time to dust off and put the gloves back in the van. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 18z ALERT ALERT ALERT 18zzzzz http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Oh check it out guys!!! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.pngNow I see blue over my house! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 18z ALERT ALERT ALERT 18zzzzz http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.pngThe drunk uncle didn't even wait for thanksgiving to show us all his glory! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Maybe some of those 12z Gfs Ensembles were onto something..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 It will be fun to see the meteostar on this one...Good times guys. Nice AR starting to set up at hour 384 too...lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Carrots! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Carrots! Yum Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I see "arctic blast" is reading this topic...Just waiting to chime in! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I see "arctic blast" is reading this topic...Just waiting to chime in! The updated run of the 18z GFS looks great but it's the 18z after all. We need to see what the 00z shows before we can get too excited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Yeah, the drunk Uncle really is on the wagon today! Crazy. Watch the Ensembles take a nose dive just to mess with us! Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January. Works for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Yeah, the drunk Uncle really is on the wagon today! Crazy. Watch the Ensembles take a nose dive just to mess with us! Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January.I really need to learn to space out my "likes" as I have reached my quota for the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I really need to learn to space out my "likes" as I have reached my quota for the day.I reached mine by the morning. We need Admins to change the quota, if they can? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 That's something I don't see every day in the clown range on the 18z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Oh check it out guys!!! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.pngDry slot over my house. It's an outlier! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Yeah, the drunk Uncle really is on the wagon today! Crazy. Watch the Ensembles take a nose dive just to mess with us! Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January. Does that mean just cold or snowy cold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I think we should let drunk uncle run around a bit longer today. I caught him the past couple days and we know how the 00z turned out after that. I want to see where he goes now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Isn't the first week of December sort of oddly unfavorable time for lowland snow for some reason? I thought we talked about that a few years back. An unexplained climate anomaly? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 18z Ensembles not as nice as the 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 18z Ensembles surface temp anomaly at HR 300 surprisingly is in pretty good agreement for a very cold southern BC. The model riding fun has JUST BEGUN. 00z tonight very well could squash any of our hopeful enthusiasm and I think we all realize that. We hope it doesn't, but we also live in reality. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112318/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_52.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Isn't the first week of December sort of oddly unfavorable time for lowland snow for some reason? I thought we talked about that a few years back. An unexplained climate anomaly?The first week of Dec 2013 was particularly nice for the Eugene area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The 18z is a bit of an outlier on the ensembles lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Happy Thanksgiving I wanted to wish everyone a blessed and Happy Thanksgiving. If you are traveling tonight or tomorrow to be with family and relatives do so safely. Watch out for the other idiot drivers. There are many of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*00z GFS in 3 hours 36 minutes00z CMC/GEM in 4 hours 36 minutes00z ECMWF in 5 hours 53 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 The 18z is a bit of an outlier on the ensembles lolThe Drunk Uncle keeping his reputation alive and well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 I will take another Dec. 1972 please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 23, 2016 Report Share Posted November 23, 2016 Looking at the 18z ensembles, I think it's safe to say we have zero idea what will happen beyond Dec 5. Anywhere from +9c to -13c. Usually happens when a big pattern change is ahead. My bet is models will continue to flip/flop for the next five/six days. Kind of Trumplike you might say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 18z Ensembles not as nice as the 12z. It's actually better. 18z control run is an outlier but there are many more cold members than the 12z ensembles. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Gorton's Fisherman is unusually bitter right now... http://i.imgur.com/bGrot5M.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I really need to learn to space out my "likes" as I have reached my quota for the day. People really have to earn my likes. No freebies. If you get one from me, I really did like your post. I don't think I've ever ran out. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 It's actually better. 18z control run is an outlier but there are many more cold members than the 12z ensembles.Hmm, the 12z looked better for Vancouver. I guess it improved some for Seattle, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Drunk Uncle reveals himself. Ohhh, it ALL makes sense now. It has been the Gorton's Fisherman all along! All of his crotchety senile rants and bitterness from past Winters of model riding. It's so clear now. http://i.imgur.com/4OOcBuM.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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