SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Exactly what I want to see. Very much like the 1949, 1956, and 1968 warning shots in early to mid December. I hope this about where we end up. I'll throw in 1992 and 94' too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 SIGNIFICANT ensemble improvement.pics or it didn't happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm getting a strong December 1980 vibe from this. Let's hope the rest of the winter is better than that one. We shall not mention that winter on this forum! This certainly looks better than 1980 for areas south of Bellingham though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'll throw in 1992 and 94' too. Yeah...1994 kind of qualifies although that was a Nino. A really odd Nino though. I'll take a better look at 1992 sometime today with some of my indices. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I'm getting a strong December 1980 vibe from this. Let's hope the rest of the winter is better than that one.Was there a similar pattern the beginning of that month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Just about to post the same. Much, much better. A mean of -8 is pretty nice. Always cold enough for snow... Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Was there a similar pattern the beginning of that month? 1980 had a very similar ENSO / N PAC height anomaly profile July - Oct. The context was wrong though. I've always considered coming off of a super Nino to be a plus for this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Yeah...1994 kind of qualifies although that was a Nino. A really odd Nino though. 94-95 was a weird winter. Cool November, nice cold snap in early December, around New Years, and great late arctic blast in February. And tons of incredible torching for the rest of it... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 We shall not mention that winter on this forum! This certainly looks better than 1980 for areas south of Bellingham though. Seattle had some snow and a subfreezing day in 1980, it was still a solid event north of Olympia. The timing and progression of the pattern are very similar looking, and amplification also looks to be a big problem with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Was there a similar pattern the beginning of that month? You can judge for yourself, I guess. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 1990 had a foot of snow in Vancouver BC around NYE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z GFS ensemble is the best yet. -6 to -7c mean for PDX. GFS shows 1-2" of snowfall for PDX Mon-Tue. It's not all bad news boys! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 NWS just updated their current observation pages They look funky and back to hourly observations it would appear. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The GEM brings some chilly continental air into the area. Surface gradients become northerly. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The GEM brings some chilly continental air into the area. Surface gradients become northerly.It also bring's Sunday's low in way South around Eugene while the GFS has it at Central Vancouver Island. That would be potentially at least somewhat interesting for low snow levels on the North side of it. Still think it comes in North though with the consistency there. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 november 2006 redux??? november 2006 redux??? Oh gosh. I think our PDX members would die. Looks like my location scored about a foot of snow with that. November 2006 would have been fun up here... 6.69" of rain on the 7th. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Exactly what I want to see. Very much like the 1949, 1956, and 1968 warning shots in early to mid December. I hope this about where we end up.Those analogs kind of suck for the summer and fall patterns we saw. We can't base analogs based on cold shots in December. We saw a cold shot last December. Analog? No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Block pinching off quicker than previous Euro runs? I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Oh gosh. I think our PDX members would die. Looks like my location scored about a foot of snow with that. November 2006 would have been fun up here... 6.69" of rain on the 7th. Didn't the south sound also struggle badly with that? I was in Seattle for a couple days during that event. Mostly cloudy with rain. I came home on the Sunday to 27" of snow on the ground with temps in the low 20's. Had a very enjoyable 10hr drive from Seattle to Vancouver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Only 6 days away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Oh gosh. I think our PDX members would die. Looks like my location scored about a foot of snow with that. November 2006 would have been fun up here... 6.69" of rain on the 7th. You live on Mt. Jefferson, that's why you get snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Only 6 days away. Blocking is looking much healthier on this run. Liking the trend on the models this morning. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 You can judge for yourself, I guess. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980.htmlCross your fingers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 NWS just updated their current observation pages They look funky and back to hourly observations it would appear.I don't like it. Change makes me scared. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The models trended cooler and are showing the same general pattern. I like it. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 I don't like it. Change makes me scared.I offer "free" hugs to help you get through it. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z Euro has -20 850's crossing into Eastern WA at hour 198. Definitely colder than any Euro run yet. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks like this euro run would probably give a good amount of lowland snow. I like that the Euro and Canadian are showing the low further south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What is that -8C at PDX? Its so hard for me to tell on the EURO. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks like this euro run would probably give a good amount of lowland snow. I like that the Euro and Canadian are showing the low further south. Surface maps are in fact showing widespread 1-3" snowfall amounts for PDX. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Went to bed @ 11pm last night with heavy rain falling @ 38 degrees. Woke up at 6am this morning to an inch of snow on the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 What is that -8C at PDX? Its so hard for me to tell on the EURO. -7C at 850mb and -3C at 925mb for PDX. SEA -8C at 850mb. Plenty cold enough for snowfall at PDX. No doubt the both of us will have no problem getting some decent accumulations. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 12z is quite a bit better. Sturdier block, more cold air, and at face value looks snowy for pretty much all of Western Washington on Monday and Tuesday at face value.What about face value? 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks like a decent warning shot next week... (mon-wed) Short and sweet. After that not great. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 -7C at 850mb and -3C at 925mb for PDX. SEA -8C at 850mb. Plenty cold enough for snowfall at PDX. No doubt the both of us will have no problem getting some decent accumulations. Sounds good. Thanks! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 The December 1956 "warning shot" is interesting. Almost a foot of snow at my location in what was otherwise a fairly warm month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Looks like a decent warning shot next week... (mon-wed) Short and sweet. After that not great. Exactly what I wanted. 1949, 1956, and 1968 all had something similar. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2016 Report Share Posted November 28, 2016 Decent amount of lowland snow on 12Z ECMWF through day 10... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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