December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

Since the smaller maps arent ipdating, 00z ECMWF snowfall totals through 4AM next Thursday. About 2-3 inches of this falls on Saturday night in the Seattle-Tacoma areas.

 

Easily best Euro run so far for widespread snow.

I don't know why it's showing more snow at the Oregon beaches than the Willamette Valley. It should be the other way around.

[snow drift]

Day 10 is insane. January 1969/2011 redux???

2011 yikes! I suppose it will be a battle of the northern and southern streams. It can go either way.

[Timmy]

I don't know why it's showing more snow at the Oregon beaches than the Willamette Valley. It should be the other way around.

weak lows spinning up moisture that doesn't make it to the valley.

[Bryant]

Raise you a D8-13 12z EPS mean.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2ACF678B-FFE0-4A4E-8966-6D0BB686A31A_zpsoxsb8ger.png

You're not allowed to get cold while we are cold...you must sit under a SE ridge and like it!

[Deweydog]

I don't know why it's showing more snow at the Oregon beaches than the Willamette Valley. It should be the other way around.

Resolution is bad. What may appear to be coastal may be representative of elevated locations just east of the coastal strip.

 

Also, the coast can outperform inland areas in these modified Arctic setups as rain shadowing becomes an issue in NW flow and shallowing moisture.

[Heavy Snow]

weak lows spinning up moisture that doesn't make it to the valley.

Ok thanks.

[HighlandExperience]

00z ECMWF snowfall totals through 4AM next Friday. About 2-3 inches of this falls on Saturday night in the Seattle-Tacoma areas.

 

Easily best Euro run so far for widespread snow.

 

To the naysayers - obviously the majority of this falls out of 'realistic' range but nice to see nonetheless.

I'd be happy if we had a couple inches going into Sunday morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

It doesn't get much better than this! Massive -PNA through Jan 10th!

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/vQEjRJl.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The pass was bad.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

It doesn't get much better than this! Massive -PNA through Jan 10th!

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/vQEjRJl.png

Looks too far east to me.

[snow_wizard]

I'd be happy if we had a couple inches going into Sunday morning.

 

3 would be nice.  That gives a good solid cover.  Snow cover would make the cold even more impressive.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, the rain shadow is my only concern of not getting a solid snowcover. I live at 500 feet in East PDX Metro so I might be ok but I'm concerned the center of the city might not get much.

Snow possibilities for Sunday don't look too promising down here. The Puget Sound, as to be expected in these cases, should do better with the convergence wild card and more frontogenic stuff.

[Phil]

6...yes 6 inches. Can you tell I'm snow starved?

You're starved for something alright.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty crazy to see how extensive the cold is going to be.  With such a low PNA the East would normally torch.  I have no problem with sharing as long as we get ours.  We are seeing a massive displacement of cold air from the high latitudes this winter.

[Deweydog]

Pretty crazy to see how extensive the cold is going to be. With such a low PNA the East would normally torch. I have no problem with sharing as long as we get ours. We are seeing a massive displacement of cold air from the high latitudes this winter.

Indeed. We have some air from Prince George, BC staying in our guest room right now which was displaced by oppressive upper levels.

[Phil]

Pretty crazy to see how extensive the cold is going to be. With such a low PNA the East would normally torch. I have no problem with sharing as long as we get ours. We are seeing a massive displacement of cold air from the high latitudes this winter.

You can have the cold. I just want some snow, and temperatures warm enough to enjoy it in. I'll pass on the frigid/dry crap.

[Kayla]

Haven't seen a 10 day like this in a while.

 

[Phil]

Just used up all my likes. Fook.

[Heavy Snow]

Haven't seen a 10 day like this in a while.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-27 at 11.36.09 PM.png

That would be impressive cold days 9 and 10 with snow falling.

[FroYoBro]

I'm mostly just waiting for the 12z for Wednessday. I heard that will be the most accurate model run. 

 

 

TOMORROW IS THE BIG DAY. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Haven't seen a 10 day like this in a while.

 

Screen Shot 2016-12-27 at 11.36.09 PM.png

Holy pancakes!

[Heavy Snow]

Snow possibilities for Sunday don't look too promising down here. The Puget Sound, as to be expected in these cases, should do better with the convergence wild card and more frontogenic stuff.

I'd like to get at least an inch but it looks like more chances later next week so I could live with just half and inch or so.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEPS Surface Temp anomalies coldest yet by far. Other runs aren't even as close to as cold as this.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016122800/gem-ens_T2ma_wus_31.png

[snow_wizard]

850s don't go above -7c for Seattle from hr 108 through the end of the run. Good portion of those days at -10c or colder. Extremely improved snow totals. Much better blocking position/placement.

 

Overall great run. Rest easy.

 

Pretty amazing alright.  This could be...just could be like one of the great cold Januaries of the old days.  Still a lot to be sorted out before we can look that far ahead though.

[ShawniganLake]

00z GEPS Surface Temp anomalies coldest yet by far. Other runs aren't even as close to as cold as this.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016122800/gem-ens_T2ma_wus_31.png

People vacationing in Mexico are going to be pissed.

[BLI snowman]

I'm officially staying up for the 06z GFS.

 

Sleep is just not important with so much at stake.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm officially staying up for the 06z GFS.

 

Sleep is just not important with so much at stake.

I'll try, will take laptop to bed at least. So tired I cannot type correct have to fix every other word.... lol

[Heavy Snow]

He never left... just a little bit bored for a while.

Yeah. I'm hoping it can lead the way with the potential snowstorms later next week.

[BLI snowman]

I'll try, will take laptop to bed at least. So tired I cannot type correct have to fix every other word.... lol

 

Two more hours to get to the sexy stuff. Or the steadily eastward trending block. Either way.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm officially staying up for the 06z GFS.

 

Sleep is just not important with so much at stake.

By the time it actually starts snowing, it's usually just a relief and I can finally get some sleep.

[BLI snowman]

By the time it actually starts snowing, it's usually just a relief and I can finally get some sleep.

 

It's already been about a month of this stuff for most of us.

[ShawniganLake]

It's already been about a month of this stuff for most of us.

The NAM actually being relevant again has really cut into those napping windows.

[snow_wizard]

I'm officially staying up for the 06z GFS.

 

Sleep is just not important with so much at stake.

 

I'm trying to decide if you're serious or not.

[Front Ranger]

I think this will top anything this century for the NW except maybe December 2008. I think this could last longer though. We could easily beat any January event since at least 1980.

Dec 2008 was an exceptionally long event. Of course I hope you're right, but that's setting the bar pretty high.

 

I would say better chance this event is colder, rather than longer than 2008.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro ensemble is insane. The mean now shows 850s dropping to around -13 for Seattle and by day 9 there is a massive nation wide cold spell with the block still going strong. Truly extraordinary setup.

[snow_wizard]

Dec 2008 was an exceptionally long event. Of course I hope you're right, but that's setting the bar pretty high.

Perhaps...but then again January is the month we can have epic / long cold waves. Obviously the January bar for this century is really low.

[Perturbed Member]

By the time it actually starts snowing, it's usually just a relief and I can finally get some sleep.

 

Oh good, I thought I was the only nutjob to do that. 

 

I don't remember who on here said it, but this place really is just an online insane asylum sometimes, we all probably do need some kind of meds  given that we stay up to look at computer models and that our emotional state is directly linked to the output of the last known suite of model runs. 

[BLI snowman]

I'm trying to decide if you're serious or not.

 

Uber-ly.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro ensemble and control model look like something epic is setting up after day 10. The cold regroups in SW Canada, and the northern half of the NW quarter of the country with low pressure beginning to inject moisture into the picture. The control model shows wickedly cold air over southern BC.