SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just in case anyone is getting carried away I thought it would be prudent to reiterate that a note by note January 1950 repeat is NOT very likely even though I am predicting one.I guess I'd be okay with 1957 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I bet Burns, Baker, or Joseph pull off a -30 next week.Road trip! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I bet Burns, Baker, or Joseph pull off a -30 next week.If the wind stays down, watch out for Seneca. Perfect conditions would get them there. They do tend to be susceptible to mixing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Maybe even RedmondWhat do you think your snow cover situation will be? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland? When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember what year it was. That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I guess I'd be okay with 19571957 is mighty pretty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland? When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember which year it was. That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks.1996 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I guess I'd be okay with 1957I just also feel like I should point out that this is also unlikely if not highly probable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think it was around '78 or there abouts. I remember walking across the Clackamas R. at High Rocks in Oregon City. The Willamette and Columbia had ice chunks. Water levels were low that winter so that helped. Never saw the Clack that iced over in my life. Yea, '96 the Columbia had a little ice but not as much as that year around '78When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland? When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember what year it was. That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Its a done deal, weather.com is predicting a total of 12+ inches of snow for PDX between the 6th and 11th with most of it falling on the 8th. More to come after that.Book it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 What are your record lows looking like? Records for the whole first week of January. 01/01: -10 (2016)01/02: -13 (1993)01/03: -9 (1950)01/04: -5 (1972)01/05: -9 (1950)01/06: -8 (1977)01/07: -5 (1982) Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think it was around '78 or there abouts. I remember walking across the Clackamas R. at High Rocks in Oregon City. The Willamette and Columbia had ice chunks. Water levels were low that winter so that helped. Never saw the Clack that iced over in my life. Yea, '96 the Columbia had a little ice but not as much as that year around '78 my uncle lived on a houseboat in scappoose then I believe it was 78' or thereabouts. He was in high school and walked on or accross the multnomah channel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 1996I felt like there was a time after that, that there was some weak ice floating down the river. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think it was around '78 or there abouts. I remember walking across the Clackamas R. at High Rocks in Oregon City. The Willamette and Columbia had ice chunks. Water levels were low that winter so that helped. Never saw the Clack that iced over in my life. Yea, '96 the Columbia had a little ice but not as much as that year around '78Yep, 78-79 was the winter and was the last significant icing along many of our major rivers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Mark Nelsen not backing down. 28-12 tues and Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland? When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember what year it was. That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks. I remember that too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Mark Nelsen not backing down. 28-12 tues and Wednesday If its that cold there Seattle could be colder wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I just got off work here in Washington County. Thick fog right now and feels very chilly. Looks like highs didn't make it out of the 30s over here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 No offense to all these cold stats but it means squat to me. I don't care if it's -26F if I don't have snow. Give me 35F and 7" please. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Incredible model runs today! The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS both have around 3 inches of snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. The stuff as we get toward the 8 to 12 day period looks potentially historic. I have to say the block being depicted is unlike anything I've seen since I've been looking at models. It eventually gets to where there is a literal river of cold air pouring off the top of the globe right into the NW. Very exciting. I have to say the NWS forecast is a bit timid looking for this weekend. Almost certainly keeps the mention of rain in the forecast too long and is almost certainly too warm for Sunday. Plenty of time to sort that out though. I'm betting anything by very early Sunday morning will be snow in the Seattle area and it might even be sooner than that. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Yep, 78-79 was the winter and was the last significant icing along many of our major rivers.I have lived in the area all my life and have fished the Clackamas R. for many years and never saw it freeze up down low like that year. We walked across it safely for several days not far from The Harley Davidson Store on I-205. It was pretty darn cold that winter but dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Records for the whole first week of January. 01/01: -10 (2016)01/02: -13 (1993)01/03: -9 (1950)01/04: -5 (1972)01/05: -9 (1950)01/06: -8 (1977)01/07: -5 (1982)You ll threaten some of those if you go into this with some snow cover Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Incredible model runs today! The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS both have around 3 inches of snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. The stuff as we get toward the 8 to 12 day period looks potentially historic. I have to say the block being depicted is unlike anything I've seen since I've been looking at models. It eventually gets to where there is a literal river of cold air pouring off the top of the globe right into the NW. Very exciting. I have to say the NWS forecast is a bit timid looking for this weekend. Almost certainly keeps the mention of rain in the forecast too long and is almost certainly too warm for Sunday. Plenty of time to sort that out though. I'm betting anything by very early Sunday morning will be snow in the Seattle area and it might even be sooner than that.I think that the timidity in the forecast will continue until it is 100 percent. Many of the forecasters there have been burned by going with the models, particularly since the models are typically too fast to bring cold air into Western Washington and they are usually too aggressive. More times than not, the timid survive. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 You ll threaten some of those if you go into this with some snow cover Currently almost nothing on the ground. It's gonna be need to snow between now and the arctic air for that to tip the scales. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 If its that cold there Seattle could be colder wow.If Seattle is below 28/12 on Tuesday without deep snowcover, I will smoke a pine cone. Those pdx numbers are gorge influenced. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 What if this ends up colder and snowier than 1950? Consider how it will feel after almost 67 years of supremecy?It would be a cool thing to see. I'm not sure our people here - or our infrastructure - would handle it very well. But, Jan 1950 will be very hard to beat in anyone on this Forum's lifetime. But, maybe we'll get lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 If its that cold there Seattle could be colder wow. Seattle doesn't have the gorge. http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think that the timidity in the forecast will continue until it is 100 percent. Many of the forecasters there have been burned by going with the models, particularly since the models are typically too fast to bring cold air into Western Washington and they are usually too aggressive. More times than not, the timid survive. I totally understand. It's much easier to throw a more aggressive forecast out there on a forum like this. My experience though is the ones that actually work out usually deliver the cold faster than just about anyone expects. The probability of this working out is way above average IMO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Seattle doesn't have the gorge. We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think the upcoming pattern is going to have the best potential that we've seen in many years to rival epic years of the past Oh cool, you joined? No problem. WelcomeJust looking at some statistics concerning temperature and sea-level pressure at Seattle based on the 12Z GFS run. 10 to 30 year return interval! This has very good potential to beat 2008. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Records for the whole first week of January. 01/01: -10 (2016) 01/02: -13 (1993) 01/03: -9 (1950) 01/04: -5 (1972) 01/05: -9 (1950) 01/06: -8 (1977) 01/07: -5 (1982) I'm astonished the record for the 1st is from this year. Really quite unbelievable in fact. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland. Not saying SEA can't get colder than PDX, but the Fraser outflow is much less direct than the Gorge is to PDX. The close proximity of the gorge and the fact that it is a sea level gap is key for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I think that the timidity in the forecast will continue until it is 100 percent. Many of the forecasters there have been burned by going with the models, particularly since the models are typically too fast to bring cold air into Western Washington and they are usually too aggressive. More times than not, the timid survive.Yes, that is the gospel there. I agree 110% if they wait it out it might actually happen. Pre-announce and be made fun of with no snow to show for it. Easy does it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I totally understand. It's much easier to throw a more aggressive forecast out there on a forum like this. My experience though is the ones that actually work out usually deliver the cold faster than just about anyone expects. The probability of this working out is way above average IMO.Personally, I agree with you on this one. I think this will be a very big event for the NW. It is also starting to look like the AG industry in CA is going to suffer big time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'm astonished the record for the 1st is from this year. Really quite unbelievable in fact. Fact is, early December has much much colder records than early January. On 12/31/2015 I had -6 and was only +3 warmer than that record in 1974. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just looking at some statistics concerning temperature and sea-level pressure at Seattle based on the 12Z GFS run. 10 to 30 year return interval! This has very good potential to beat 2008. We're finally going to score in January. Just that is very newsworthy after the past 35 years or so. We used to get an incredible January once or twice a decade. So much more potential than any other month especially in duration of cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Don't think we'll be breaking any records for cold in Missoula, the best shot is the 3rd and 4th which are still a -19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland.I don't think the Fraser valley is going to be ripping next week. Maybe 28/15 type stuff in places like Abbotsford. If the stuff out around day 10 verify, things will be a lot different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Yes, that is the gospel there. I agree 110% if they wait it out it might actually happen. Pre-announce and be made fun of with no snow to show for it. Easy does it Yeah, the kiss of death for any type of interesting event (cold, wind, heat, ...) is to give a briefing or put out a bold forecast well in advance. Sort of like Murphy's Law! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 29, 2016 Report Share Posted December 29, 2016 Not saying SEA can't get colder than PDX, but the Fraser outflow is much less direct than the Gorge is to PDX. The close proximity of the gorge and the fact that it is a sea level gap is key for us. No doubt. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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