December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Heard it's snowing in Olympia despite the south wind

 

For Central Puget Sound we want a north wind plowing into the south wind later tonight.  Good things happen with that as you know.  The fact that areas with south winds are getting snow means we will have little wait for precip to become snow when the convergence begins.

[Jbolin]

Absolutely raging SW wind here for the last hour, temp jumped from 35F to 41F 

[westcoastexpat]

Yeah...Bellingham getting snow with SE winds is pretty newsworthy.  Looks like Vancouver is really doing well so far.

 

We've got 2" down already and it's coming down pretty hard.

 

I don't think we'll get much more since it seems like the precip is on its way across the border, but we've had five 4" events this month, so I'm not complaining.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Found some 1006 mb readings already. Looks to be developing rapidly. 18z shows it at 1005 at 1am.

[GHweatherChris]

NWS proably turned both radars off so that if more snow falls than forecast they can play the, oh man if the radars hadnt gone down we could have made adjustments based on the moisture moving in and save face a bit.

[HighlandExperience]

Did another radar go offline?

[MossMan]

Driveway and road now white as well!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Upper levels must be pretty warm down here. Just took a drive and pure solid rain. Not one slush drop

[The Swamp]

Did another radar go offline?

 

It's probably down for regular maintenance.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the wind shift has reached Vancouver. It also appears the cloud bands north of the low are producing snowfall, so the moisture field is pretty extensive.

[HighlandExperience]

Upper levels must be pretty warm down here. Just took a drive and pure solid rain. Not one slush drop

925 temps around -2 in king county and -1 in pierce

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm wondering if I get a temp jump this evening too...

[snow_wizard]

Upper levels must be pretty warm down here. Just took a drive and pure solid rain. Not one slush drop

Yeah...we are in the warm sector right now. Models say by mid evening the profile will support snow. That is especially true with convergence. I really hope this can be a fun experience for us tonight. Today was painful on the forum.

[FroYoBro]

Getting some really wet flakes now. Hooray!

[snow_wizard]

925 temps around -2 in king county and -1 in pierce

The WRF was showing a brief period of around zero in the SE lee of the Olympics.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The upper levels won't be cold enough to support snow here until about 9-11pm. However, if the mid layer doesn't mix out I should be fine...We'll see. 

[MikeInEverett]

Heavy wet snow here.

[MikeBC]

Looks like the wind shift has reached Vancouver. It also appears the cloud bands north of the low are producing snowfall, so the moisture field is pretty extensive.

The wind shift in Abbotsford in a couple of hours ago. It's snowing nicely. The roads are going to be pretty bad everywhere since people don't want to go out for plowing tonight.

[Bryant]

2-3" at the fire station by yew st

 

http://i.imgur.com/JMp7WY5h.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the obs from WA it would be a good bet most of W. Oregon will warm this evening. Most temps 35-40 across W. WA. 

 

Quite a bit of warming along the coast now too...

[Weather101]

Snowing here

[TT-SEA]

The wind shift in Abbotsford in a couple of hours ago. It's snowing nicely. The roads are going to be pretty bad everywhere since people don't want to go out for plowing tonight.

Dumping snow here now and 31... roads are completely snow covered.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah I'm still 34 and wet snow but should climb into the upper 30s as the front approaches.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lol ..... reading the past 4 pages. Seriously.

The Bible teaches us that he without sin is the only one with the moral authority to cast a stone.

[MossMan]

About a half inch. Just light snow now.

[HighlandExperience]

The Bible teaches us that he without sin is the only one with the moral authority to cast a stone.

 

Repent. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah...we are in the warm sector right now. Models say by mid evening the profile will support snow. That is especially true with convergence. I really hope this can be a fun experience for us tonight. Today was painful on the forum.

My concern is still that most of the moisture will be gone and we will have to rely on the unreliable convergence zone.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like higher elevations east of Vancouver will be the big winners again, like every snowfall this year.  Someone's going to get 6-8" around there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam looks warmer and the low is further north.

[TT-SEA]

44 near Neah Bay with a strong NW wind.   

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ...save us with some thoughtful model analysis and Euro Ensemble snowfall maps....

Well, I can tell you this. Analyzing 12 hour WV/IR Loops shows the shortwave and arctic trough has not slowed down at all. It's also moving southeast. It is supposed to do slow down and stall, then dig west off Oregon and I just don't see it. We'll see I guess....

[GHweatherChris]

Nam looks warmer and the low is further north.

For tonight? Or next week?

[Jesse]

Nam looks warmer and the low is further north.

Might as well just copy paste this for every run the next three days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

44 near Neah Bay with a strong NW wind.   

Lol, I just looked around and that is the warmest temp there is.    

[snow_wizard]

My concern is still that most of the moisture will be gone and we will have to rely on the unreliable convergence zone.

This is a classic atypical C-Zone situation for us. The actual zone where the pressure is higher both to the north and south. When that happens the moisture gets further squeezed between the Olympics and the Cascades. This one of the better scenarios for us. Interestingly the models have been trending toward keeping snowfall going into the morning in this area now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

For tonight? Or next week?

 

Early tomorrow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, I can tell you this. Analyzing 12 hour WV/IR Loops shows the shortwave and arctic trough has not slowed down at all. It's also moving southeast. It is supposed to do slow down and stall, then dig west off Oregon and I just don't see it. We'll see I guess....

You can see it on satellite and even radar that this baby is moving southeast fast.

[snow_wizard]

Might as well just copy paste this for every run the next three days.

I'm not going to comment on posts like this anymore tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, I just looked around and that is the warmest temp there is.  

 

 

Upstream does not look real cold... but that is sort of given at this point.   

[MikeInEverett]

Wow, looked out the window two minutes ago and there was heavy snow falling.. Now have moderate rain falling, never seen such a quick changeover.