12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[GDR]

[St Paul Storm]

From MPX:

Typically, climatology has snowfall ratios around 12-1 to 13-1 across the Upper Midwest for December. However, based on colder temperatures, there could be a longer duration of snowfall ratios near 15-1 or even higher. This would lead to higher snowfall totals by Saturday morning, and hints the current Winter Storm Watch remains valid. Just like our previous winter

storm last weekend, there could be locally 8 to 10 inches in isolated spots, with a broader area of 4 to 8 inches. Last weekends storm had a very small band that remained nearly stationary for several hours and created the higher snowfall

amounts near Redwood Falls and New Prague. Some indications of convective instability is noted Friday evening which could enhance snowfall rates.

[St Paul Storm]

Also:

 

The coldest air in nearly 3 years will move across the Upper

Midwest over the weekend, with the coldest day Sunday. Based on

the latest model guidance, lows Sunday morning could approach

-20F for the inner city core. These type of temperatures have not

been experienced in Minnesota since January 2014. Although it

would be extreme to get anything lower than -20F at the

Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a

few locations outside the inner core to reach -25F Sunday morning.

The last time the airport reach -25F was February 1996.

[hlcater]

Defo zone anyone? GFS starting to pick one up.

 

 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121418/078/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[winterfreak]

Weenie band right through the heart of the city.

[East Dubzz]

Weenie band right through the heart of the city.

Gives you just as much QPF as most of E Iowa.

[Money]

18z gfs crushes eastern wi

 

14-18

[Snowshoe]

WARNING! 10:1 RATIOS

 

GFS takes 998 low from about St. Louis to Detroit ish.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121418/gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png

[indianajohn]

[Snowshoe]

Certainly by Sunday 

By Friday afternoon we should have a better idea

[Tom]

Just got back from ORD picking up my brother and his family who just arrived from PHX.  D**n its cold outside!  Blowing snow in open areas.

 

18z GFS...

 

 

[Money]

Just got back from ORD picking up my brother and his family who just arrived from PHX. D**n its cold outside! Blowing snow in open areas.

 

18z GFS...

Gfs must be showing some lhes that's the reason for higher totals in eastern wi right?

[Tom]

18z GFS...close up...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121418/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[winterfreak]

Too bad the GFS is the only one that shows that trailing energy producing anything of significance.

[St Paul Storm]

Just got back from ORD picking up my brother and his family who just arrived from PHX.  D**n its cold outside!  Blowing snow in open areas.

 

Picking up my parents and bro on Saturday , coming in from PHX and SAN. -21F in the point Saturday night. Welcome to Minnesota peeps! Lol.

[indianajohn]

Skilling calling it on FB..... 4" with some freezing rain for Chicagoland area. Would love to see something drastic happen in the models next 24hrs

[chances14]

18z GFS...close up...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121418/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

that map also includes the next couple days of lake effect snow for Michigan so you would need to subtract these amounts for those in michigan

[WBadgersW]

Lets gooo GFS

[East Dubzz]

Nah, CMC for the win

[Madtown]

All local Mets going 6-9.

[East Dubzz]

[Money]

All local Mets going 6-9.

 

Pretty safe call for right now.

 

6-10 Friday/Friday night with another inch or two on Saturday seems like a good call right now.

 

8-12 total. 

[FV-Mike]

All local Mets going 6-9.

Madison looks golden

[GDR]

Anywhere from 0-0.8765 in Nebraska and central ia. PRIME spot

[CentralNebWeather]

Anywhere from 0-0.8765 in Nebraska and central ia. PRIME spot

Good stuff. I figure laughter is better than anger.

[Tom]

Skilling calling it on FB..... 4" with some freezing rain for Chicagoland area. Would love to see something drastic happen in the models next 24hrs

The RPM model paints 4-8" over Chicago, ORD with around 5" and more towards the border, just yesterday it had ORD with practically nothing.  Guess its starting to see the WAA snows a little better now.

[Trinomial]

What do we think the timing for the heaviest snows will be for the Chicago area? Late afternoon?

[Tom]

What do we think the timing for the heaviest snows will be for the Chicago area? Late afternoon?

If the NAM/RPM are right, sometime after 4-6pm...still to far out to make that determination.

[gosaints]

Srefs hopped north it seems at 21z...

[Tom]

ORD SREF's mean is at 2"...

[St Paul Storm]

21z SREF: 12 of the 21 models now show at least 10" for MSP. The mean is also 10".

[gosaints]

ORD SREF's mean is at 2"...

10 inches msp to eau claire

[Tom]

10 inches msp to eau claire

Northwoods special???

[gosaints]

Northwoods special???

I think msp is in great spot. Srefs are notoriously horrendous in this range.

[Tom]

I think msp is in great spot. Srefs are notoriously horrendous in this range.

TWC is there...of course they are golden!

[Hoosier]

ORD SREF's mean is at 2"...

On 1/3" qpf. I don't think so, unless there's mixing involved.

[Snowshoe]

10 inches msp to eau claire

To Wisconsin Rapids

[Madtown]

Really wagons north?

[gosaints]

Really wagons north?

I.wouldnt put a wagon on the sref basket

[Niko]

18z GFS...close up...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121418/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

I'll take that foot IMBY.