January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

The mid range could easily trend a bit colder if that block ends up a bit further east.

Mid range is tomorrow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's a new trend models/ensembles are likely to latch onto.

I am really liking some of the more recent model runs. I think it is starting to show some very viable scenarios for snow for all. Fingers crossed!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian does send up a light snow band too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dolt would be happy if the GFS verified...

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Arctic air is still taking its sweet time to get here, but the wind certainly hasn't; 43mph NE winds are slamming into Victoria tonight. This area is still sitting at about 34F. For what looks a lot like a direct hit at the upper levels this sure has the feel of a backdoor slider at the surface. Temperatures in the BC interior aren't exactly inspiring. This is not an ideal cold airmass to work with (warmer than originally modeled), however it's nice to see precipitation filling back into the southern Puget Sound, that certainly wasn't modeled.

[umadbro]

Dolt would be happy if the GFS verified...

 

I'd be thrilled if that verified.

[Front Ranger]

Ridge looks quite healthy on the Canadian.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Arctic air is still taking its sweet time to get here, but the wind certainly hasn't; 43mph NE winds are slamming into Victoria tonight. This area is still sitting at about 34F. For what looks a lot like a direct hit at the upper levels this sure has the feel of a backdoor slider at the surface. Temperatures in the BC interior aren't exactly inspiring. This is not an ideal cold airmass to work with (warmer than originally modeled), however it's nice to see precipitation filling back into the southern Puget Sound, that certainly wasn't modeled.

Yeah temps in BC aren't fantastic. The cold air will pull in from the east-northeast out of AB/SK.

[HighlandExperience]

Ridge looks quite healthy on the Canadian.

Sure would be nice if we received wide spread snow

[Weather101]

What 99% of your posts look like.

 

Oh, as well as "yo, it's snowing"

Here we go... It doesn't matter what I post stop having issues with everything I do. I don't need to comment on the models 24/7 since people sometimes get upset what is being shown so I like to stay out. I rather report what I'm seeing or when I see posts that are funny I comment "lol". I'm not making fun of Jim whatsoever but I think we should all just enjoy the weather we have. It's the only weather we have so why get so upset? I understand we all love snow and it's annoying to see these models trend but we shouldn't let it effect us that much. I think Jim is great and his forecasts are amazing so take a chill pill.

 

Also stop playing innocent because a few weeks ago you messaged me:

 

I knew you were a ******, you're canadian after all... just a matter of time until it showed

[Goducks09]

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." - Colonel Sanders

 

“The best way to gain more yards is advance the ball down the field from the line of scrimmage.” - John Madden

[Deweydog]

Dolt would be happy if the GFS verified...

 

Clark County, baby!!

[MossMan]

Is it just me or is there a bit of an odd vibe going on this evening on the forum???

Anyway, currently 30 degrees...hopefully we all see snow next week!

[Jesse]

The mid range could easily trend a bit colder if that block ends up a bit further east.

Everything has been trending east for months now.

 

-Timmy

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is it just me or is there a bit of an odd vibe going on this evening on the forum???

Anyway, currently 30 degrees...hopefully we all see snow next week!

Yah... A bunch of uncertainty a kinda of in a limbo vibe. 

[Dave]

Dolt would be happy if the GFS verified...

 

Those are some pretty colors.  However, I'm sure the map malfunctioned and the resolution is about 50km and is actually showing the crest of the cascades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice snow event Olympia-North at day 10. 

[HighlandExperience]

Yah... A bunch of uncertainty a kinda of in a limbo vibe.

Feels like we are living in de ja vu. We've been waiting for something big, and all we get is a warning shot.

[Bryant]

Here we go... It doesn't matter what I post stop having issues with everything I do. I don't need to comment on the models 24/7 since people sometimes get upset what is being shown so I like to stay out. I rather report what I'm seeing or when I see posts that are funny I comment "lol". I'm not making fun of Jim whatsoever but I think we should all just enjoy the weather we have. It's the only weather we have so why get so upset? I understand we all love snow and it's annoying to see these models trend but we shouldn't let it effect us that much. I think Jim is great and his forecasts are amazing so take a chill pill.

 

Also stop playing innocent because a few weeks ago you messaged me:

 

I knew you were a ******, you're canadian after all... just a matter of time until it showed

It's all that alcohol I tell ya...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nice snow event Olympia-North at day 10. 

Snow to rain you mean... NO THANKS! The ultimate suckfest!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow then turns into a tremendeous ice storm Salem-PDX. Yikes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG. Phil, care to comment on this!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

[Goducks09]

I'm ACTUALLY looking forward to the Euro tonight.  Cautiously optimistic for a good run.

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG. Phil, care to comment on this!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Interesting ...

[MossMan]

Snow to rain you mean... NO THANKS! The ultimate suckfest!

I will take that over a rainy transition to...rain.

[Weather101]

It's all that alcohol I tell ya...

Lol yeah coming from the guy who likes to attack me and send me personal messages making fun of Canadians you do all this attacking sober so okay man. I made a great post and you're once again attacking

[liquidsnow]

I will take that over a rainy transition to...rain.

Periods of showers starting in the morning turning to heavy rain mixed with showers in the afternoon before transitioning to mist mixed with drizzle.

[stuffradio]

OMG. Phil, care to comment on this!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

What, PV in anchored in Alaska?

[ShawniganLake]

OMG. Phil, care to comment on this!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Alaska looks cold. Building for our February blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just talked to my Dad who lives down on the valley floor between Silverton and Mt. Angel. He said he picked up 1 1/2" of snow this evening. Said Silverton had 2-3", he drove to Salem to pick up my brother and take him to work in Silverton (My brother wrecked his card during the last snow storm...), said it was snowing so hard he could hardly see and then halfway to Salem there was no precip and dry pavement. 

[Perturbed Member]

Any way we could split this thing into two topics... One for Washington and one for Oregon... Include lower BC in WA. ???

[Gradient Keeper]

Is it just me or is there a bit of an odd vibe going on this evening on the forum???

Anyway, currently 30 degrees...hopefully we all see snow next week!

Yeah, but why? Tension, bickering, drama on a Weather Forum over the Weather is PATHETIC. Good thing I don't have to worry about that.

 

Relax guys seriously.

[Weather101]

Yeah, but why? Tension, bickering, drama on a Weather Forum over the Weather is PATHETIC. Good thing I don't have to worry about that.

 

Relax guys seriously.

Bingo.

[westcoastexpat]

Here we go... It doesn't matter what I post stop having issues with everything I do. I don't need to comment on the models 24/7 since people sometimes get upset what is being shown so I like to stay out. I rather report what I'm seeing or when I see posts that are funny I comment "lol". I'm not making fun of Jim whatsoever but I think we should all just enjoy the weather we have. It's the only weather we have so why get so upset? I understand we all love snow and it's annoying to see these models trend but we shouldn't let it effect us that much. I think Jim is great and his forecasts are amazing so take a chill pill.

 

Also stop playing innocent because a few weeks ago you messaged me:

 

I knew you were a ******, you're canadian after all... just a matter of time until it showed

 

Wow. He PMs nasty stuff like that to you as well? It seems really bizarre. Who does that. 

[TT-SEA]

Stars are out here!

[westcoastexpat]

Yeah, but why? Tension, bickering, drama on a Weather Forum over the Weather is PATHETIC. Good thing I don't have to worry about that.

 

Relax guys seriously.

 

AGREED.

 

It's absolutely silly. These rude PMs have to stop.

[liquidsnow]

People are bound to get pissy after forecast busts. My guess is that this place would be vastly different if everyone saw 46 inches of snow with a 3 week sub-zero cold snap.

[Weather101]

Wow. He PMs nasty stuff like that to you as well? It seems really bizarre. Who does that. He's not setting a very good example for his daughter.

Yup.. oh well, can't change somebody so if he wants to act like that next time I'll just ingore it. We shouldn't have to open up private messages with him trying to attack either one of us.

[FroYoBro]

I am EXTREMELY excited to see some poor newscasters out at Crown Point this week. 

[The Swamp]

I don't get any of those good PM's.

 

I feel left out.