January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like that band of snow is inching north toward Seattle. With the offshore flow the typical points of precipitation enhancement will be reversed.

[Heavy Snow]

I'm going to go into this Arctic Blast with no snow cover. First chance for some snow will be mid-week but due to my location near the Gorge and the light precip, the cold east winds will probably gobble up all the moisture. Then we look into this weekend and that's the best shot again with the EURO showing a system approaching from the SW. However if that doesn't happen and instead the trough from the NW digs offshore, it will send south winds up the Valley and it will be a brief wintry mix if I'm lucky before the cold rain or it will just be cold rain. There's a decent chance I see no snow.

[Goducks09]

I am EXTREMELY excited to see some poor newscasters out at Crown Point this week. 

 

Is Keely Chalmers still with KGW???  She should get the assignment given her history with that location! 

[Deweydog]

I'm going to go into this Arctic Blast with no snow cover. First chance for some snow will be mid-week but due to my location near the Gorge and the light precip, the cold east winds will probably gobble up all the moisture. Then we look into this weekend and that's the best shot again with the EURO showing a system approaching from the SW. However if that doesn't happen and instead the trough from the NW digs offshore, it will send south winds up the Valley and it will be a brief wintry mix if I'm lucky before the cold rain or it will just be cold rain. There's a decent chance I see no snow.

I'm hungry. I'm gonna go to the kitchen and get something to eat.

[Gradient Keeper]

I am EXTREMELY excited to see some poor newscasters out at Crown Point this week. 

Haha, good luck with that. They better be beefy or solidly tied to the railings!

 

00z WRF 4km shows 70-75kts aloft! Strongest I've ever seen. Note also the east wind layer has thickened above 4000' now. Serious downslope potential.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2017010200/images_d3/kpdx.63.0000.snd.gif

[Deweydog]

This isn't a Crown Point pattern.

[Weather101]

Blah blah blah blah blah!

 

Both of you take your little pissing match elsewhere and shut the F up!

This has nothing to do with you so stay out of it. Everything was calming down then Mr. Tough guy had to get involved lol. Chill dude and let's move on to weather

 

Clear and 30F. All the snow that fell last night is frozen!

[Weather101]

I'm hungry. I'm gonna go to the kitchen and get something to eat.

Don't grab a drink of liqour.

[chopper 918]

This has nothing to do with you so stay out of it. Everything was calming down then Mr. Tough guy had to get involved lol. Chill dude and let's move on to weather

 

Clear and 30F. All the snow that fell last night is frozen!

That's what I was saying...move on to weather.

[Phil]

He was temporarily banned from his ability to send me PMs. But as soon as it was lifted, he randomly sent me this gem:

To be fair, you didn't know the difference between dewpoint and frostpoint when questioned on it.

[Weather101]

That's what I was saying...move on to weather.

Will do.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looking at the uw radar there is a healthy band moving over the cascades. Funny to see it come that direction. There could be some more snow later if it survives.

[Phil]

OMG. Phil, care to comment on this!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

Lolz. I'll take it for my location.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just went to collect a bin that blew away from the house and noticed that it's currently cloudy with very light snow falling. Nothing is showing up on the radar and it is so light that it will just evaporate whenever it comes into contact with anything but it gives some hope for at least a dusting tonight now that the colder upper level air is seeping in.

[Brennan]

Hey Phil do you have an updated perspective on the next week?

 

Curious what you think will evolve with this pattern that the models can't get a handle on.

[Bryant]

Wow. He PMs nasty stuff like that to you as well? It seems really bizarre. Who does that. He's not setting a very good example for his daughter

 

Alright, time to reply. Those PMs were from Jan 2014, but you keep bringing them up. 3 years ago. The PM's originated over an exchange on the forum, but I don't expect anyone to remember that. Are you trying to embarrass me? If that's your goal, I could care less what people on a weather forum think of me (except for a select few). Bringing my daughter into it? What are you trying to achieve here? The love I have for my daughter is unlike anything I could ever explain, so don't go there. I'm a very genuine person outside of this forum, and some spur of the moment angry PM's doesn't change that.

 

Since we are laying it out on the table, yeah I don't think you're a met. Does it matter what I think, not at all! Just my opinion based off what I see day to day.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The forum is on it's period tonight. Jesus.

[Weather101]

The forum is on it's period tonight. Jesus.

Every night lol

[MossMan]

Just went to collect a bin that blew away from the house and noticed that it's currently cloudy with very light snow falling. Nothing is showing up on the radar and it is so light that it will just evaporate whenever it comes into contact with anything but it gives some hope for at least a dusting tonight now that the colder upper level air is seeping in.

That's encouraging! Perhaps we will see a few more down here as well!

[Deweydog]

Didn't everyone who's all riled up tonight get snow?

[Phil]

Hey Phil do you have an updated perspective on the next week?

 

Curious what you think will evolve with this pattern that the models can't get a handle on.

I've been in Miami for the last week, so I haven't been paying close attention to things, but there are signs that the Niña background convective state might be dying, which could impact February and March. I don't see reason to change my January thoughts yet, however.

 

When I get back home to DC tomorrow, I'll have time for a more thorough analysis.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Arctic express 2017! What a rush!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That's encouraging! Perhaps we will see a few more down here as well!

 

There are some light radar returns starting to show up SE of Victoria now stretching across the Strait so it's certainly possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ensembles are meh

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen has a new blog post. 

 

He isn't too pleased about the Wednesday forecast at the moment, going to be pretty close for PDX snow potentially. He really likes the euro but at the moment the GEM, GFS and NAM all want to bring that low further north. 

 

About the coming weekend:

 

"Beyond Wednesday, all models agree on a “transition event” this coming weekend as we get rid of the lingering cold airmass.  Most likely a snow to freezing rain to rain event.  The ECMWF earlier today looked very similar to January 2004 with a low pressure system brushing up against the coastline but never really moving north of our latitude.  That’s a sort of “meteorological drive-by”.  It doesn’t dislodge the cold air, cold east wind continues, but a bunch of moisture arrives over the cold air.  What the ECMWF shows is a typical metro snow/ice storm Saturday & Sunday.    The GFS gradually warms us up Thursday-Saturday and we’d probably see little/no snow next weekend.  The evening GEM is more like the ECMWF showing a snow or ice event next weekend."

[Deweydog]

Euro looks like a moderated version of last night's.

[Kayla]

Looks like the euro still wants to bring the Wednesday low through NorCal.

 

It's a little further north on this run compared to the 12z though. A trend?

[The Swamp]

The weather app on my phone says gradual warm up and rain by Saturday.

[Front Ranger]

Didn't everyone who's all riled up tonight get snow?

 

There goes the theory that snow brings happiness.

[Front Ranger]

Ridge looks better oriented at day 4 than GFS.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There goes the theory that snow brings happiness.

Yeah it is amazing how hit and miss melting snow of around of inch is such a disappointment... really odd!! I just can not understand that! Specially when the pattern looked so much better at times .. we should all be overjoyed with an exciting overperforming event. Amazing and completely beyond our expectaions!! Silly!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 is garbage. Low moves into southern BC. Bad. Outlier

[Front Ranger]

Yeah it is amazing how hit and miss melting snow of around of inch is such a disappointment... really odd!! I just can not understand that! Specially when the pattern looked so much better at times .. we should all be overjoyed with an exciting overperforming event. Amazing and completely beyond our expectaions!! Silly!

 

Are you sure you replied to the right post?

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah it is amazing how hit and miss melting snow of around of inch is such a disappointment... really odd!! I just can not understand that! Specially when the pattern looked so much better at times .. we should all be overjoyed with an exciting overperforming event. Amazing and completely beyond our expectaions!! Silly!

I think plenty of people thought we would be having epic cold an snow this week.

 

I will be sad if we gradually warm up without a significant overrunning event.

[Front Ranger]

There was a time when a highly anomalous, massive blocking ridge like this would cause great excitement on here. That thing is still majestic at day 4.

 

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

There was a time when a highly anomalous, massive blocking ridge like this would cause great excitement on here. That thing is still majestic at day 4.

 

get_orig_img.gif

That is why it is such a bummer. Great blocks that give a steaming, heaping pile of mediocre. Nothing exciting about an endless tease that never delivers. It's like giving someone a milllion bucks then lighting it on fire 5min later.

[BLI snowman]

There was a time when a highly anomalous, massive blocking ridge like this would cause great excitement on here. That thing is still majestic at day 4.

 

get_orig_img.gif

 

Are we supposed to be more enthusiastic?

[MossMan]

There was a time when a highly anomalous, massive blocking ridge like this would cause great excitement on here. That thing is still majestic at day 4.

 

get_orig_img.gif

Apparently not anymore?

[Kayla]

Once again, horrible agreement beyond day 2. This is just getting crazy.

[Front Ranger]

That is why it is such a bummer. Great blocks that gives and steaming heaping pile of mediocre.

 

Some people have done well. I wish it was more widespread. More widespread events may still come.