January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Haven't had much sunshine yet...

 

There will be plenty over the next 96 hours.

[Kayla]

Really?? 

 

We lose one female member to Bozeman and now another to Yellowstone?       

 

Haha, same one! Yellowstone is only about an hour away.

[Front Ranger]

Southern BC/Whatcom County is in business early next week.

 

The cold just doesn't want to stay away for very long this winter.

[Heavy Snow]

Excellent 00z EURO run tonight. Snow/ice this weekend followed by a snowstorm next week, then the possibility of a big time Arctic Blast at around day 9 with true Arctic air just across the border. Onto the 12z runs tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

There will be plenty over the next 96 hours.

 

Next 4 days look almost totally sunny here per the WRF.    Very nice!

 

This week might have failed to be epic... but its still  delivering the best weather of the winter so far.   Better than failing and ending up with days of rain.   

[TT-SEA]

Haha, same one! Yellowstone is only about an hour away.

 

 

Ahhh... did not see that you changed your screen name.   That makes sense now.   I was wondering why you were also getting so much snow in Portland.  

[TT-SEA]

Excellent 00z EURO run tonight. Snow/ice this weekend followed by a snowstorm next week, then the possibility of a big time Arctic Blast at around day 9 with true Arctic air just across the border. Onto the 12z runs tomorrow.

 

 

Total snow for days 6-10 per the 00Z ECMWF:

 

[Deweydog]

The cold just doesn't want to stay away for very long this winter.

It only leaves when it matters.

[Kayla]

Ahhh... did not see that you changed your screen name.   That makes sense now.   I was wondering why you were also getting so much snow in Portland.  

 

Yeah, got tired of being called "bro" 

[Front Ranger]

Next 4 days look almost totally sunny here per the WRF.    Very nice!

 

This week might have failed to be epic... but its still  delivering the best weather of the winter so far.   Better than failing and ending up with days of rain.   

 

Plus, in 4 days we'll be able to point to a very impressive January average. 1950ish.

[Phil]

Please don't, I'm moving there next week!

Are you really? If so, I'm jealous.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, got tired of being called "bro" 

 

Good call... no mistakes now.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Of course we need to get through the snow that the ECMWF forecasted last week for this week... then we can start worrying about next week.

 

Here is the map from last Friday for this week. How much of this is yet to fall?

 

All of it..** cue flatiron to say how meaningful the cold air is... as he flips through his booklets of stats to read to kiddos as bedtime stories. So powerful and meaningful.

[HighlandExperience]

Yes sir... 00Z ECMWF shows a snowstorm for Portland on day 8 and regionwide snow by the start of day 9.

More teasing. Is this the final warning shot?

[luvssnow_spokane]

It only leaves when it matters.

Lol!! So true.. and funny!

[James Jones]

Total snow for days 6-10 per the 00Z ECMWF:

 

 

Does it show the basin staying cold through day 10? Looking at the 500mb pattern and 850s I would have thought it would scour out the low level cold.

[Front Ranger]

All of it..** cue flatiron to say how meaningful the cold air is... as he flips through his booklets of stats to read to kiddos as bedtime stories. So powerful and meaningful.

 

Nothing puts kiddos to sleep like stat booklets. Works like a charm!

[Kayla]

Are you really? If so, I'm jealous.

 

Sure am! We're moving just southwest of downtown Bozeman later next week. -9F there right now 

[luvssnow_spokane]

More teasing. Is this the final warning shot?

Probably the winter killshot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Southern BC/Whatcom County is in business early next week.

So what your saying is a small shift of 100 miles and puget sound could be in business?

[Deweydog]

Nothing puts kiddos to sleep like stat booklets. Works like a charm!

I used to read forecast discussions to my kids back in the day.

 

I'm not kidding.

[crf450ish]

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nothing puts kiddos to sleep like stat booklets. Works like a charm!

Yah, I understand, cold snowless winter events do the same for me. Real yawner.

[TT-SEA]

Does it show the basin staying cold through day 10? Looking at the 500mb pattern and 850s I would have thought it would scour out the low level cold.

 

 

Its gets scoured out pretty good on day 7 and 8 before it turns cold again.  

[umadbro]

So at what point do the models flip to epic good? Tomorrow. Or Friday? Come on. We know they will flip again at least once for at least one good dumping .

 

*high fives the gorge*

[BLI snowman]

Nothing puts kiddos to sleep like stat booklets. Works like a charm!

 

Especially dull stats like the January 2017 ones.

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS Medford is really serious about this. This would be the most 24 hour snowfall in Klamath Falls since sometime before I moved here. I haven't had any 8+ inch days in my observation (moved here on Nov 30th 2010). There is a station that recorded 8.20" on 11/23/2010 just a week before we were unloading our uhaul truck. Unsure when they last had that much in a day.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2hq8j1k.jpg

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen has a new blog post. He is feeling pretty good about nothing making it up here Wednesday. 

 

 

For the weekend a very brief snow to ZR event seems likely:

 

"Models have come into much better agreement on our “transitional event” Saturday & Sunday.  It’s a classic setup for brief snow and then freezing rain across much of at least the northern Willamette Valley and into the Gorge.  It may only last Saturday and then we warmup Sunday, or it may take until Sunday night or early Monday to get rid of the cold air.  A couple of brief thoughts on it now:

1. I’m leaning toward freezing rain more than snow due to system coming in from the southwest with relatively warm temperatures above coming in quickly.   Snow levels jump to around 4-5,000′ with this system and the deep cold air over us is gone by that time.
2. Pretty good agreement that Saturday is the day
3. The low-level atmosphere over us Friday doesn’t go anywhere until at least sometime Sunday.  Easterly flow out of the Gorge continues through that time and there is no sign of warming southerly surface wind until Sunday at the earliest."

[MossMan]

Currently 20F.

[umadbro]

31 in Newberg. The skiff of snow has all but evaporated and it's clear for the first time since about midnight. NNE gusting to 12-15. I bet about 28 for a low, 35 for a high tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Mark Nelsen has a new blog post. He is feeling pretty good about nothing making it up here Wednesday. 

 

 

For the weekend a very brief snow to ZR event seems likely:

 

"Models have come into much better agreement on our “transitional event” Saturday & Sunday.  It’s a classic setup for brief snow and then freezing rain across much of at least the northern Willamette Valley and into the Gorge.  It may only last Saturday and then we warmup Sunday, or it may take until Sunday night or early Monday to get rid of the cold air.  A couple of brief thoughts on it now:

1. I’m leaning toward freezing rain more than snow due to system coming in from the southwest with relatively warm temperatures above coming in quickly.   Snow levels jump to around 4-5,000′ with this system and the deep cold air over us is gone by that time.
2. Pretty good agreement that Saturday is the day
3. The low-level atmosphere over us Friday doesn’t go anywhere until at least sometime Sunday.  Easterly flow out of the Gorge continues through that time and there is no sign of warming southerly surface wind until Sunday at the earliest."

 

I've been saying this for a few days. This has big ice storm written all over it, mainly immediate PDX metro and especially east of I-205.

[MossMan]

19F with a DP of 8F currently.

[Goducks09]

Even if the 12z Euro today and 00z tonight show another round of snow on days 8-10, I'm not biting. The wounds from this current bust are still fresh.

[FroYoBro]

Even if the 12z Euro today and 00z tonight show another round of snow on days 8-10, I'm not biting. The wounds from this current bust are still fresh.

 

I mean nothing has really busted. Just a little warmer temperatures this week. We were never locked in on a snow storm or anything.

[Goducks09]

I mean nothing has really busted. Just a little warmer temperatures this week. We were never locked in on a snow storm or anything.

Wasn't the Euro showing 12-17 inches in PDX for this weekend? I think it did for 2-3 runs late last week.

[FroYoBro]

Wasn't the Euro showing 12-17 inches in PDX for this weekend? I think it did for 2-3 runs late last week.

 

2-3 runs for a storm that is 9 days out doesn't mean much. 

[luminen]

18F here. 

[MossMan]

Down to 17F

[Jesse]

PDX has had a low of only 29 so far. MOS guidance going with a high of 28 today. Seems totally legit.

 

In reality they should hit 34-36 pretty easily.

[FroYoBro]

PDX has had a low of only 29 so far. MOS guidance going with a high of 28 today. Seems totally legit.

 

In reality they should hit 34-36 pretty easily.

 

Pretty pathetic. That is why I was rooting for the snow on Wednesday. Might as well get something fun out of this. Oh well.