January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

33 degree failure.

 

Noooooo!!

[DareDuck]

Did you have snow going into Monday?

Yes about 4-7" so our general depth is 1-2' depending on drifts and sun exposed spots that melted before Monday. I have snow banks over 4' tall lining my sidewalk.

[Jesse]

Sooner the better if you ask me.

Do you think a complete breakdown of the -EPO pattern with a return to zonal flow be necessary, or would some sort of pattern crasher to slap the block around a little and get it to stand up straight be all we need?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Methow is awesome.  We've kicked around the idea of buying land over there near Carlton or something and retiring over there.  

Yes it is. That was my first choice for property in that area but The land is cheaper up near Chesaw. My number one area I love is around Mazama.

[Jesse]

Winds seem to be slacking off. Could get chilly tonight.

 

Mark is going with 22 tomorrow morning and 18 Friday morning for PDX...

[Deweydog]

Do you think a complete breakdown of the -EPO pattern with a return to zonal flow be necessary, or would some sort of pattern crasher to slap the block around a little and get it to stand up straight be all we need?

I'm not sure. I just don't think this block is just gonna suddenly realign itself in a regionally favorable way. It may work out for BC, and that's cool, but even that is pretty tentative. There's just too much tendency with a block displaced too far north and west for energy to bomb over the bathwaters.

 

I'd feel better if we were heading into a +PNA pattern right now, maybe setting ourselves up for some sexy retrogression later in the month.

[Deweydog]

Yes it is. That was my first choice for property in that area but The land is cheaper up near Chesaw. My number one area I love is around Mazama.

Yeah, Winthrop/Mazama is top notch. Unfortunately land that far up is harder to come by and has a top notch price tag.

[Front Ranger]

I'm on the fence as to whether we would be better off sticking with it and hoping we eventually score or blowing up the pattern and starting with a clean slate.

 

I don't understand how a "clean slate" makes things better. Honestly wondering...

[Kayla]

Winds seem to be slacking off. Could get chilly tonight.

 

Mark is going with 22 tomorrow morning and 18 Friday morning for PDX...

 

Down to 29 already. Midnight lows!

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure. I just don't think this block is just gonna suddenly realign itself in a regionally favorable way. It may work out for BC, and that's cool, but even that is pretty tentative. There's just too much tendency with a block displaced too far north and west for energy to bomb over the bathwaters.

 

I'd feel better if we were heading into a +PNA pattern right now, maybe setting ourselves up for some sexy retrogression later in the month.

 

I understand this sentiment, but at the same time the block has given the lowlands reoccurring shots at lowland snow for a month straight now. There have been other winters that basically saw the same re-occurring theme throughout the winter...I'm not sure going into a +PNA and potential (but far from assured) retrogression pattern would be more favorable.

[Kayla]

Anyone else see the 12z GFS Para?? Looked pretty interesting in about 6-7 days...

[Deweydog]

I understand this sentiment, but at the same time the block has given the lowlands reoccurring shots at lowland snow for a month straight now. There have been other winters that basically saw the same re-occurring theme throughout the winter...I'm not sure going into a +PNA and potential (but certainly far from assured) retrogression pattern would be more favorable.

The pattern reset entirely around the 18th or so. That pattern got stale and a new round of blocking emerged. Another round will likely occur after this one. Will it be in January or February is the question. Most would prefer the former.

[Front Ranger]

Anyone else see the 12z GFS Para?? Looked pretty interesting in about 6-7 days...

 

Yup. Also looked better than the regular GFS for lowland snow on Saturday.

[Perturbed Member]

Anyone else see the 12z GFS Para?? Looked pretty interesting in about 6-7 days...

 

I didn't quite look that far out but I did notice the last 2 runs on the parallel GFS are much more generous with snow for the weekend. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017010412/gfsp_asnow_us_17.png

[Front Ranger]

The pattern reset entirely around the 18th or so. That pattern got stale and a new round of blocking emerged. Another round will likely occur after this one. Will it be in January or February is the question. Most would prefer the former.

 

Yeah, the -EPO collapsed around then, but the overall pattern reverted pretty quickly. Not sure I'd call it a complete reset.

 

I'm just not sure heading into a +PNA ridging period over the next couple weeks would be better than blocking generally persisting. What would be the physical reason that the block has to completely collapse in order to become favorable again?

[HighlandExperience]

Still plenty of snow on the ground at sea tac. Found this picture on Instagram from the day of the storm. Pretty crazy how localized the snow was.

[epiceast]

Still plenty of snow on the ground at sea tac. Found this picture on Instagram from the day of the storm. Pretty crazy how localized the snow was.

I'm glad Seatac is scoring for once, a lot of forum postesr were not happy about how it was dragging down some events around here in past 5 years in the history books.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

Yah!! Most accurate forecast of the season! Thank u!

[luminen]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

 

Uh huh.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amatuer hr.

[Dave]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

You need to take Pepe.  Seriously, it fits perfectly.

[BLI snowman]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

I'm never going to look at another model again!

[Timmy]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

Name change coming ?

[FroYoBro]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

 

 

Yah!! Most accurate forecast of the season! Thank u!

 

You two were meant to be together. 

[Prairiedog]

Yeah, Winthrop/Mazama is top notch. Unfortunately land that far up is harder to come by and has a top notch price tag.

And as prices west of the mountains continue to rise plus people getting tired of too many rats in a cage they are moving to the east side.  It happened in Wenatchee.  Land in Winthrop is going to continue to go up.  What looks to be expensive now will look like a huge bargain in a few years.  Absolutely love the Methow Valley weather. 

[Front Ranger]

Name change coming ?

 

Zonal Blast.

[Jesse]

I don't understand how a "clean slate" makes things better. Honestly wondering...

 

The current block is pretty damaged goods at this point.  Would be nice to see it break down and progress east for several days while the westerlies break through (like what happened in the mid-late part of December) and a perhaps new one will take its place.

 

Just because a seasonal pattern may favor a recurring anomaly center doesn't mean it always has to be the same one throughout. These things break down and reform all the time. Much like the late 2014-early 2016 offshore trough!

[Front Ranger]

0z NAM less favorable than 18z for lowland snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was up in Winthrop last month, it is cheaper than here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0z NAM less favorable than 18z for lowland snow.

 

The wishcasters on facebook say it is better. lol

[FroYoBro]

The wishcasters on facebook say it is better. lol

It looks better for freezing rain. Might be ugly. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

0z NAM less favorable than 18z for lowland snow.

It does show about 6hrs of snow over Seattle Sunday morning it looks like.

[Front Ranger]

The current block is pretty damaged goods at this point.  Would be nice to see it break down and progress east for several days while the westerlies break through (like what happened in the mid-late part of December) and a perhaps new one will take its place.

 

Just because a seasonal pattern may favor a recurring anomaly center doesn't mean it always has to be the same one throughout. These things break down and reform all the time. Much like the late 2014-early 2016 offshore trough!

 

Not sure what you mean. Because it's getting undercut? It's still very close to delivering a major PNW event in the next 10 days. Could break the right way, perhaps even for the backyards that have yet to score much snow.

 

Bird in the hand...

[Jesse]

Jeez guys. When quoting a picture deleting it and just quoting the text is an option. I didn't need Boromir telling me that winter is over everywhere but my location six times when I scrolled up.

[FroYoBro]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

 

Lol. Nice picture.

[Blizzard777]

Still plenty of snow on the ground at sea tac. Found this picture on Instagram from the day of the storm. Pretty crazy how localized the snow was.

That day killed me as I was so close to the CZ zone. So frustrating

Thank God someone posted that Hitler tube movie and eased the pain

[Deweydog]

Not sure what you mean. Because it's getting undercut? It's still very close to delivering a major PNW event in the next 10 days. Could break the right way, perhaps even for the backyards that have yet to score much snow.

 

Bird in the hand...

A dying and disfigured bird.

[Jesse]

Not sure what you mean. Because it's getting undercut? It's still very close to delivering a major PNW event in the next 10 days. Could break the right way, perhaps even for the backyards that have yet to score much snow.

 

Bird in the hand...

 

The positioning is bad now, and it is getting pretty severely undercut. It could pull through and jury rig something memorable for us, but a fresh block has a better bet at this point. Just my opinion. Which will NOT affect what happens.

[Jesse]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

 

I.

[Jesse]

Long range models indicate zonal flow and/or a pineapple express pattern will take over the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is typical after a cold period. Stick a fork in winter because it's going to be over soon for lowland snow chances. La Nina is fading and El Nino is taking over again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/5vjTjXx.png

 

Think.