January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

Everything has a light covering of white now. It isn't piling up very fast, so we'll see about that 2-4 inches of snow forecast. 

[Deweydog]

I'm thinking every Puget Sound poster is gonna have a frog pic by tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Absolute cloudburst.  It's snowing harder than anytime on Wednesday and probably harder than during Feb 2014.  I'd estimate a 2 inch per hour rate.  Another huge overperformer!

 

Awesome!   I need to go back to the traffic cams and check it out.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, OR

 

Heavy snow 12 degrees NE wind 17mph 1/4 mile vis

[Deweydog]

Burns, OR

 

Heavy snow 12 degrees NE wind 17mph 1/4 mile vis

That's usually one of the warmer locations in the state! Good sign!

[Kayla]

Cams showing heavy snow falling again in EUG. Looks like snow on I-5 at the Goshen cam south of Eugene for the first time today. 

 

Really impressive. Cold air is over performing big time so far.

[Jesse]

Everything has a light covering of white now. It isn't piling up very fast, so we'll see about that 2-4 inches of snow forecast.

[Kayla]

That's usually one of the warmer locations in the state! Good sign!

 

Ha!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Oregon is the new alaska.

[Kayla]

 

Apparently it's never enough... 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hope it dont snow anyway, i want to cut my grass today and plant flowers.

[FroYoBro]

Apparently it's never enough... 

I didn't mean for that post to come off as being negative. I am pumped it is snowing.

 

Just not sure if there is going to be that much moisture for this first wave up here. 

[Deweydog]

I can watch individual snowflakes accumulate. Kind of cool looking.

[Perturbed Member]

Really impressive. Cold air is over performing big time so far.

 

Yeah I expected a much quicker transition down in Eugene. Hopefully a  good sign for us. 

[MossMan]

The precipitation seems to be coming in faster than originally modeled. The 12z GFS/NAM had Portland dry even at 1pm, that certainly doesn't seem to be the case.

And the cloud field is quickly lowering even up here.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well, seems to be below freezing still. But I took an 11:15am measurement. 5.00" of new snow. I did a few different spots to make sure it was accurate. But somehow the depth is at 21.00" (should be 23+?). I don't recall any melting. I thought it didn't have a chance to melt. I walked in an untouched part of the yard near my winter apple tree for the depth measurement.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2gv3iuh.jpg

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/dosx1w.jpg

[MossMan]

Nice dippage after a very brief positive spike!

[Deweydog]

Well, seems to be below freezing still. But I took an 11:15am measurement. 5.00" of new snow. I did a few different spots to make sure it was accurate. But somehow the depth is at 21.00" (should be 23+?). I don't recall any melting. I thought it didn't have a chance to melt. I walked in an untouched part of the yard near my winter apple tree for the depth measurement.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2gv3iuh.jpg

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/dosx1w.jpg

Gravity.

[luminen]

I hope it dont snow anyway, i want to cut my grass today and plant flowers.

 

Hi Tim.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can watch individual snowflakes accumulate. Kind of cool looking.

It's facanating to watch them land on a cold surface and see all the detail on a snow flake.

[Kayla]

I didn't mean for that post to come off as being negative. I am pumped it is snowing.

 

Just not sure if there is going to be that much moisture for this first wave up here. 

 

Gotcha.

 

Radar to the south is looking pretty healthy through this afternoon and the atmosphere is really moistening up now so snowfall rates and accumulations should only get better as the day wears on.

[Perturbed Member]

NWS

 

It is slightly surprising that
precipitation is still snow in the Eugene area, which seems to
indicate that we can expect more in the way of snow throughout the
Willamette Valley. We increased the snow forecast to 2-4 inches for
the PDX metro, and 1-3 inches in other inland valleys outside of the
Columbia Gorge. Model soundings still insist warm advection aloft
will be sufficient for a changeover to sleet and freezing rain for
all but the Gorge later this afternoon, or more likely this evening.
We still look to be on track for a significant ice storm for inland

[Bryant]

We just can't get to the beginning of an event without someone getting butthurt. Jeez, it's blows my mind.

Do I appear butt hurt to you? I was relaying what the models show. That's kind of what we do around here

[MossMan]

I like to keep a clean truck...this equals just how cold it's been! Hopefully I won't be able to wash until March!

[Timmy Supercell]

Oregon is the new alaska.

 

Klamath Falls is the new Butte Falls, MT.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

And the cloud field is quickly lowering even up here.

 

Here as well, lower clouds have already filtered in; certainly a good sign. The HRR is now showing precipitation right up into the northern Puget Sound this afternoon, but it still favors the model suggestion that the band will split and leave a large dry slot over northern areas tonight. However, not all models are so bullish on tearing apart the moisture up this way so we could still get a surprise this evening.

[ShawniganLake]

The precipitation seems to be coming in faster than originally modeled. The 12z GFS/NAM had Portland dry even at 1pm, that certainly doesn't seem to be the case.

Do you think much moisture makes it into the south island tonight?  Seems like the models really want to fizzle out the precip as it moves north.  Later Sunday looks wetter, but probably too warm for you.  I think the island north of Nanaimo will do really well. 

[The Swamp]

38 in the swamp. Better be some cooling when the precious starts. Bust City?

[Deweydog]

38 in the swamp. Better be some cooling when the precious starts. Bust City?

You're screwed. Wet bulb will get you to 32.9.

[Timmy]

Dumping snow and 22f. Fwiw nam shows 12" here through tomorrow night, gfs shows 3". Who will win?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I like to keep a clean truck...this equals just how cold it's been! Hopefully I won't be able to wash until March!

I think our trucks are the same color.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will end up being a major snow event for portland. Amazed to se Eugene pile up the snow.

[luminen]

Nice and sunny here at 26F. It's been a nice week besides the total bust here yesterday. The early morning snowfall just amounted to barely a dusting and in some places nothing. But I'm kinda glad because I had to do a lot of driving yesterday and my main vehicle sucks on slushy compact snow.

 

So I'm temporarily using the frog king for good luck.

[MossMan]

I think our trucks are the same color.

It is! You have the big boy version of my truck!

[Timmy Supercell]

So I'm temporarily using the frog king for good luck.

 

Come summer t'storm season, I'll be using the high Rainbow Bruh Frog for really good luck

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It is! You have the big boy version of my truck!

Is yours diesel? What year

[Kayla]

Dumping snow and 22f. Fwiw nam shows 12" here through tomorrow night, gfs shows 3". Who will win?

 

NAM's algorithm thinks ZR is snow so that 12" is not accurate at all.

[HighlandExperience]

Here as well, lower clouds have already filtered in; certainly a good sign. The HRR is now showing precipitation right up into the northern Puget Sound this afternoon, but it still favors the model suggestion that the band will split and leave a large dry slot over northern areas tonight. However, not all models are so bullish on tearing apart the moisture up this way so we could still get a surprise this evening.

 

virga has made it to south king county already. I am a bit surprised. Precip moving faster north than expected. 

[MossMan]

Is yours diesel? What year

No it's just a half ton with the 5.3 it's a 2012!

[Kayla]

It's not everyday that you see heavy snow falling with a temp of 21º as we approach the noon hour in Portland at 1,000ft!