January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If there is some good clearing the next couple nights there will be some very cold lows.

[Kayla]

What area in Portland Kayla?

 

1,000ft in the West Hills. Off Skyline near Cornell if you are familiar with the area.

 

Obviously completely snowed in up here but we still have power!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not so much as a cloud here under strong persistent outflow and the small amount of snow that was left has dried up. We ended up losing power last night which was not to fun. It's nice to see areas further south that have formerly been missing out finally score. It's unfortunate we're forecast to come out of this airmass without an overrunning event again. With the way things have been going I've got to say I'm looking forward to not having anything to track for awhile, it's just been bust after bust in this area and the cold air and wind are more damaging than fun.

[Timmy]

Over 20" new here, 27" total ish. Snowing

[Kayla]

Dumping again, gonna be breaking out that yardstick.

 

You have over a foot so far there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah as the low departs it looks like some moderate snow has developed south metro and clark county again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Over 20" new here, 27" total ish. Snowing

 

Wow that's unbelieve! Definitely jealous of folks up north! Only a couple inches here. Pretty limited precip once it turned to snow around midnight, the wrap around band that was supposed to come through fizzled/went north. 

[FroYoBro]

Yeah as the low departs it looks like some moderate snow has developed south metro and clark county again. 

 

Snowing hard right now. Looks like the back edge is finally going to move through soon though. 

[Kayla]

Snowing hard right now. Looks like the back edge is finally going to move through soon though. 

 

Unless of course a deformation band forms... It's beginning to actually look like it, can see the band elongating.

[BLI snowman]

You have over a foot so far there?

Just there now.

[Timmy]

M

[TT-SEA]

Just measured 18" here and it is continuing to DUMP. Plenty of 5-6ft snow drifts and currently 25º. Just an amazing storm that I will never forget. What a way to send me off Portland!

 

Q7nvvjZ - Imgur.jpg

VpOazaL - Imgur.jpg

d9FF4Sm - Imgur.jpg

 

 

Wow.    That is incredible.

[Goducks09]

Unless of course a deformation band forms... It's beginning to actually look like it, can see the band elongating.

 

Don't tease us like that!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6z showed a possible reset in the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There has to be the real worry of small stream an urban flooding early next week as it is looking pretty warm and wet and much of this snow will still be left. Even places further south like me that didn't get a lot with this storm, still have a lot on the ground ready to melt when the warm up comes...

[HighlandExperience]

6z showed a possible reset in the long range.

Sure so Portland can get hit again. We can't win up here. Virga storm for 24 hours

[ShawniganLake]

Long range GFS!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

That might trend north.

[snow maniac]

6z showed a possible reset in the long range.

Let's hope we reset.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I predict Seattle has a regionwide 2-4" snow event before the end of January. BANK ON IT!

[Weather101]

That might trend north.

South

[Jesse]

Dumping here again. Need to go out and measure.

 

I was thinking it was over going to bed last night when the snow was lightening up, but this is the deformation band that keeps on giving.

[ShawniganLake]

I predict Seattle has a regionwide 2-4" snow event before the end of January. BANK ON IT!

That's not going to satisfy people in Seattle when they look at what Portland got.

[Bryant]

Dumping here again. Need to go out and measure.

 

I was thinking it was over going to bed last night when the snow was lightening up, but this is the deformation band that keeps on giving.

What's the total? Asked my buddy to go and measure but he hasn't gotten back to me

[Jesse]

What's the total? Asked my buddy to go and measure but he hasn't gotten back to me

 

I'm gonna head out in a little bit here. We were up until 4am last night either walking around outside or looking out the window. Update on the way soon!

[westcoastexpat]

So happy for Portland folk! So Vancouver canada and Portland have had an 8"+ event. Just gotta get Seattle now.

 

The Olympia to Bellingham stretch has really had bad luck this winter.

[Jesse]

I've gotta say, the persistence of this snowband is unlike anything I have really ever seen around here. No matter how it orients or contorts itself it keeps finding a way to dump on the Portland metro. This has been going on for like 15 hours now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's not going to satisfy people in Seattle when they look at what Portland got.

 

Well I predicted 2-4" for PDX and look what happened! 

 

Seriously though I do think Seattle is next in about 10-14 days. Think about it, Eugene, Medford, Salem, and PDX have all had major snow events with at least 4-5" plus and we are talking 4 separate events! 

 

Salem 12-14

Medford 1-4

Eugene 1-7

PDX 1-10/11

 

I can't imagine Seattle doesn't get nailed. 

 

And if they do, and we reset to cold conditions after a brief warm up next week, this could go down as a top tier January....

[BLI snowman]

January is the new April.

[umadbro]

4" is what I ended up with. That's on the low end compared to the rest of the valley!

 

IMADBRO! This winter sucks!!

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah between the snow in Canada and throughout most of Oregon over the past month, it's remarkable the lack of accumulation between roughly OLM-BLI. Literally every direction of us (not counting the open ocean to the west) has gotten considerable snow at some point this season. Surely feels like Seattle is due and hopefully this pattern reset will provide the mechanics needed to get it done.

I imagine snowwiz must be pretty sad right now.

[Kayla]

Just crested 20" now here. Every time I think it can't snow any heavier, it snows heavier. Just incredible, total disbelief.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am actually really rooting for Seattle because if they do get hit then we could truly start talking about this as a truly great regional winter. 

 

Probably what we need is a Seattle area snowstorm and a true arctic outbreak...At this point a dry arctic outbreak or even late season one would suffice. 

[Bryant]

I'm gonna head out in a little bit here. We were up until 4am last night either walking around outside or looking out the window. Update on the way soon!

I don't know if I could have slept at all. Historic event down there

[wx_statman]

Dumping again, gonna be breaking out that yardstick.

 

I've been using a 25' tape measure. I'm prepared!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At midnight PDX was at 9.9" on the winter so obviously over that now. Only the 2nd or 3rd time since the turn of the century they have gotten to double digits. I believe they didn't quite make it in 2013-14. 

[wx_statman]

9" balanced on a metal fence

 

 

[Skagit Weather]

20 degrees is almost as good as 20" right? Well maybe if everything works out I can get a cold low tonight up here. I still haven't managed to drop below 18F this winter.

[Jesse]

There has been some blowing and drifting here, so took a few measurements. Seems like 8"-10" is the rule.

 

From what I can tell places to the west have gotten more (some minor dryslotting here) but I will take it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9" balanced on a metal fence

 

Nice! 

 

I am thinking the low level cold is really going to build in the next couple of days, that weak system moving by to the north over the weekend probably won't be enough to scour it out. Probably well below normal through Monday.