PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend) Similar trend. Ridge notch stronger, amplified, and energy a notch further west.

 

[Meatyorologist]

GFS will be similar/a bit better than its last run. The downstream implications of changes to initial conditions are pretty easy to predict, I've been right virtually every time for the last two days.

[ShawniganLake]

Sucks how quickly the models try to decapitate the blocking up in Alaska.  That would be a pretty wicked airmass coming south if it held a little longer. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 (4-run trend) Block a few notches further west in BC, pivoting and energy southwest of block/kona shunted a bit more to the west.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sucks how quickly the models try to decapitate the blocking up in Alaska.  That would be a pretty wicked airmass coming south if it held a little longer. 

Maybe if something like what the 00z Euro showed happens

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS will be similar/a bit better than its last run. The downstream implications of changes to initial conditions are pretty easy to predict, I've been right virtually every time for the last two days.

12Z GFS is coming in faster... but also looks like block is lifting north a little faster.    Not sure if that is good or bad.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend) Small cut-off low near base of block fading more, energy west of block riding north a notch, block shifting further west in Yukon/northern BC.

 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Maybe if something like what the 00z Euro showed happens

Could happen.  We need it to hold awhile longer

[Poulsbo Snowman]

It's going to force a tilt.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block amplifying and migrating north sooner too. Don't like that.

[Gradient Keeper]

This isn't going to be in our favor.. Suspect it digs bit more west in BC and stalls.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 (4-run trend)

It’s going to do a three point turn and back down into us 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s going to do a three point turn and back down into us 

No doubt it will find a way to bury Seattle in snow... its a given on every run.     

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge is rocketing up into the arctic. This is going to be garbage run sorry to say. We better hope the Euro/EPS handles the block differently.

 

 

[Terreboner]

Looks fine to me Rob.  I don't see any driver out in the pacific to continue that northward progression of the block.

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Ridge is rocketing up into the arctic. This is going to be garbage run sorry to say.

 

 

GEM and Euro are a lot stronger with the block thankfully. Hopefully the GFS caves

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The ICON was crap

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Arctic air stalling in BC as we lose ridge support due to it racing north into the arctic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems ok so far

[Gradient Keeper]

Washington doesn't even get arctic air this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chill 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Well that was fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 850s That won't get the job done unless you live near Omak or Spokane.

[TT-SEA]

Even with 925mb temps at -1C over Seattle on Monday afternoon on this run... moisture is incoming and it will tap into the cold air to the north and show tons of snow over Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS will be similar/a bit better than its last run. The downstream implications of changes to initial conditions are pretty easy to predict, I've been right virtually every time for the last two days.

I’m feeling a big jinx coming from this one. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Get your lucky rabbits foot for the Euro.

[GobBluth]

lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the pullback, rebound will be tomorrow night.

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (4-run trend) Small cut-off low near base of block fading more, energy west of block riding north a notch, block shifting further west in Yukon/northern BC.

 

Quite the big low pressure area.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 the outlier portion of the model run wants to drop the polar lobe slowly south towards us. Would be nice if it were true.

[RentonHill]

Perfect run imo 

[TT-SEA]

This run is massively snowy for the North Sound and Vancouver Island... tapping into Fraser outflow with tons of moisture coming in on Monday into Tuesday. 

Here is Tuesday morning temps and total snowfall.

 

[Brennan]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 the outlier portion of the model run wants to drop the polar lobe slowly south towards us. Would be nice if it were true.

This is kind of in line with the euro. Send the ridge into the arctic, cut it off and quickly rebuild it before we lose the lobe of cold air to our north. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 the outlier portion of the model run wants to drop the polar lobe slowly south towards us. Would be nice if it were true.

That kind of looks similar to what the 00z Euro does

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This run is massively snowy for the North Sound and Vancouver Island... tapping into Fraser outflow with tons of moisture coming in on Monday into Tuesday. 

Here is Tuesday morning temps and total snowfall.

 

Gem looks very similar but is a bit weaker with the CAA and ends up a bit more north. 

[Timmy]

Tough morning so far

[TT-SEA]

Wow.. and then it turns into an arctic front on Tuesday and temps are crashing in Seattle with snow.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Anything after day 6 on Op runs lately are probably similar to meth psychosis or something.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This run is massively snowy for the North Sound and Vancouver Island... tapping into Fraser outflow with tons of moisture coming in on Monday into Tuesday. 

Here is Tuesday morning temps and total snowfall.

 

Almost looks like a cutoff low comes in from the SW with this map.  Where is all this snow in Cental/Eastern OR coming from?  Couldn't be the same system blasting NW WA.