PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[snow_wizard]

Thank God the forum is back up!!!

Anyway...there was slight improvement on the 18z EPS in that the block looked a bit stronger at hour 144 than the 12z.  It looked more poised to possibly drive everything south like the 12z operational run.  18z EPS control was slightly better as well in that it didn't dig the trough out over the ocean as much.  This could still work out.

[fubario]

4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Come on. It’s a warming climate. It’s NOT going to snow. Runs tonight will prove that. 

Thanks, Al Gore.

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Bad Trends today, God i hate this stupid planet!

What about the next one in distance from the sun?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank God the forum is back up!!!

Anyway...there was slight improvement on the 18z EPS in that the block looked a bit stronger at hour 144 than the 12z.  It looked more poised to possibly drive everything south like the 12z operational run.  18z EPS control was slightly better as well in that it didn't dig the trough out over the ocean as much.  This could still work out.

Wasn't the 12z Control pretty bonkers?

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF says it will clear out and be sunny by tomorrow afternoon.    That will be a nice change.

[Anti Marine Layer]

A guest merged the topics.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wasn't the 12z Control pretty bonkers?

Yeah, 850s over Portland to -19.6C on the Control. Operational got down to -20.9. I like ensemble member 4 though. 850s down to -24.6C and then a warmup around Christmas with a massive reload afterwards around the 28th with 850s back down to -24c

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Ziess said:

I made my first post then site went down, figured it was my fault lol

Welcome Ziess! Are you in Portland or whereabouts? I hope you get snow soon. Winter here on the forum is fun.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

A guest merged the topics.

I wonder if those words have ever been put in that order in a sentence before.  

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I wonder if those words have ever been put in that order in a sentence before.  

Probably not, I will do another one.  HIgh Desert Mat pleased a woman.

See, it's easy.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, 850s over Portland to -19.6C on the Control. Operational got down to -20.9. I like ensemble member 4 though. 850s down to -24.6C and then a warmup around Christmas with a massive reload afterwards around the 28th with 850s back down to -24c

Maybe it was confused and tried to cover everything

[Darrington Troll]

Just going to leave this here for when the Euro rug pull happens later tonight. 

[Snownerd3000]

19 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

I added two more raspberry pi's to the cluster and restarted the wrf pods. So maybe.

I didn't know there'd be pie 

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wonder if those words have ever been put in that order in a sentence before.  

 

[Brennan]

I gotta feeling… it’s coming back tonight.. 0z GFS and 0z EURO will align. . And the North Sound will get hammered by 24” of snow. Lake Whatcom Area ground zero. Christmas Miracle. December 29th 1996 redux on Xmas eve, flooding on christmas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sort of clearing out here. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

 

Silly question but what is that in your profile picture? Is it a tree stump or something else?

[Ziess]

10 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Welcome Ziess! Are you in Portland or whereabouts? I hope you get snow soon. Winter here on the forum is fun.

Thanks! I’ve been a lurker since the old Western days and finally decided to register an account for this event/bust .  I’m located south or Portland in a rural area outside Canby.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

I gotta feeling… it’s coming back tonight.. 0z GFS and 0z EURO will align. . And the North Sound will get hammered by 24” of snow. Lake Whatcom Area ground zero. Christmas Miracle. December 29th 1996 redux on Xmas eve, flooding on christmas.

Can we have something awesome happen up north that doesn't involve 60 degree rain down here?

[Terreboner]

Just now, Ziess said:

Thanks! I’ve been a lurker since the old Western days and finally decided to register an account for this event/bust .  I’m located south or Portland in a rural area outside Canby.  

AKA, the Oregon swamp!!  Good luck.

[MWG]

31F and some mist!

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank God the forum is back up!!!

Anyway...there was slight improvement on the 18z EPS in that the block looked a bit stronger at hour 144 than the 12z.  It looked more poised to possibly drive everything south like the 12z operational run.  18z EPS control was slightly better as well in that it didn't dig the trough out over the ocean as much.  This could still work out.

I thought the 18Z EPS was a little worse.. but I see what you are saying.   

Based on the ECMWF... the initial push is going to be pretty weak and take until Monday.   But ironically the way this could work out is if the arctic air does get pushed westward out over the ocean and then comes back south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF says it will clear out and be sunny by tomorrow afternoon.    That will be a nice change.

Plus clear = cold, frosty nights.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I forgot that 2008 kickoff was delayed. Massive forum meltdowns!! 

After the giant c*ck tease that was 2007-08, it was understandable.

Plus the previous decade really sucked.

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Silly question but what is that in your profile picture? Is it a tree stump or something else?

Lol it’s the fountain in my backyard last December when it froze.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I thought the 18Z EPS was a little worse.. but I see what you are saying.   

Based on the ECMWF... the initial push is going to be pretty weak and take until Monday.   But ironically the way this could work out is if the arctic air does get pushed westward out over the ocean and then comes back south.

Everything is still on the table.  I actually wouldn't mind it getting pushed out 10 days.  Heavy snow on the 23rd and 24th.  Crisp and clear for Christmas day.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can we have something awesome happen up north that doesn't involve 60 degree rain down here?

Absolutely! 50˚F rain coming up for Oregon!

[The Cats Meow]

Tim how are your daffodils?  Mine are just starting to pop up.

If something good hits in January like everyone wants it's really going to crush my crocus.

I thought the site got shut down a while back.

I think they should charge $3 per month for access to this thread.  Everything else on the site would be free but this monthly thread should be behind a pay wall.

It's truly entertaining.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Absolutely! 50˚F rain coming up for Oregon!

Seriously, though, I hope the south Valley gets dumped on. Been a long time.

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Absolutely! 50˚F rain coming up for Oregon!

I looked into it and it should actually be 34 degree sprinkles and fog. ☹

[Prairiedog]

Once again Mark Nelsen was on the right track, even yesterday.  He was reluctant to go much beyond a couple days and he never took a bite of the snowball when all that eye candy was floating around out there.  Even through Sunday (with yesterdays forecast) he only went down to 37f for a high and didn't have any snow.  He said yesterday. "lets just deal with today's weather and we'll look at the weekend later".  He already had a pretty good idea it wasn't gonna happen and  wasn't in any hurry to bite.  He didn't even flinch. 

Tonight he said that pretty much there wouldn't be more than some flakes here and there and the cold air would end up floating off east.  We'd get some chilly east winds the next couple days and that's pretty much it.  Unless that arctic front finds a way to move south, we're screwed. 

Can things change over the next few days?  Probably not in the PDX area.  There's a reason why things are called epic and historic.  Model agreement was not going to be there inside a couple days. 

We all want it so bad it really sucks.  With all the consistent blocking we've had, we're still in the ballpark for something good this winter, esp for us south of the Columbia R.  .  It won't be this time around I'm afraid. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, though, I hope the south Valley gets dumped on. Been a long time.

South Valley did get dumped on last December, Eugene had ~10".

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Tim how are your daffodils?  Mine are just starting to pop up.

If something good hits in January like everyone wants it's really going to crush my crocus.

I thought the site got shut down a while back.

I think they should charge $3 per month for access to this thread.  Everything else on the site would be free but this monthly thread should be behind a pay wall.

It's truly entertaining.

No idea.   We still have a couple inches of frozen concrete covering most of the yard.   

[Phishy Wx]

33 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

It was like everyone was hitting F5 at once.

I decided to take a nap

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

South Valley did get dumped on last December, Eugene had ~10".

Interesting. Would never guess it given how some posters whine about never scoring.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Once again Mark Nelsen was on the right track, even yesterday.  He was reluctant to go much beyond a couple days and he never took a bite of the snowball when all that eye candy was floating around out there.  Even through Sunday (with yesterdays forecast) he only went down to 37f for a high and didn't have any snow.  He said yesterday. "lets just deal with today's weather and we'll look at the weekend later".  He already had a pretty good idea it wasn't gonna happen and  wasn't in any hurry to bite.  He didn't even flinch. 

Tonight he said that pretty much there wouldn't be more than some flakes here and there and the cold air would end up floating off east.  We'd get some chilly east winds the next couple days and that's pretty much it.  Unless that arctic front finds a way to move south, we're screwed. 

Can things change over the next few days?  Probably not in the PDX area.  There's a reason why things are called epic and historic.  Model agreement was not going to be there inside a couple days. 

We all want it so bad it really sucks.  With all the consistent blocking we've had, we're still in the ballpark for something good this winter, esp for us south of the Columbia R.  .  It won't be this time around I'm afraid. 

Mark does this every time a week out. Sometimes he’s right sometimes he’s wrong. Nobody knows yet. Not even Lord Mark Nelsen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Once again Mark Nelsen was on the right track, even yesterday.  He was reluctant to go much beyond a couple days and he never took a bite of the snowball when all that eye candy was floating around out there.  Even through Sunday (with yesterdays forecast) he only went down to 37f for a high and didn't have any snow.  He said yesterday. "lets just deal with today's weather and we'll look at the weekend later".  He already had a pretty good idea it wasn't gonna happen and  wasn't in any hurry to bite.  He didn't even flinch. 

Tonight he said that pretty much there wouldn't be more than some flakes here and there and the cold air would end up floating off east.  We'd get some chilly east winds the next couple days and that's pretty much it.  Unless that arctic front finds a way to move south, we're screwed. 

Can things change over the next few days?  Probably not in the PDX area.  There's a reason why things are called epic and historic.  Model agreement was not going to be there inside a couple days. 

We all want it so bad it really sucks.  With all the consistent blocking we've had, we're still in the ballpark for something good this winter, esp for us south of the Columbia R.  .  It won't be this time around I'm afraid. 

Epic and historic as in 32 years and counting. Probably not again in this lifetime. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Mark does this every time a week out. Sometimes he’s right sometimes he’s wrong. Nobody knows yet. Not even Lord Mark Nelsen.

He’s taken a few L’s the past few years. But everyone acts like he’s God himself 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Interesting. Would never guess it given how some posters whine about never scoring.

He's had some big snow events in recent years, but no sub-freezing highs since 1985.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Interesting. Would never guess it given how some posters whine about never scoring.

We have had plenty of snow. Just not Arctic cold. I'd much prefer the snow if there were a choice between the two. It's just bizarre that there hasn't been an Arctic front hit here in a while.