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PNW December 2022 - Part II

Guest hawkstwelve

By Guest hawkstwelve
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth,

PSA: The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving.  That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app.  That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them.  A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified

IOS Link:https://apps.apple.com/us/app/mping/id584383400 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=edu.ou.cimms.mping&hl=en_US&gl=US&pli=1

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TeacherLori
TeacherLori

We continue to have gently wafting snowflakes all morning here in Lynnwood, which allows for one of my all-time favorite hobbies.😍❄️

VancouverIslandSouth
VancouverIslandSouth

Picked up about another inch this evening. Some of the roads are starting to get some legitimate snow banks. Also, noticing more cars nearly completely covered

Brennan
Brennan

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

image.gif

Check out that *minor* 90hr difference between the ICON and GFS at Haida Gwaii.. :lol:

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow for just the transition event and total snow for the run...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-1840000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-1904800.png

We need to work on snow down here. But even at face value I’d be super happy with this. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Seattle Proficient

Seattle

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might just be recency bias talking but the last several days have been one of the craziest model rides I’ve ever seen around here. And it’s probably not over yet 🎢 

Oh, it's definitely not over yet. Just enough time for one more good rug pull and push.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

No matter what happens out here next week... every run shows it all ends up on the East Coast for Christmas weekend.

As Matt said... jet extensions are easier for the models to handle.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1926400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1904800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MikeInEverett Mentor

MikeInEverett

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Amazing!! But please be wetter here…PLEASE!!! 1 foot or bust! 

You and I need Tuesday to be just a liiiitle more north. I think it’ll work out somehow whether we score Sunday or Tuesday

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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smerfylicious Mentor

smerfylicious

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might just be recency bias talking but the last several days have been one of the craziest model rides I’ve ever seen around here. And it’s probably not over yet 🎢 

I'm just happy that you're not gonna get screwed out of an event. You seem to miss out on a lot of the good ones, or maybe that's my own recency bias.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

You and I need Tuesday to be just a liiiitle more north. I think it’ll work out somehow whether we score Sunday or Tuesday

Tuesday is such complete wild card.    Will the ECMWF continue to trend south?   Will it reverse the trend and go back north?   Has it found the right answer on this run?     No idea until it stops moving so much!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted

Looking great for my area right now but I’m not going to get too excited yet as there are still going to be huge changes these next few days.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cold Snap said:

Looking great for my area right now but I’m not going to get too excited yet as there are still going to be huge changes these next few days.

Yeah... you score on Sunday night and Tuesday.     And the Sunday night c-zone action has been shown on every run now so I think that part is pretty easy and its going to happen.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cold Snap Grand Master

Cold Snap

Posted
Posted
Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... you score on Sunday night and Tuesday.     And the Sunday night c-zone action has been shown on every run now so I think that part is pretty easy and its going to happen.

Yeah right now that’s the time period I’m most excited about. I’m a little worried the Tuesday event is going to keep trending south especially since some models have it going into California. I remember in Jan 2020 the convergence zone was a constant signal on the models and I got hammered. The 8” the NAM was showing over my house actually verified too!

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 51

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm just happy that you're not gonna get screwed out of an event. You seem to miss out on a lot of the good ones, or maybe that's my own recency bias.

This area did great in February 2021, well over a foot of snow and highs in the 20s. But yeah besides that most of the big action has either been to the north or south the last five years. Mostly to the north.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday is such complete wild card.    Will the ECMWF continue to trend south?   Will it reverse the trend and go back north?   Has it found the right answer on this run?     No idea until it stops moving so much!  

My guess is it keeps bouncing around until at least Sunday.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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yellowstone Rising Star

yellowstone

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

Historically, does the convergence sound typically set up north of Seattle? Or can it set up in the city itself as well?

It can do a lot of things but generally it’s up around Everett and Lynnwood. If we’re lucky it drifts south as it weakens as the whole north end of the city ends up with something. That said, it’s set up between Tacoma and Seattle before too. 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

HEYOOOOOOOOOOOOO

trend-epsens-2022121612-f096.500h_anom-mean.conus.gif

LOCK THIS SHIZZ IN BROTHAS AND SYSTAS

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This area did great in February 2021, well over a foot of snow and highs in the 20s. But yeah besides that most of the big action has either been to the north or south the last five years. Mostly to the north.

Oh yeah and I almost didn’t even think about the 3-4” of heavy wet snow we had on April 11th this year. Thinking back on that one feels like a fever dream.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Guest hawkstwelve

Guest hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No matter what happens out here next week... every run shows it all ends up on the East Coast for Christmas weekend.

As Matt said... jet extensions are easier for the models to handle.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1926400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-1904800.png

There he is.
There he goes.
Mod preview in tow.

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