PNW December 2022 - Part II

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS makes a similar move towards the flatter occlusionary group. Going to stay all snow in Seattle on this run.

I always like the baroclinic stuff better than closed lows.  Closed lows get messy and are unpredictable.

Awesome run!

[Skier B]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I am really getting pumped now.  GFS is on board for snow for the Central and South Sound.

Definitely better!

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am really getting pumped now.  GFS is on board for snow for the Central and South Sound.

WOW had to check snow maps after you said that. Models seem to be converging on a snowy solution and I love it. To bed now, will see what new runs are like in the morn.

[gusky]

Big changes into Thurs. Thursday might be quite cold

[snow_wizard]

It's going to get nuts in the east wind areas after the snow.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 06z GFS trended colder. Good sign as we get closer to the event. Temperatures for Thursday 7am.

00z:

06z:

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z GFS trended colder. Good sign as we get closer to the event. Temperatures for Thursday 7am.

00z:

06z:

The 850s as the precip hits are a good bit colder on this run compared to previous runs. Somewhat in line with what the euro did as well. 850s wet bulb down to 1-2c over PDX. If this trend continues or the cold pool over PDX ends up a bit deeper due to the gorge, it could actually start out as some snow. Something to watch. 

As you noted, the surface temps are downright frigid so whatever falls should be frozen and the cold pool is deep enough and cold enough that sleet is much more likely to be the primary precip type rather than ZR.

 

 

[Kolk1604]

Looks similar to the Euro except way more snow up north 

[gusky]

even more snow for the Thurs/Fri system

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The 850s as the precip hits are a good bit colder on this run compared to previous runs. Somewhat in line with what the euro did as well. 850s wet bulb down to 1-2c over PDX. If this trend continues or the cold pool over PDX ends up a bit deeper due to the gorge, it could actually start out as some snow. Something to watch. 

As you noted, the surface temps are downright frigid so whatever falls should be frozen and the cold pool is deep enough and cold enough that sleet is much more likely to be the primary precip type rather than ZR.

 

 

Good points. I’m hoping for more sleet than freezing rain. 6z GFS has PDX and parts of east metro still below freezing through Saturday morning. The Gorge is going to be a mess.

[Cold Snap]

This week is looking like it could be really great for the Puget Sound area! The storm coming in Tuesday could really be something special!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

After this stretch of cold weather, the 6z GFS is showing a wetter pattern the last week of December. Heavy rain around day 10.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

I wonder when the NWS is going to start putting out advisories.

[Requiem]

Pretty marked improvement on the GEFS, wow.

[Hawksfan2008]

Slight bump north on the 06z EURO. Razor thin margin of error for Seattle…but that’s the reality of our snowstorms  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Problem is the outflow has yet to develop at Bellingham and that is a bad sign. Normally mean this thing has stalled or won't dig as far south. And now that I see the euro made another move north I'm starting to loose a huge amount of confidence. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Infact nws already lowered the wind advisory for up north.  The push of cold air Is looking very weak.

[Requiem]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Problem is the outflow has yet to develop at Bellingham and that is a bad sign. Normally mean this thing has stalled or won't dig as far south. And now that I see the euro made another move north I'm starting to loose a huge amount of confidence. 

Perhaps, but I wouldn't count it out yet-- EURO actually has southerly winds prevailing at BLI until late this morning. 

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Slight bump north on the 06z EURO. Razor thin margin of error for Seattle…but that’s the reality of our snowstorms  

Razor thin for sure.    The ECMWF continues to moderate this event.    It will probably still work out for Seattle but the ECMWF has been just as disappointing as the other models. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6z EURO out to Wednesday 4pm shows Arctic air starting to filter into the Columbia Basin. Moisture starting to show up offshore from the next system that will come onshore sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. Chances are increasing for a major snow/ice overrunning event from Eugene North up to Puget Sound. Parts of the WA/OR Coast might also see wintry precipitation. Offshore flow will be strong as the system approaches.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS colder with that 2nd push Wednesday-Friday morning!

High temp Thursday 17 PDX!

850s much colder for the Gorge/Columbia Basin

The Dalles 6z: -15.1c, 00z: -10.6c. Moses Lake 6z -18.3c, 00z: -14.9c.

[The Blob]

Well I guess I'm not going to work atleast Thursday night, we'll see about friday

[Gradient Keeper]

YWL-BLI -15.5mb. Fraser outflow into Ferndale, Lynden, and should begin very soon in Bellingham. Arctic front now pushing into Oyosoos on the border north of Omak.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Had a dream that was so real about my wife it about blew my fukin mind. Been up since 2am. It was so real I could swear she was there, I could feel her presence and even smell her. I'm not kidding it was just crazy.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

39 in Bellingham and just a few miles north in Ferndale it's 27 with a north breeze.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

6z EURO out to Wednesday 4pm shows Arctic air starting to filter into the Columbia Basin. Moisture starting to show up offshore from the next system that will come onshore sometime Thursday afternoon/evening. Chances are increasing for a major snow/ice overrunning event from Eugene North up to Puget Sound. Parts of the WA/OR Coast might also see wintry precipitation. Offshore flow will be strong as the system approaches.

 The 06Z control run is way colder for Friday... only 25 in Seattle that day (00Z run showed 37).    Could be major ice issues.   And the 06Z GFS absolutely buries the north Sound with the transition event now.    The back end of this thing might be much more complicated... which is usually how it works.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already 23 In sumas

[Gradient Keeper]

BLI down to 33. Outflow any moment now.

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS is still cold even on Saturday...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 The 06Z control run is way colder for Friday... only 25 in Seattle that day (00Z run showed 37).    Could be major ice issues.   And the 06Z GFS absolutely buries the north Sound with the transition event now.    The back end of this thing might be much more complicated... which is usually how it works.

 

Historical the boundaries between cold and warm air are between Seattle and tacoma on a bunch of events I can remember. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Holy ***, Bellingham went from 39 to 33 in 13 minutes when the wind switched to north.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GFS is still cold even on Saturday...

Could be a very major event especially for areas exposed to the Gorge

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pelly ranch Yukon a staggering-51 degrees. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 below zero!!! 

[Timmy]

Light rain here this morning and 35f

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Holy ***, Bellingham went from 39 to 33 in 13 minutes when the wind switched to north.

ECMWF shows Bellingham will be down to 23 this afternoon.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33.1˚F and heavy wet flakes are coming down hard. It’s here.

[Timmy]

The dalles down to 31 after torching last night, west-east gradient has really slacked off.  Now sure when to expect the east wind to return.

[TT-SEA]

But the cold air has not moved much even by tomorrow afternoon... might take until Wednesday for Seattle.