PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Cloud]

Pretty crazy how the snow line is drawn depending on how the low tracks. Jumping around quite a bit. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Pretty crazy how the snow line is drawn depending on how the low tracks. Jumping around quite a bit. 

The good news is the 0z EPS had it more suppressed than the previous run.  Good chance this works out, but I'm prepared for just part of the event to be snow here.

[HuskyMaestro]

17 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Definitely feels like the Euro op run is an outlier for the near term. Through Tuesday’s snow totals on the 0z EPS remains largely unchanged.
 

In fact, it looked like it improved with 45% of the members showing 4”+, up from 33% on the 12z

Hoping those high chances for 1"+ and 4"+ slide down past Pierce County, not feeling too comfortable with that steep dropoff.

[MikeInEverett]

Some remnants of the CZ have slid up here and have brought flurries and a light dusting. I’ll take what I can get. That 06z NAM for up here would be a dream.

[snow_wizard]

Even though SEA is stuck at 32 their dp has dropped to 23.  I like that.

[MikeInEverett]

06z NAM also shows a decent amount of snow hanging around the sound through the afternoon tomorrow before the next system heads in

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

06z NAM also shows a decent amount of snow hanging around the sound through the afternoon tomorrow before the next system heads in

I think there is going to be a lot of light snow around the area well before the main event on Tuesday.  The models are advertising it and they totally missed pre runner stuff during the last cold snap.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM is even colder. Of course it is the NAM. Still though, even for the NAM it ain't common for it to spit out numbers like this for SEA and PDX.

[snow_wizard]

Brutal in Whatcom County.  A lot of mid teens and high winds.

[Kolk1604]

Maybe i'm looking at this wrong or it's not making it obvious, but I don't see any lows for Tuesday... 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Maybe i'm looking at this wrong or it's not making it obvious, but I don't see any lows for Tuesday... 

Not a very strong low at all-- that little deviation at hour 42 approaching the coast is the system. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Off topic, but if you look at the GFS ensemble through the first half of January it actually looks fairly chilly…

[MikeInEverett]

Spending my last few minutes before bed doing the ol’ hold the flashlight out the window to see the flakes. Just a few flurries but still fun to look at.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s been snowing here for about 10hrs non stop with just over an inch to show for it.  Persistent light snow

[snow_wizard]

The ICON has a lot of snow for tomorrow night.  It's really speeding up the timing.  The low track is kind of a bummer / so so, but all of the early stuff is easily snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns has hit -18 during the past hour… Record is -20 from 1984. See if they can avoid mixing out enough to hit it. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Maybe i'm looking at this wrong or it's not making it obvious, but I don't see any lows for Tuesday... 

It's a baroclinic zone.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s been snowing here for about 10hrs non stop with just over an inch to show for it.  Persistent light snow

I ended up with about 0.6 here, but it fell in a couple of hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What’s wild is most stations around Burns have bumped into the 20s so they will probably mix out by morning. 

[Requiem]

ICON is even colder than last run

[snow_wizard]

WTF?  This is tomorrow night on the ICON.

[Cascadia_Wx]

A year ago right now it was anafronting pretty good here.

[snow_wizard]

If the ICON is correct there will be a whole lot of snow before the low track is even an issue.  Wow!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[runninthruda206]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?  This is tomorrow night on the ICON.

Like before the tue system arrives???

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think i'm in the purple! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

ICON is actually straight up fantastic.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

Like before the tue system arrives???

Yes.  This is just a moisture plume before the low.  If this verifies there will be a lot of happy people on here.

Even the low track is a bit too far north the rain period would be brief and probably only south of Seattle.

[Brennan]

Some lingering flurries out here right now. Unexpected. 17*f. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow!

Not sure I trust it, but I would be very happy with this.

[WeatherGeek2022]

don't let us down icon.

[HuskyMaestro]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow!

Fife is right in the pepto, ain’t no way.. lol  

[WeatherGeek2022]

on that note gonna head to bed. hopefully no more topsy turvy by morning.

[Kolk1604]

[SouthHillFrosty]

That line is getting close to King County….but boom!

[SouthHillFrosty]

@Kolk1604 we are right on this fine line of 2 inches or 8 inches!

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@Kolk1604 we are right on this fine line of 2 inches or 8 inches!

Right we're so close! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GFS is persistent with a band of heavy snow over KC

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GFS is persistent with a band of heavy snow over KC

Looks like it's on the Pierce/King line I'll take it!

I don't have elevation support so i'm going to need temps to be on point.