PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Unfortunately the NAM's bounds are shoddy at best. Going to miss on some important details upstream over the Pacific... But imagine if this came to fruition!

Its a wider path but the amounts aren't far off for central sound that are being shown by GFS, Icon and GEM.  

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Unfortunately the NAM's bounds are shoddy at best. Going to miss on some important details upstream over the Pacific... But imagine if this came to fruition!

I have seen the NAM be quite accurate for my area! I believe it nailed my big snow of February 2018 where most other models did not show it to nearly the extent. 

[Meatyorologist]

12z GFS has a 1016mb low landfalling in Neah Bay... That is not a good omen for Seattle snow climatologically speaking.

It does slide it SE to the Grays Harbor-Shelton area after that though, which would open the door to relaxing southerlies in the central Sound. But that could be due to its overestimation of outflow suppressing the low further than it should.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I have seen the NAM be quite accurate for my area! I believe it nailed my big snow of February 2018 where most other models did not show it to nearly the extent. 

It's accurate-ish when local details are completely modeled within its bounds... in this case the relevant sfc pressure field extends far out into the Pacific.

[Meatyorologist]

While we wait, it is flurrying nicely here. 28F.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Dry and 18°F.

[xfkirsten]

11 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Did you see the snow just start to vanish once you passed Everett Mall Way on I-5 going north? Literally right as you get out of the city snow amounts start to pick up lol

Yes! I was shocked when we came out of the arena around 9pm, and it was still snowing, but nothing at all had accumulated. Then I got on the freeway, and it only took a few exits before it all came back.

[Gradient Keeper]

Burns was -24 last night

[Snownerd3000]

Got to love having a 1056 arctic H directly to our north

 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

At this point, I’m think I’m going to rely on the post-low snow for any significant accumulations, which is fine especially if it over performs.

[Prairiedog]

41 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z GFS shows the overrunning system arrive Thursday afternoon. Looks like snow from Salem North.

 

Somehow, one way or another, I'll get warm nosed..  I feel it coming.

[Hawksfan2008]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z GFS has a 1016mb low landfalling in Neah Bay... That is not a good omen for Seattle snow climatologically speaking.

It does slide it SE to the Grays Harbor-Shelton area after that though, which would open the door to relaxing southerlies in the central Sound. But that could be due to its overestimation of outflow suppressing the low further than it should.

Well said. I think orientation/track is more important than the landfall since there is so much cold air behind it. Even if there is a southerly surge it could be short lived if things break right. Will be fun to finally look at a satellite instead of a model. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Puntzi Mountain, BC now down to -52°F.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

At this point, I’m think I’m going to rely on the post-low snow for any significant accumulations, which is fine especially if it over performs.

My expectation as well.

[Jbolin]

I'll be honest, I've got a sinking feeling knowing we're literally on the edge of a razor blade going into tonight/tomorrow.

It takes so much just to get where we're at now but so little to f*** it all up.

 

[lowlandsnow]

Has the UKMET ran on pivotal yet?

[snowbustcity]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

120th St in Lake City! I think we've talked about this before?

You’re totally right! Doh!

[MossMan]

Total new snow this morning! 

[snow maniac]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Total new snow this morning! 

Looks like what I got.

[The Blob]

This is what Jeff Ferguson is going with

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Total new snow this morning! 

Oops….wrong pic

Banana plant elevation gave me some sticking white stuff 

[Katzen]

The deck check this morning

Between Issaquah and Renton Highlands

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

This is what Jeff Ferguson is going with

That second graphic would be useful for all people to conceptualize, but alas, nobody looks past their once weekly check on their phone app.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

This is what Jeff Ferguson is going with

Looks a bit colder than Mark's from last night.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That -52 in sw bc blows my mind.

[Snownerd3000]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z GFS has a 1016mb low landfalling in Neah Bay... That is not a good omen for Seattle snow climatologically speaking.

It does slide it SE to the Grays Harbor-Shelton area after that though, which would open the door to relaxing southerlies in the central Sound. But that could be due to its overestimation of outflow suppressing the low further than it should.

Perhaps the GFS is considering the weak low coming in won't pull much in the way of a warm nose/devils tongue into the sound .  That is one helluva deep arctic H over BC

[Meatyorologist]

I'm leaning with a HRRR type solution right now. Temporary switchover to rain early in the morning, back to wet snow around noon. May not accumulate below 500' when it switches back unless precip rates are high.

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I'm leaning with a HRRR type solution right now. Temporary switchover to rain early in the morning, back to wet snow around noon. May not accumulate below 500' when it switches back unless precip rates are high.

How much does the position of that low affect the surge of cold air though the Gorge Wednesday night?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quote

5:50 AM PST Monday 19 December 2022
Snowfall warning in effect for:

• Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
• Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
• Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
• Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
• Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Another snowy day for the B.C. south coast.

Time span: Tonight to Tuesday.

Locations: Metro Vancouver, Greater Victoria, Malahat Highway - Goldstream to Mill Bay, Fraser Valley, Sunshine Coast - Gibsons to Earls Cove, Southern Gulf Islands, East Vancouver Island - Duncan to Nanaimo, East Vancouver Island - Nanoose Bay to Fanny Bay, West Vancouver Island, and Inland Vancouver Island.

Snowfall accumulations: 10 to 15 cm, and possibly near 20 cm for Victoria, Malahat Highway, Southern Gulf Islands, Lake Cowichan, Port Renfrew, and East Vancouver Island from Duncan to Fanny Bay.

Remarks: A low pressure system will land in the Washington State tonight. The associated front will brush through the very southern part of British Columbia giving another round of snow starting late this evening.

Due to outflow winds, heavier snow is expected for Victoria, Malahat Highway, Southern Gulf Islands, Lake Cowichan, Port Renfrew, and East Vancouver Island from Duncan to Fanny Bay.

Snow will taper off late Tuesday morning on Vancouver Island and Tuesday afternoon on the mainland side.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

10–15 cm = 4–6".

[Jbolin]

Here comes the rain 

[Skagit Weather]

21F and light flurries currently. It could be quite a snowstorm up this way, but models are starting to show a transition to rain even up here for at least part of it so I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Blizzard777]

Flurries

[fubario]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Here comes the rain 

The Cult has a great song about this

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

The Cult has a great song about this

Like a desert sun that burns my skin 

[Kayla]

57 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Where's @Kayla? What's it looking like up there this morning?

Dropped down to -15F here early this morning. Currently -6F. Looks like the airport dropped down to at least -20F.

Models really under estimated the southern extent of the Arctic cold yesterday and last night. I don't think any had us even dropping below zero yet. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm leaning with a HRRR type solution right now. Temporary switchover to rain early in the morning, back to wet snow around noon. May not accumulate below 500' when it switches back unless precip rates are high.

I don't see enough southerlies north of Tacoma to remove the cold. Iooks like the nam 3km keeps the southerlies south of tacoma the entire event. Looking like a large event for most places and i totally expect to get nuked out here at home.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Burns was -24 last night

Looks like that beats the record of -20 from 1984.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Looks like that beats the record of -20 from 1984.

Fuken incredible.

[Hawksfan2008]

Ukmet also north but shows a convergence zone behind the front similar to the EURO. Many might have to bank on that.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't see enough southerlies north of Tacoma to remove the cold. Iooks like the nam 3km keeps the southerlies south of tacoma the entire event. Looking like a large event for most places and i totally expect to get nuked out here at home.

No matter what the Hood Canal is going to get bodyslammed by this.