PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Blizzard777]

It’s snowing!!! 
Real flakes too
34.2* and wind calmmm

[TT-SEA]

In addition to the northward shift... the ICON is much faster.     I can only see precip in 6-hour blocks on WB but the map below is 6-hour precip between 9 a.m. - 3 p.m. and it looks to me like the precip must be wrapping up by 9 or 10 a.m.

 

[Ziess]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NAM drops a solid 0.60 in QPF from the first round of precip Thursday night-Friday AM. This is the temp after all of this precip falls from the first band.

Things are gonna get really messy here if this is how it actually unfolds. 

 

That warm nose in Clackamas county surely can’t be accurate. 

[Seattle]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like rain might make it to the king/snoh line….. 

got the GFS upcoming up. We need some Jim positivity! 

I need Jim, Meaty, and Snowmizer to tell me its going to be okay

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NAM drops a solid 0.60 in QPF from the first round of precip Thursday night-Friday AM. This is the temp after all of this precip falls from the first band.

Things are gonna get really messy here if this is how it actually unfolds. 

 

Models seem to be trending wetter. On one hand it means snow to start is probably more likely but on the other hand it'll probably be messy. I'm landing back at PDX on the morning of the 25th so I'm hoping ice doesn't delay it or anything

[lowlandsnow]

There is just not enough precipitation looks like a total bust

[MossMan]

So we are packing this one up? Calling it good? Looking forward to late January! Perhaps a Jan 1996 redux! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow rgem went south some

Edited December 20, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[runninthruda206]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow rgem went south some

[Doinko]

RGEM is cold

 

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow rgem went south some

Wow I’m in the Dark blue with that southward shift!

[Doinko]

Just now, Doinko said:

RGEM is cold

 

Significant Willamette Valley ice storm as well

 

[SnowWillarrive]

13 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Just getting home to Yelm and it is raining. It’s just not cold enough. 

Wow would not think it would be raining in yelm 

[TacomaWx]

At this point we might as well just look at these…

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rgem might be picking up what I see on the sat. I do not see a north movement.  The low had been headed east like Jaya said

[Jbolin]

35 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You mean Seattle south?

Nope

[TeacherLori]

It's now warmed up to 32 in Lynnwood, and my snowdust has gotten big and fluffy.

(Hope it doesn't get any warmer!!)

[MikeInEverett]

Yeah precip in the south sound is oddly weak right now. Who knows right around now is supposed to be when things start to pick up so we’ll see what happens

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The NAM drops a solid 0.60 in QPF from the first round of precip Thursday night-Friday AM. This is the temp after all of this precip falls from the first band.

Things are gonna get really messy here if this is how it actually unfolds. 

 

Yeah, that stood out to me as well. Column goes to sleet around 10pm on Thursday. Although shaving a half degree off those late evening 850mb temps could easily mean another 2-3" of snow with the ratios we'll be seeing.

[jcmcgaffey]

22 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

In the highlands??

I am in north seattle. I was in the Renton highlands living with the in laws the past year while our house was torn down and rebuilt in seattle. 

[Perturbed Member]

27 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

with the air as dry as it will be, there will be a lot of time eaten up moistening up the atmosphere.  If that's the case doesn't that just bring us closer to ZR time?  That east wind is going to eat a lot of snow for a while.  By then I'm concerned those mid levels will maybe starting to warm. Thoughts on that?  Timing is going to be important here as there may not be a big window for snow.

The east winds will eat moisture but you do get cooling in exchange for that, but yeah you are right that we will probably have hours of virga and watching radar echoes that don't even reach the ground. 

This was from the 18z NAM but you can see this wetbulbing effect even aloft. It actually showed the whole area as sleet initially and then you can see it try to change over to snow from north to south as the evaporative cooling takes effect aloft. 

Eventually the WAA will warm the mid levels above freezing and it will change over to sleet and ZR but the best bet for some quick inch or two of snow would be to get some solid precip rates early on to maximize wet bulbing at 850mb and keep it snow as long as we can before the warm air eventually wins over up there. 

There are plenty of things that need to go right for us to get any decent snow here and I suspect we really won't know until 24-36 hours out. 

[lowlandsnow]

Will precip rates increase at all for the central sound?

[Parrot]

My location in Everett still only has very light snow  maybe a fresh couple tenths at most. Radar says I should be getting the good stuff but no luck

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Olympia just switched to snow

[SouthHillFrosty]

RGEM throws a serious bone 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow rgem went south some

Those are some gnarly snowfall rates

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, TeacherLori said:

It's now warmed up to 32 in Lynnwood, and my snowdust has gotten big and fluffy.

(Hope it doesn't get any warmer!!)

Yeah, that's very warm. Doesn't bode well for tomorrow morning I think.

[Snownerd3000]

42 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Joe Z said he feels everyone seattle north will be a slushfest.

Apparently concurred by Jacob Deflitch (NWS) 

And they were referring to this or Friday's storm?

[Meatyorologist]

Bulk of precip is SE of RGEM verification off the coast for 03z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That small shift on the rgem would be a game changer. 

[TacomaWx]

This got buried on the last page but this gives you a good idea of what’s going on at 2500’ and what’s going on with the low. 

[TacomaWx]

Been at 90% snow here for almost an hour now. 

[joelgombiner]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

This got buried on the last page but this gives you a good idea of what’s going on at 2500’ and what’s going on with the low. 

Anyone know how these maps are created? 

[thisisacreativename]

Beginning to snow for real here it seems.

[dhoffine]

Moisture seems stronger to the north.  Is that expected?  Will it drop south??

[snowbustcity]

Been all snow for a while now in NE Seattle. Sticking to all surfaces. 

[GHweatherChris]

39 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Per radar, should be showtime here soon.  Just a matter of how long can the cold air hold......

Never mind, the initial precip is dwindling as it moves ashore, now the question is will it be cold enough when the main push of moisture moves in later.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, dhoffine said:

Moisture seems stronger to the north.  Is that expected?  Will it drop south??

Shown by all models now.   Precip is heavier from Seattle northward until early morning when the whole thing pushes rapidly south across the rest of western WA.    

[Jbolin]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Those are some gnarly snowfall rates

ESPECIALLY in the central sound (zoom in on that sourltherly movement)

[MossMan]

Really starting to come down now! 
Still 23.0