October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Timmy]

I think I just need to stop falling for the bait...

And even if I did, I actually think Tim and I are capable of working things out just fine. It's when others start piling it on that things get stupid.

Sounds like you are saying if you respond less like you usually respond, there would be more peace on the forum. I would agee with that. Also putting a smiley emoji at the end of a post doesn’t make up for the offense intended on said post.

[Jesse]

No doubt... it snowballs on here.   

 

I did not even think we were arguing about the fall color.   I was thinking you would agree and find it interesting.   It was only intended for you based on our earlier discussion.

 

Fair enough. I will try to not view your posts through such a defensive lens. Given years of history though, it might take some time.

[Jesse]

Sounds like you are saying if you respond less like you usually respond, there would be more peace on the forum. I would agee with that. Also putting a smiley emoji at the end of a post doesn’t make up for the offense intended on said post.

 

It's not just me. But I appreciate the sage advice.

[TT-SEA]

Fair enough. I will try to not view your posts through such a defensive lens. Given years of history though, it might take some time.

 

I understand.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z GFS with that cold air just north of the border in the clown range. You wonder how much longer it will be bottled up?

[snow_wizard]

I'm beginning to think we might see a cold snap of some sort sometime during the first week of November.  Such a big and persistent ridge could certainly retrograde without much warning.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble shows a retrogression signature at day 10 and the GFS ensemble mean shows a steady 850 drop during week 2.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm beginning to think we might see a cold snap of some sort sometime during the first week of November. Such a big and persistent ridge could certainly retrograde without much warning. The 12z ECMWF ensemble shows a retrogression signature at day 10 and the GFS ensemble mean shows a steady 850 drop during week 2.

Man I hope so. Once we get 3-4 runs of it I will start to get excited.

[James Jones]

I'm beginning to think we might see a cold snap of some sort sometime during the first week of November.  Such a big and persistent ridge could certainly retrograde without much warning.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble shows a retrogression signature at day 10 and the GFS ensemble mean shows a steady 850 drop during week 2.

 

November 1955 but a week earlier???

 

I agree, there are clearly signs of a possible intrusion of cold continental air down into the US sometime in early November. Where exactly it ends up going (or if it ends up happening at all) is impossible to determine from this far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I had 6.39" of rain this week. 

[Front Ranger]

It's not just me. But I appreciate the sage advice.

 

That's the reason I keep coming back. So much sage advice here. Almost too much sometimes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So were there any notable arctic outbreaks that affected the PNW in the 50s? I don't seem to hear about many that have affected Oregon, likely since we are further south and it makes that much of a difference as that small bit of extra solar heating is enough to keep us just above that threshold.  That said, I remember a strange event in Eugene in Nov, 2003, where a steady band of cold rain became so heavy that an evaporative cooling process brought the snow level to the surface.  Maybe something similar this year?

[TT-SEA]

So were there any notable arctic outbreaks that affected the PNW in the 50s? I don't seem to hear about many that have affected Oregon, likely since we are further south and it makes that much of a difference as that small bit of extra solar heating is enough to keep us just above that threshold. That said, I remember a strange event in Eugene in Nov, 2003, where a steady band of cold rain became so heavy that an evaporative cooling process brought the snow level to the surface. Maybe something similar this year?

Definitely no arctic outbreaks in the 1950s around here. Very warm decade. And yes... we can state that there will be a persistent band of precip over Eugene that will turn to snow. Its a given now.

[Front Ranger]

So were there any notable arctic outbreaks that affected the PNW in the 50s? I don't seem to hear about many that have affected Oregon, likely since we are further south and it makes that much of a difference as that small bit of extra solar heating is enough to keep us just above that threshold.  That said, I remember a strange event in Eugene in Nov, 2003, where a steady band of cold rain became so heavy that an evaporative cooling process brought the snow level to the surface.  Maybe something similar this year?

 

Jan/Feb 1950, Nov 1955, and Jan 1957 were the big ones. Also notable ones in Jan 1954 and Feb 1956. And a few other more minor ones.

[snow_wizard]

Jan/Feb 1950, Nov 1955, and Jan 1957 were the big ones. Also notable ones in Jan 1954 and Feb 1956. And a few other more minor ones.

 

Can't forget March 1951 and March 1955.  March 1951 is the snowiest month on record for some stations and SEA dropped to 11 in 1955.

[Front Ranger]

Can't forget March 1951 and March 1955.  March 1951 is the snowiest month on record for some stations and SEA dropped to 11 in 1955.

 

Yeah, but PDX had highs in the upper 30s to low 40s with those. Not quite what TWL was looking for in terms of Arctic out breaks, I don't think.

[Phil]

I'm beginning to think we might see a cold snap of some sort sometime during the first week of November. Such a big and persistent ridge could certainly retrograde without much warning. The 12z ECMWF ensemble shows a retrogression signature at day 10 and the GFS ensemble mean shows a steady 850 drop during week 2.

Second week of November.

[Deweydog]

Definitely no arctic outbreaks in the 1950s around here. Very warm decade. And yes... we can state that there will be a persistent band of precip over Eugene that will turn to snow. Its a given now.

Only if they can avoid a high over 69 over the next week.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, but PDX had highs in the upper 30s to low 40s with those. Not quite what TWL was looking for in terms of Arctic out breaks, I don't think.

 

True.  The 1950s may have been harsher up this way.  Jan 1950 was quite a bit colder at SEA than PDX.

[snow_wizard]

Second week of November.

 

Very possible given the MJO will be more favorable by then.  I'm hoping for more of a warning type cold snap than a big event that early.

[Jesse]

True. The 1950s may have been harsher up this way. Jan 1950 was quite a bit colder at SEA than PDX.

1950s winters were pretty harsh for everyone in the PNW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow, embarrassing AF.  Should have read my post before I sent it.  I wondered if there were any arctic outbreaks in NOVEMBER of any of those years in the 50s.  My great aunt told me all about the snowstorms they had in the 50s when she moved up here, and she lived in Drain near the top of the Umpqua/Willamette divide.

[TT-SEA]

Wow, embarrassing AF.  Should have read my post before I sent it.  I wondered if there were any arctic outbreaks in NOVEMBER of any of those years in the 50s.  My great aunt told me all about the snowstorms they had in the 50s when she moved up here, and she lived in Drain near the top of the Umpqua/Willamette divide.

 

Ahhhh... that makes sense.   November of 1955 was pretty epic I have heard.

 

Looks like there was a 23/7 day with lots of snow on the ground in my area on 11/14/1955.   That is amazing.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, embarrassing AF.  Should have read my post before I sent it.  I wondered if there were any arctic outbreaks in NOVEMBER of any of those years in the 50s.  My great aunt told me all about the snowstorms they had in the 50s when she moved up here, and she lived in Drain near the top of the Umpqua/Willamette divide.

 

Nov 1955 produced 4 straight sub-freezing days at EUG, with the coldest high being 24 on 11/16 and coldest low of 14. Not quite as impressive as some places further north, but still their coldest November cold wave on record.

[wx_statman]

Wow, embarrassing AF.  Should have read my post before I sent it.  I wondered if there were any arctic outbreaks in NOVEMBER of any of those years in the 50s.  My great aunt told me all about the snowstorms they had in the 50s when she moved up here, and she lived in Drain near the top of the Umpqua/Willamette divide.

1955 was a beast, 1952 had a decent dry cold snap, 1959 had an impressive outflow event for mid-November, and 1958 flirted with Arctic air a couple times but never quite delivered.

[Front Ranger]

Ahhhh... that makes sense.   November of 1955 was pretty epic I have heard.

 

Looks like there was a 23/7 day with lots of snow on the ground in my area on 11/14/1955.   That is amazing.

 

Some of the more notable stats from Nov 1955.

 

- low of -1 at OLM

- Landsburg had 4 straight highs below 25 and a low of 4

- Battle Ground had a low of 4

- SLE low of 9

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So were there any notable arctic outbreaks that affected the PNW in the 50s? I don't seem to hear about many that have affected Oregon, likely since we are further south and it makes that much of a difference as that small bit of extra solar heating is enough to keep us just above that threshold.  That said, I remember a strange event in Eugene in Nov, 2003, where a steady band of cold rain became so heavy that an evaporative cooling process brought the snow level to the surface.  Maybe something similar this year?

 

Its mostly just because the majority of the posters here are from Washington. Also I was just going to say, you seem to shortchange 92-93 a bit. It was by far the best winter in the Willamette Valley for snow in my lifetime. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Its mostly just because the majority of the posters here are from Washington. Also I was just going to say, you seem to shortchange 92-93 a bit. It was by far the best winter in the Willamette Valley for snow in my lifetime. 

 

I vaguely remember that one.  Lived in Sheridan just west of McMinnville during that time and I do remember it being a cold and fairly snowy winter.  I'm wondering, when was the last "Siberian Express" type event we had here?  Would it have been 13-14 in early December when places near Tillamook hit -10? My mom tells me about what sounds like one of those events from 1972 when it dropped to single digits and about a foot of snow in the west valley.

[James Jones]

Some of the most notable stats from Nov 1955.

 

- low of -1 at OLM

- Landsburg had 4 straight highs below 25 and a low of 4

- Battle Ground had a low of 4

- SLE low of 9

 

21 degree high on 11/12 at SEA and the low of 6 on 11/15 are also nuts. Those would be top tier for any day of the year, but early-mid November is just bonkers. There are only two colder lows on record at SEA, from the late Jan/Feb 1950 blast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I vaguely remember that one.  Lived in Sheridan just west of McMinnville during that time and I do remember it being a cold and fairly snowy winter.  I'm wondering, when was the last "Siberian Express" type event we had here?  Would it have been 13-14 in early December when places near Tillamook hit -10? My mom tells me about what sounds like one of those events from 1972 when it dropped to single digits and about a foot of snow in the west valley.

 

Yeah I would say that was our last major outbreak. Feb 2014 came close. December 1972 was a beast. -12 at Salem and Eug.

[snow_wizard]

1950s winters were pretty harsh for everyone in the PNW.

 

Very true.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

55/50 so far today. I hope we at least get some reasonably cool nights coming up. 

[Jesse]

55/50 so far today. I hope we at least get some reasonably cool nights coming up.

Doo points still in the low 50s at PDX. Not off to a great start.

[Kayla]

Second week of November.

 

I'm feeling that second week as well, a la pre-Thanksgiving blast. ~10th - 20th. Book it! 

[Phil]

MJO is roaring through Phase-6/WPAC right now. Will propagate right across the dateline (phases 7/8), then probably hit a wall as the Niña background state destructively interferes.

 

Still, it will perturb the Niña system for awhile, perhaps even degrading it until convection restarts in the IO/Indo domain.

[Phil]

Doo points still in the low 50s at PDX. Not off to a great start.

Ha. I might start using that one.

[stuffradio]

This is like a wonderful message board version of a sitcom.

It's a bit more violent than Seinfeld.

[Deweydog]

MJO is roaring through Phase-6/WPAC right now. Will propagate right across the dateline (phases 7/8), then probably hit a wall as the Niña background state destructively interferes.

 

Still, it will perturb the Niña system for awhile, perhaps even degrading it until convection restarts in the IO/Indo domain.

As long as I have snow on the ground by Veteran's Day I'll be good.

[Kayla]

As long as I have snow on the ground by Veteran's Day I'll be good.

 

What happen to frozen Tofurky day?? 

[Deweydog]

What happen to frozen Tofurky day??

Takes time to freeze a turkey solid.

[Kayla]

Takes time to freeze a turkey solid.

 

Sounds like a big turkey.