October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Absoutely beautiful fall day! Should get the mushrooms popping finally. I know Jesse will be excited about that.

What kind of mushrooms? Chanterelles? Morels? Liberty caps?

[Geos]

Cleared out nicely imby. Temp on the new instrument is reading a little high - will have to work on fine tuning it.

 

http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

[Deweydog]

PDX stalling out at 71? No 80???

[Sometimesdylan]

The rain has started here. Gonna be wet. 3-5 inches tomorrow.

 

The NWS forecast discussion for Juneau mentioned some cold northerly outflow next week. So it begins...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z going in a good direction.

[Front Ranger]

Talking about the short and mid term. 590dm ridges in late October aren’t climo.

 

True. In the context of the convo, I was just talking about the pattern coming up, which was looking possibly cold at first but trending more towards climo.

 

Another case where my point wasn't actually contradicting your point, but you still took it that way. I was simply adding to what you said by saying that the upcoming pattern was trending more towards climo, not saying that everything has trended that way lately.

[Timmy]

What kind of mushrooms? Chanterelles? Morels? Liberty caps?

Chanterelles, oysters, lobsters, cauliflower, hedgehogs. Anything delicious.

[Front Ranger]

Chanterelles, oysters, lobsters, cauliflower, hedgehogs. Anything delicious.

 

Odd post. 

[Jesse]

True. In the context of the convo, I was just talking about the pattern coming up, which was looking possibly cold at first but trending more towards climo.

 

Another case where my point wasn't actually contradicting your point, but you still took it that way. I was simply adding to what you said by saying that the upcoming pattern was trending more towards climo, not saying that everything has trended that way lately.

Don’t sweat it. Matt knows what we both meant better than either of us did.

[van city]

18z going in a good direction.

12z GEM Ensembles

[Timmy]

Odd post.

Those are the “common” names for some pnw edible mushrooms.

 

The year has been terrible so far. I think it had to do with no moisture to speak of all summer and suddenly a decent amount, but only to dry out, rinse repeat. They haven’t had a chance to get going with sustained damp/mild conditions.

[Front Ranger]

Those are the “common” names for some pnw edible mushrooms.

 

The year has been terrible so far. I think it had to do with no moisture to speak of all summer and suddenly a decent amount, but only to dry out, rinse repeat. They haven’t had a chance to get going with sustained damp/mild conditions.

 

Ah, got it. Clearly I'm no mushroom connoisseur.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty nice ensemble improvement. Five go -10c. Operational is on the warm side.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Check out Yakima! Even colder members between -10c and -15c which tells us what? Yep, that this might not be cold maritime air mass rather it could be a cold continental/arctic air mass coming down from the north-northeast. Hmmm.... Don't rule out that rare early Fall cold shot just yet. If anything it looks chilly with fairly low snow levels.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[stuffradio]

[Jbolin]

Check out Yakima! Even colder members between -10c and -15c which tells us what? Yep, that this might not be cold maritime air mass rather it could be a cold continental/arctic air mass coming down from the north-northeast. Hmmm.... Don't rule out that rare early Fall cold shot just yet. If anything it looks chilly with fairly low snow levels.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens_18Z.png

....and so it begins

[crf450ish]

November 1985 was a "wonderful" month. In fact, one of the best from my childhood. 2 weeks of (often) bitter cold, multiple snow events, clear cold sunny days with over 15" to 20" of snow on the ground w/ very little to no melting. It was a rare and special event... 

The entire time between December 15th or so till like the end of February was like that at my house last winter. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like everywhere from Kelso northward managed to get into an inversion very quickly with this ridge.  It only hit 55 here today.

[Jesse]

Looks like everywhere from Kelso northward managed to get into an inversion very quickly with this ridge.  It only hit 55 here today.

 

Jelly.

[snow_wizard]

Jelly.

 

It happens sometimes.  I think tomorrow will be even better as clearing skies allow more cooling tonight and freezing levels go even higher.  I could see areas down your way getting cold tomorrow night as pressure gradients relax.

[BLI snowman]

Jelly.

 

The sun today was so gross.

[Jesse]

The sun today was so gross.

Not as gross as my opinion!

[Deweydog]

Today was ventilated hell.

[Jesse]

Today was ventilated hell.

No ventiliation in hell. Satan likes it stuffy.

[Deweydog]

No ventiliation in hell. Satan likes it stuffy.

He loves inversion-induced transition events. It's in keeping with the fact all transvestites go to hell.

[TT-SEA]

East wind finally arrived... crystal clear now.

[Karl Bonner]

Cooler air must have slipped into the Gorge from the east-northeast today.  Temps in The Dalles really stalled out once the east wind kicked up.  Definitely wasn't a developing inversion; no haze or yellow sun.

[Deweydog]

00z!!!

 

Close your accounts! Pull the kids out of school! Bury the dead hooker in your trunk before the ground freezes!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00z!!!

 

Close your accounts! Pull the kids out of school! Bury the dead hooker in your trunk before the ground freezes!

 

Unless you're in the Willamette Valley...ugh

[stuffradio]

Can't believe hour 252... ice box.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Much cooler run. 522 thickness down to Olympia, 518 Bellingham. Day 8 - 500mb. Awfully close Just need the trough to dig another 200 miles to the south-southwest. It's the closest run yet to a really cold air mass dropping south over us for early November. Snow on this run throughout eastern Washington/Columbia Basin especially north of Pasco. Real close to a backdoor shot via the Gorge on this run. I think it's just exciting enough to see this possibility on most models and it's not even November. Perhaps we could see something similar to the modified blast and big east wind storm comparable to the Veteran's Day event back in 2014.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z!!!

 

Close your accounts! Pull the kids out of school! Bury the dead hooker in your trunk before the ground freezes!

How did you know some of us had dead hookers in our trunks? You’re scary smart!

[wx_statman]

Interesting wind profile across the airport right now. The ASOS sensor, on the NW side of the airport grounds was reporting WNW winds @ 8 mph at 9:35. Meanwhile at my work, by the eastern end of the runways, a steady east wind @ 10-15 mph continues.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

 

I really can't believe how the models are shaping up for the possible cold snap in early November.  This could rival 1935, but just a few days later.  As I mentioned last night major cold snaps beginning in early November are pretty much unheard of.  The best comparisons are probably from late October.  That timing is pretty crucial, because the late October cold snaps in neutral or cold ENSO seasons always lead to something good during the winter...often VERY good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Interesting wind profile across the airport right now. The ASOS sensor, on the NW side of the airport grounds was reporting WNW winds @ 8 mph at 9:35. Meanwhile at my work, by the eastern end of the runways, a steady east wind @ 10-15 mph continues.

I think there's often a sharp line like that where the easterlies surface in that area especially when the PDX-TTD gradient is flat. Gusty east winds out here near west Gresham.

[snow_wizard]

How did you know some of us had dead hookers in our trunks? You’re scary smart!

 

I know...I feel like I've been outed.

[wx_statman]

I think there's often a sharp line like that where the easterlies surface in that area especially when the PDX-TTD gradient is flat. Gusty east winds out here near west Gresham.

I’ve had that suspicion too. It’s cool seeing it in action.

[snow_wizard]

This is actually one of the coldest places tonight...at least according to the observations from the major stations.  Currently 44.

[Gradient Keeper]

I’ve had that suspicion too. It’s cool seeing it in action.

Fascinating microclimate really and the Columbia River certainly plays a role.

[van city]

00z GFS Much cooler run. 522 thickness down to Olympia, 518 Bellingham. Day 8 - 500mb. Awfully close Just need the trough to dig another 200 miles to the south-southwest. It's the closest run yet to a really cold air mass dropping south over us for early November. Snow on this run throughout eastern Washington/Columbia Basin especially north of Pasco. Real close to a backdoor shot via the Gorge on this run. I think it's just exciting enough to see this possibility on most models and it's not even November. Perhaps we could see something similar to the modified blast and big east wind storm comparable to the Veteran's Day event back in 2014.

 

The GEM looks good too.