November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

That band of moisture from the coast is sliding south of King County.   It will not be moving northward much.

 

Pretty clear now it's going to hit King County.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12z Euro plays with a colder pattern for us again days 7-10. Maybe the Thanksgiving believers will end up being on to something after all. Timing wise it seems unlikely, though.

Low goes through bomb cyclogenesis down by Crescent City while Arctic air blasts in from the east/north. Sounds good.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty clear now it's going to hit King County.

 

It sure looks that way.  It's showing as snow on the radar too.  Could be a quick inch very easily.

[snow_wizard]

We'll always have 1977 

 

1977 wasn't half bad up here either.  I still remember how abnormally cold that was.

[Geos]

That band of moisture from the coast is sliding south of King County.   It will not be moving northward much.

 

Looks more ENE or NE movement to me. All be it slow. 

[Geos]

 

Closer look:

 

 

 

Wow moisture hanging around until 5pm. Might see more accumulation after all.

[snow_wizard]

12z Euro plays with a colder pattern for us again days 7-10. Maybe the Thanksgiving believers will end up being on to something after all. Timing wise it seems unlikely, though.

 

If you believe in the LRC late November is a good bet.  We have had 3 nearly identical troughs since late September at 3 week intervals.

[Front Ranger]

It sure looks that way.  It's showing as snow on the radar too.  Could be a quick inch very easily.

 

Could be right as the Seahawks game kicks off. Too bad it's during peak heating.

[wxmet]

It definitely will come down as snow as that's what's happening downtown now. 

[TT-SEA]

[Geos]

Hanging onto flurries at 33 degrees.

 

Tim has all kinds of snow.

[Phil]

I’m going to need a reminder why we are queuing the jaws music?

Subsequent removal of AAM upstream via EAMT displaces mass and amplifies the NPAC High/slows the Pacific Jet. Can result in anticyclonic wavebreaking/-EPO and weaken the PV down the road.

[Front Ranger]

 

It definitely will come down as snow as that's what's happening downtown now. 

 

 

Poor folks going to the game are going to be just MISERABLE.

[Jesse]

 

Looks cold wet and nasty.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty clear now it's going to hit King County.

 

I don't think its really going to "hit" King County.

 

The southern portion is sliding by south of King County now and the western portion is sort of morphing and weakening as the low in SW WA sinks to the southeast.  

[Front Ranger]

Subsequent removal of AAM upstream via EAMT displaces mass and amplifies the NPAC High/slows the Pacific Jet. Can result in anticyclonic wavebreaking/-EPO and weaken the PV down the road.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks cold wet and nasty.

 

Today meets my snow standards a little better.   It is cold and wet though.   Too sloppy to be really good snow.   It starts melting when it lets up.  

[wxmet]

Band is holding together well as it moves eastward. 

[Blizzard777]

35 still in Federal Way and awaiting the Band of moisture. Almost on top of us...hoping for hour of white stuff

 

Jim

[Kayla]

12z Euro plays with a colder pattern for us again days 7-10. Maybe the Thanksgiving believers will end up being on to something after all. Timing wise it seems unlikely, though.

 

Definitely a lot of potential there at day 10.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think its really going to "hit" King County.

 

The southern portion is sliding by south of King County now and the western portion is sort of morphing and weakening as the low in SW WA sinks to the southeast.  

 

Ok. Radar is filling in just west of King County now...

[TT-SEA]

Poor folks going to the game are going to be just MISERABLE.

 

My guess is that it will drying up during the game.    Its 37 at UW with a dewpoint of 34 right now.     

 

I don't see any meaningful snow falling downtown.   I would bet it will be either by drizzling or dry during the game.   Its not like the stadium is on a hill. 

 

 

[Geos]

Flakes are building back up.

 

[Front Ranger]

Tim is doubling down on one of the more epic short term busts in recent memory.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is doubling down on one of the more epic short term busts in recent memory.

 

Makes no sense.

 

What busted?  

 

Are you talking about maybe some wet sloppy snowflakes in the air before the game?   

 

Look at the coastal radar as well... not much to it.

 

[snow_wizard]

This incoming band has big potential.  I'm seeing some signs it may stall over King County as evidenced by the precip up around Seattle not showing signs of northward movement.

[Front Ranger]

Makes no sense.

 

What busted?  

 

Your downplaying of the band of precip moving in on King County.

[ShawniganLake]

Drizzly?

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah...SEA has a tendency to pwn Portland in November events.

 

Yeah we don't do well in November. I think the last notable event here was November 19 2003 when we got that really impressive cold front. 

 

Good read:

https://www.weather.gov/media/wrh/online_publications/talite/talite0412.pdf

 

"Cold fronts pass across the Pacific Northwest with increasing frequency during the month of November, but few in recorded history have had the intensity of the frontal passage of 19 November 2003. This cold front was marked by a nearly 20F degree temperature difference across the frontal zone, deep frontal trough and sharp wind shift. Heavy rain fell in advance of the front below the 6000 foot melting level. After the surface front passed, moderate to heavy stratiform precipitation continued, a rarity for cold fronts in the Pacific Northwest, and precipitation turned to snow all the way to the floor of the Northern Willamette Valley near sea level (Map1). Large, wet, "silver dollar" sized, conglomerate snow flakes fell in the Portland and Vancouver metro areas in one of the earliest snows ever recorded (Photo 1)."

[TT-SEA]

Your downplaying of the band of precip moving in on King County.

 

Yeah... because its not that impressive and its at a bad time of the day.     

 

I am sure West Seattle and Queen Anne will see some wet snow for a little while but its not like all of Seattle will be transformed into magical winter wonderland.   

[TT-SEA]

Drizzly?

 

Not here.   I am at 1,100 feet.   

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah... because its not that impressive and its at a bad time of the day.

 

I am sure West Seattle and Queen Anne will see some wet snow for a little while but its not like all of Seattle will be transformed into magical winter wonderland.

Seattle is the next Duluth

[Jesse]

Yeah... because its not that impressive and its at a bad time of the day.

 

I am sure West Seattle and Queen Anne will see some wet snow for a little while but its not like all of Seattle will be transformed into magical winter wonderland.

Such a small, bitter man at moments like this

[TT-SEA]

Your downplaying of the band of precip moving in on King County.

 

Does this look impressive?

 

[TT-SEA]

Such a small, bitter man at moments like this

 

Things just get overplayed here sometimes in the heat of the moment.  

 

Its not like there is arctic air in place.  

 

But there will be snow in places of course.   

[wx_statman]

Picture from Sequim this morning, via the NWS. Another 2" fell there today, following a similar amount on Friday. 

[Deweydog]

Flash freeze!!!

[Jesse]

Things just get overplayed here sometimes in the heat of the moment.  

 

Its not like there is arctic air in place.  

 

But there will be snow in places of course.   

 

You just need to calm down and let the mossy idiots enjoy their slop.

[bainbridgekid]

Snow has really started to pick up here in MLT in the last few minutes.

 

Too warm for it to stick anymore, but the flakes are coming down well enough to make it very pretty.

[TT-SEA]

You just need to calm down and let the mossy idiots enjoy their slop.

 

 

I would love a snowy wonderland for the Seahawks game as much as anyone else.   Just too warm now.