November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[DareDuck]

Freezing rain in Bend. Our cars are coated in ice right now. Fortunately roads are warmer right now.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah Jim keeps talking about lack of low pressure in the GOA... EURO solves that problem!

 

We'll see.  The GFS keeps all of the GOA lows transitory in nature. 

[BLI snowman]

Felt like there was a bit of a downslope component today.

 

Yes, it was a relatively warm day aloft. Without a super well-developed low level cold pool to draw rom, I guess that's to be expected.

[Jesse]

Yes, it was a relatively warm day aloft. Without a super well-developed low level cold pool to draw rom, I guess that's to be expected.

I think it was driven by the nature of the gradients today too. Cold pool notwithstanding.

[TT-SEA]

Well, I learned something new today. Sounds like an alien world compared to here.

 

I should have had a time lapse set up today to illustrate our alien world. 

 

The crusty layer of snow stayed solid in my yard all day with a temp near 50 and a dewpoint in the 20s.   

 

Then the rain band moved in... the temp fell to 45 and the dewpoint went up to 39 with some very light rain.   All the snow in the yard has disappeared since 4 p.m.   That is the related to the dewpoint going above freezing because the temp has been falling.  

[MossMan]

A lovely drive to the Tri Cities and back today...even though it was 40 degrees near Cle Elum (the first pic) the trees were still caked in snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Super exciting 00z GFS run!

[MossMan]

Super exciting 00z GFS run!

Figured it was action packed by the amount of posts this evening haha!

[Phil]

ECMWF seasonal is troughy every month this winter (in the PNW) except December, which is warm/ridgy.

 

December

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/03CBB085-ADF9-4775-A287-7C57348831ED_zpsuhwusfps.jpg

 

January

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BF355D6-FBC8-47D1-87F2-24F1D799BF42_zpshxn2rmdr.jpg

 

February

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FD5B5A0C-CAC4-4AF2-B8A5-1FAD28718CE8_zpsmiw6avir.jpg

 

March

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57CCCCD8-6F73-40D5-B195-842069CDD590_zps2izngwoy.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

That December forecast doesn't seem to follow a weak Nina pattern much... hmmm

[Phil]

JMA seasonal is similar with the progression, but has noticeably more -NAO which keeps the trough axis farther west.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/11FA27F1-BC3B-461B-8B05-B6219E3CC30B_zps6kzquml4.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/74CCC1D7-02D8-4D49-AE44-BB5572B7FF81_zpsb4xarxhz.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FE3414B6-C5B7-4DBB-970A-2EB5993E56A2_zpsnogom92r.jpg

[Phil]

That December forecast doesn't seem to follow a weak Nina pattern much... hmmm

Intraseasonal variability..ENSO doesn't constrain the entire system.

[Deweydog]

We're screwed.

[Phil]

This is an old-fashioned east-based Niña. Haven't seen one of these in decades.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's finally looking like there may be some rain on the way tonight. It's been pretty dry these past few days, I'm looking forward to the active pattern coming up. Next to a good snowfall not much beats a good November storm in this climate.

 

[Phil]

It's finally looking like there may be some rain on the way tonight. It's been pretty dry these past few days, I'm looking forward to the active pattern coming up. Next to a good snowfall not much beats a good November storm in this climate.

 

Trying to give Tim a panic attack?

[Gradient Keeper]

That's an a**-load of rain

[snow_wizard]

That's an a**-load of rain

 

I'm not totally sold it will be that wet.  A lot of the stuff is coming down from the NW.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not totally sold it will be that wet.  A lot of the stuff is coming down from the NW.

 

No one should be, considering that's a map going out to hour 384. 

[stuffradio]

00Z Ensembles say Operational rain is out to lunch

[snow_wizard]

00Z Ensembles say Operational rain is out to lunch

 

The ensembles seem to be doing away with any serious cold threat for a while.  I had targeted late November as a likely window, but it may take a bit longer than that.  Quite ironically it appears SEA will actually get their first freeze later than normal this year in spite of the historically chilly max temps and snow they got recently.  I was pretty disappointed we never got a freeze here out of the cold snap either.  Just terrible luck with too many clouds and then too much wind.  At least I got my first freeze out of the way quite a while back.

 

The big deal is the GOA pressure looks to remain mostly high over the next two weeks, with a few short interludes of lower pressure.

[TT-SEA]

Trying to give Tim a panic attack?

 

Hardly... I want the ski resorts open for Thanksgiving weekend.    November needs to be November!  

[TT-SEA]

The ensembles seem to be doing away with any serious cold threat for a while.  I had targeted late November as a likely window, but it may take a bit longer than that.  Quite ironically it appears SEA will actually get their first freeze later than normal this year in spite of the historically chilly max temps and snow they got recently.  I was pretty disappointed we never got a freeze here out of the cold snap either.  Just terrible luck with too many clouds and then too much wind.  At least I got my first freeze out of the way quite a while back.

 

The big deal is the GOA pressure looks to remain mostly high over the next two weeks, with a few short interludes of lower pressure.

 

My seasonal snowfall total is up to 4 inches now... but still has not gone below freezing here.     Could be quite a long wait now.  

[stuffradio]

The ensembles seem to be doing away with any serious cold threat for a while.  I had targeted late November as a likely window, but it may take a bit longer than that.  Quite ironically it appears SEA will actually get their first freeze later than normal this year in spite of the historically chilly max temps and snow they got recently.  I was pretty disappointed we never got a freeze here out of the cold snap either.  Just terrible luck with too many clouds and then too much wind.  At least I got my first freeze out of the way quite a while back.

 

The big deal is the GOA pressure looks to remain mostly high over the next two weeks, with a few short interludes of lower pressure.

I was targeting the ~22nd for a while too, but it seems that won't happen right now... much can change in 14 days though!

[Phil]

My seasonal snowfall total is up to 4 inches now... but still has not gone below freezing here. Could be quite a long wait now.

What? Even after two months of troughing at 1500ft?

 

Even us swamp folk are gonna freeze over this weekend.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ensembles seem to be doing away with any serious cold threat for a while.  I had targeted late November as a likely window, but it may take a bit longer than that.  Quite ironically it appears SEA will actually get their first freeze later than normal this year in spite of the historically chilly max temps and snow they got recently.  I was pretty disappointed we never got a freeze here out of the cold snap either.  Just terrible luck with too many clouds and then too much wind.  At least I got my first freeze out of the way quite a while back.

 

The big deal is the GOA pressure looks to remain mostly high over the next two weeks, with a few short interludes of lower pressure.

 

Seems pretty crazy that this area ended up with a hard freeze before your area. It takes a lot to get a freeze here this early. There hadn't been any sub-40F lows this fall until the 2nd when it fell to 32F during the snowfall then it dropped to 28.9F on the 3rd. It hasn't been below freezing since.

[Jesse]

What? Even after two months of troughing at 1500ft?

 

Even us swamp folk are gonna freeze over this weekend.

His area has always been suspiciously immune to freezes. I think just about everyone else who posts in this area has seen one.

[Phil]

His area has always been suspiciously immune to freezes. I think just about everyone else who posts in this area has seen one.

I'm almost certain he's seen a freeze, at least based on the nature of the snow accumulation in his pictures.

[DareDuck]

Big miss by the models. None showed zr in central OR until last night and even then it was only supposed to be this morning. Still 30 and raining, could get bad if this continues all night.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=269854

[TT-SEA]

What? Even after two months of troughing at 1500ft?

 

Even us swamp folk are gonna freeze over this weekend.

 

 

So many corrections here... I can teach Phil about nature for brief moment.   

 

1,075 feet... not 1,500 feet.

 

There has not been two solid months of troughing either... we have had lots of warm days too.

 

But I digress... the important factor is that there is more mixing up here and this area doesn't do well with radiational cooling.    Similar to SEA which is up on a hill there.   SEA has not gone below freezing yet either.

 

My area is very prone to offshore flow which tends to come after a trough has departed and skies have cleared and sheltered valley locations are freezing.

 

You also thought it would be colder out here on warm summer days... but we all pointed out that relatively small elevation changes have no bearing on summer temperatures and many times its actually warmer up here.

 

I can take a picture of roses still blooming today.   It has not gone below freezing here... but its been very close though as you can tell by all my snow pictures.  

[TT-SEA]

His area has always been suspiciously immune to freezes. I think just about everyone else who posts in this area has seen one.

 

Most everyone else posting in this area is in a valley location.     Jim just barely squeaked in one a couple weeks ago... and he always has a freeze before me.  He did not go below freezing with last cold trough.   

[TT-SEA]

51 here this morning.    

 

Rain has only totaled .04 since yesterday.   This is a pretty nice type of troughy pattern out here.   Its warm and the flow is generally offshore and the rain bands pass quickly.

 

Huge difference out here between this pattern and the pattern shown for next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 here this morning.    

 

Rain has only totaled .04 since yesterday.   This is a pretty nice type of troughy pattern out here.   Its warm and the flow is generally offshore and the rain bands pass quickly.

 

Huge difference out here between this pattern and the pattern shown for next week.

 

44 with rain here. Almost half an inch the past 24 hours. 

 

We have had 5 freezes, but nothing below 30 yet. 

[TT-SEA]

44 with rain here. Almost half an inch the past 24 hours. 

 

We have had 5 freezes, but nothing below 30 yet. 

 

Your area is the opposite of my area when it comes to offshore flow.   You have much less mixing on those type of nights.    That lack of outflow down there is probably the biggest overall difference between our foothill locations.    

[High Desert Mat!]

I'm working in Madras today and it's been snowing for the last two hours with about two inches in the ground.

[Timmy]

I'm working in Madras today and it's been snowing for the last two hours with about two inches in the ground.

pretty strange to see snow in madras and warm springs but zr in redmond and bend. probably not a common occurance.

[Jesse]

pretty strange to see snow in madras and warm springs but zr in redmond and bend. probably not a common occurance.

Bend and Redmond changed back over to snow this morning as well. Colder air aloft has moved back in and it looks like their surface cold was preserved.

 

Something similar happened here last January 8-9.

[Jesse]

Most everyone else posting in this area is in a valley location. Jim just barely squeaked in one a couple weeks ago... and he always has a freeze before me. He did not go below freezing with last cold trough.

Seems like the people who live at a similar elevation have seen freezes too. Timmy, Andrew.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like the people who live at a similar elevation have seen freezes too. Timmy, Andrew.

You should know about outflow mixing here.   I can forgive Phil.

 

The Snoqualmie station in the valley has had one freeze... on Halloween morning.

 

It was 34 here that morning with a weak east breeze.

 

 

Definitely... 34 here and 39 at SEA. Way cooler than previous mornings.