Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 PDX finally topped 60 degrees at midnight.@12:58 AM near West Gresham it is 60.3 here with torrential rain. Very tropical. MUCAPE around 50-100J/kg, PWATS 1.1", lift with the frontal boundary, and 850mb flow SW @40kts is helping with that. Very tropical rains occurring. The activity this evening and tonight has not entirely all been low topped with at times tops 19k to 24k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Happy Thanksgiving you "SOB's", I'm grateful for all the knowledgeable folks we have here and who contribute regularly 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 .78" of rain since midnight and sitting at 57 degrees. Up to 10.21" of rain on the month. With 2-3" likely by the end of the month we'll end up about 125% of normal, give or take. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Ensembles still aren't that great. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 No improvements yet with GFS/Ensembles(but they haven't worsened either) or CMC. EURO improving, but out on its own at the moment. We shall see what 12z runs today reveal. [Model Countdown]12z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes12z CMC in 3 hours 20 minutes12z ECMWF in 4 hours 56 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Here comes the rain again, falling on my head like a memory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Still raining...still warm. 55 degrees. Silvana flooded yesterday due to the Stilly spilling its banks, had to take another route home from work. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Woke up to a balmy 53.6F. Nice break in the rain up here for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Pretty disappointing how watered down the trough for early next week is now. I thought it would be a MAJOR snow producer for the passes. Now maybe advisory totals? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Pretty disappointing how watered down the trough for early next week is now. I thought it would be a MAJOR snow producer for the passes. Now maybe advisory totals?Wïnter is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Wïnter is over.Winter hasn't even started, you jokester! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Winter hasn't even started, you jokester!Wïnter has though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Starting to get a December 2012 feel Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 WOW 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 ^Wow, now that's putting the cart before the horse. ^ Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Andrew how dare you have an opinion that isnt of the snowpocalypse one! Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Speaking of ENSO... this has become much less of an east-based Nina in the last week. Water warming off the PNW coast as well. Here is the current SSTA map: Short term, wind-driven SSTA variations don't say much about the long term evolution of the ENSO system. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Andrew how dare you have an opinion that isnt of the snowpocalypse one!uangrybro? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Andrew how dare you have an opinion that isnt of the snowpocalypse one! I apologize for my sacrilege Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 The western troughing currently depicted by the modeling won't be anything special in the PNW, and IMO, it's likely that more ridging/SW flow will follow during the second week of December. This is a fake-out that will probably verify as a 3-4 day stretch of seasonally chilly weather followed by more warmth. I still believe stuff will start getting interesting towards the holidays, with a major -PNA/-EPO episode likely in January along with an amplified cold west/warm east type pattern. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 WOW The Canadian is starting to look a lot like the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 12Z GFS operational looks like it agrees with what Phil says. If you enjoy warmth, you will love the long range, otherwise it will be depressing for you. On another note, the 00Z Nov 23 teleconnection forecast has hardcore +EPO almost the whole way through except 1 or 2 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Starting to get a December 2012 feel-30c over Seattle!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I apologize for my sacrilegeU’ve got a friend in madbro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 U’ve got a friend in madbro. Good to have friends. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 -30c over Seattle!!!Wrong year, buddy. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 WOW GOOD post. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 U’ve got a friend in madbro.STOP ATTACKING ME!! 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Under the "just for fun, not a forecast" category, thought I would post this JMA for Christmas Eve. Maybe in line with Phil saying around the holidays we could get blasted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 STOP ATTACKING ME!!U mad brodemagio? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Under the "just for fun, not a forecast" category, thought I would post this JMA for Christmas Eve. Maybe in line with Phil saying around the holidays we could get blasted. justforfun.jpg Well I'll be. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Wrong year, buddy. ... 2011? If that's the case we're screwed. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I honestly believe there's a 75% chance that January 2018 will replace December 2008 as the big kahuna of the 21st century. A number of positive signs are showing up. Tail end of the +QBO50 is ideal for easterly shear, deep layer easterly momentum deposition above the zero wind line as the -QBO downwells above 50mb, east-based Niña keeping the NPAC anticyclone near the GOA, weakening solar wind = less destruction of O^3 in the high latitude stratosphere. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Good to have friends. We know all about that don’t we Andrew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Up to 0.97" of rain since midnight. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 We know all about that don’t we Andrew. Well, that isn't very nice. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I honestly believe there's a 75% chance that January 2018 will replace December 2008 as the big kahuna of the 21st century. A number of positive signs are showing up. Tail end of the +QBO50 is ideal for easterly shear, deep layer easterly momentum deposition above the zero wind line as the -QBO downwells above 50mb, east-based Niña keeping the NPAC anticyclone near the GOA, weakening solar wind = less destruction of O^3 in the high latitude stratosphere.Don't do this to yourself again, man . . . Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Well, that isn't very nice.I’ll be urfriendbro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 We know all about that don’t we Andrew. Oh yes. Amazing how cold the CFS is for Jan-March Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 I’ll be urfriendbro.Currently have a full plate right now. I'm taking apps though. 25 dollar app fee. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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