November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Now we just need that Siberian air to migrate quickly over to our side of the pole.

[Timmy]

Pretty clear retrogression signal there in the long term as well though. The ensemble is a little later in the timing of things compared to the operational which actually makes a little more sense. 

looks pretty cool for the SE around the 8th, I will be in Charlotte for an NFL game then.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty clear retrogression signal there in the long term as well though. The ensemble is a little later in the timing of things compared to the operational which actually makes a little more sense. 

 

Yeah, towards the end there is a hint of retrogression. If you're really looking for it. 

 

Not sure it's enough to read much into yet, though.

[Kayla]

Yeah, towards the end there is a hint of retrogression. If you're really looking for it. 

 

Not sure it's enough to read much into yet, though.

 

When is it ever 10+ days out?? Tis the life of a weather nerd... 

[Kayla]

looks pretty cool for the SE around the 8th, I will be in Charlotte for an NFL game then.

 

Nice, might need to bring your mitties!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Vodka cold coming last week of December. Book it!  

[Front Ranger]

When is it ever 10+ days out?? Tis the life of a weather nerd... 

 

Ha, I hear ya. Just calling it like I see it!

[Front Ranger]

Vodka cold coming last week of December. Book it!

 

Tequila warmth until then! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tequila warmth until then! 

 

Kill the Worm

[Jbolin]

Yup, unfortunately. That mega strong 947mb low shoved the ridge a bit further.

 

The east will like it, **** 'em 

[Phil]

Now we just need that Siberian air to migrate quickly over to our side of the pole.

Or, break the PV, and release the entire column of Arctic air across the NH.

 

The PV is actually more vulnerable to attack in Siberia than it would be on our side of the globe, thanks to East-Asian wave attacks/Himalayan torques.

[Phil]

The global SST anomaly is down to 0.19C on the 1971-2000 baseline, according to OISSTv2. IIRC, that's the coldest since 2013. Also, the SH is down to -0.01C, which might be the coldest since 2008.

 

http://pamola.um.maine.edu/fcst_frames/GFS-025deg/DailySummary/GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED2_SST_anom.png

[Timmy Supercell]

Snowing but it is a little above freezing, nothing sticking.

 

Earlier it started out with freezing fog in the low 20's. Now 35 degrees.

[Phil]

Using the equatorial SOI alternative (EPAC to Indo instead of Darwin to Tahiti), you can decipher the east-based nature of the current La Niña system.

 

Doesn't fit the standard 21st century La Niña at all. Low standard deviation between the SOI and the equatorial SOI.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3AA30BF6-375C-4BD0-A5CE-35356B62355C_zps2oylajrc.gif

[Phil]

The WHEM system state has reversed itself since March.

 

March 3, 2017:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7A31A165-6A2F-4EFB-984B-0E4DBB76E6E1_zps2gm5spsx.png

 

November 28, 2017:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/56596A92-9F70-4A0B-860B-3782623E08BC_zpsnfpo0xgi.png

[Phil]

This is what happens when the PV gets stuck in Eurasia for too long. There's a 50/50 chance we achieve the follow-up wave-2 around Christmas and take out the vortex completely...right as the fun is beginning in the PNW. Woah..

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[Timmy Supercell]

Flakes got huge a few moments ago. Pictures don't show it well but they were each 1+ inch sized. lol

 

And forgot to set the time to PST on my camera. I'll do that now

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/wvcs9i.jpg

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/2l8gnxt.jpg

[Phil]

This is what happens when the PV gets stuck in Eurasia for too long.

 

There's a 50/50 chance we achieve the follow-up wave-2 around Christmas and take out the vortex completely...right as the fun is beginning in the PNW. Woah..

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

If we achieve the wave-2 follow up/SSW during the Holidays, it would be the first time since Jan/Feb 1989 that a SSW was timed *perfectly* with the tropical/upstream forcing progression to focus the trough solely in the western USA.

 

Obviously, 1988/89 is different to 2017 in a number of ways, however, if anything, the system state today favors stronger blocking on the low frequency. So..this is gonna be an interesting one, regardless of how it turns out.

[HighlandExperience]

If we achieve the wave-2 follow up/SSW during the Holidays, it would be the first time since Jan/Feb 1989 that a SSW was timed *perfectly* with the tropical/upstream forcing progression to focus the trough solely in the western USA.

 

Obviously, 1988/89 is different to 2017 in a number of ways, however, if anything, the system state today favors stronger blocking on the low frequency. So..this is gonna be an interesting one, regardless of how it turns out.

12-15 inches of snow for Seattle metro.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12-15 inches of snow for Seattle metro.

95 inches in my backyard. BRING IT!!!

 

...

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

Hey Phil...

 

When can I fire-up my the certified SnowWizard winter tracking system again??... I have shut it down due to no real reason to use it lately. It rocks but dang it sucks the juice. I hear DJ Droppin also has one of these on order but is tricking it out some major sound gear to crank the tunes during his late night tracking binges.  BRING IT!!!

[Geos]

Really pouring out there today. 

 

Sounds like Mount Agung is on the brink of a major eruption in the very near future.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/bali-volcano-live-news-latest-mount-agung-eruption-updates-a3702391.html

[Phil]

Really pouring out there today.

 

Sounds like Mount Agung is on the brink of a major eruption in the very near future.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/bali-volcano-live-news-latest-mount-agung-eruption-updates-a3702391.html

I'm not a vulcanologist, but the "big explosion as soon as Wednesday" story sounds a bit hyped up.

 

Based on Mt. Agung's eruption history, the "explosive" eruptions typically occur several weeks after the initial eruption (but not always). So, despite knowing little to nothing about the dynamics within Agung myself, history may suggest that more explosive eruptions could begin in December or January..though I'm definitely out of my league here.

[Geos]

I'm not a vulcanologist, but the "big explosion as soon as Wednesday" story sounds a bit hyped up.

 

Based on Mt. Agung's eruption history, the "explosive" eruptions typically occur several weeks after the initial eruption (but not always). So, despite knowing little to nothing about the dynamics within Agung myself, history may suggest that more explosive eruptions could begin in December or January..though I'm definitely out of my league here.

 

There's definitely some strong signs that the volcano is at a critical stage. Evidence of steam is suggesting groundwater is getting heated as more magma gets higher up in the volcano. The top magma chamber is probably getting full since there has been some erupting the last few days. Maybe slightly hyped, but it definitely is a dangerous situation for people living there.

Another source: https://www.livescience.com/61040-mount-agung-eruption-imminent.html

[Deweydog]

Well hopefully the eruption will be big and deadly. We needs us some chilly summer.

[MossMan]

Well hopefully the eruption will be big and deadly. We needs us some chilly summer.

But I won't be able to jetski as often.  

[Deweydog]

But I won't be able to jetski as often.

Speed skating can be just as exhilarating!

[Timmy]

The 18z is taking it’s sweet time today.

[MikeInEverett]

The GFS is broken!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No major retrogression on the 18z, but one feature I do like is that the models have backed away from dragging a weak warm front across the area early next week as the ridge builds in. I was worried that could disrupt some of the low level cold heading into the inversion.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GFS is broken!!!

 

 

[WeatherArchive]

Let's just hope that  Krakatoa doesn't go from this MT Agung causing a chain reaction (down stream?). If Krakatoa goes there is a good chance the US East Coast will be wiped out by tsunami and while that won't effect us over here in the west directly the dire economic situation would be a logistical nightmare and a lot longer lasting.

 

You'll be amazed at how far away things can be effected or even felt.

 

The Scotts Milles Earthquake near Silverton was felt all the way down in Paradise California (Where we were living) at around 5:30am and shook my bed which I thought was my Dad shaking it but he was woken up by it too which we went to the TV and found out about the earthquake in Oregon and was like ??????. Why did we feel it down here too then?

 

I remember it still being dark.   I was young and foolish. Jumped out of bed and ran to the window during that earthquake to see anything.  Boy I'm glad it wasn't a touch stronger but the ridges and mountains somehow kept it amplified all the way down.  Reno NV even had skyscrapers move slightly and dishes rattle.

 

When the 1989 earthquake in San Francisco happened back in Paradise Ca  (daytime earthquake) it caused many pools to slosh back and forth and chandlers to swing on it's own accord.  The phone lines were jammed all day and couldn't get a call out even if it was an emergency.  That entire day the phone system went out of order due to overload.  That would be like today having the internet be down and no banking/checking.etc since stores rely on online crap even if you don't.

[HighlandExperience]

Let's just hope that Krakatoa doesn't go from this MT Agung causing a chain reaction (down stream?). If Krakatoa goes there is a good chance the US East Coast will be wiped out by tsunami and while that won't effect us over here directly the dire economic situation would be a logistical nightmare and a lot longer lasting.

Krakatoa is in the Pacific though.

[DareDuck]

Krakatoa is in the Pacific though.

Confused me too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Confused me too.

 

Yeah maybe the east coast of Sumatra. 

[catnip]

[MossMan]

There's always a chance that one -20c member could be right!

Arctic plunge starting the 10th and continuing for at least a week...That shade of blue is my favorite! 

[High Desert Mat!]

There's always a chance that one -20c member could be right!

Ya 2%!!!

[Jesse]

Well hopefully the eruption will be big and deadly. We needs us some chilly summer.

That one bothered you huh?

[Deweydog]

That one bothered you huh?

U mad?