November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

U mad?

No. But I’m sure that is your intention.

[snow_wizard]

That was one hell of a 12z run today.  The block being shown was gargantuan.  So here is what we have so far in the possible good outcome column.

 

1. 0z ECMWF control model

2. 6z GFS

3. 12z GFS

4. Some GFS ensemble members on every one of the last 4 runs.

 

For now the realistic outcome for the next two weeks is a strong inversion / chilly for week 2.

[snow_wizard]

 

 

 

Hey Phil...

 

When can I fire-up my the certified SnowWizard winter tracking system again??... I have shut it down due to no real reason to use it lately. It rocks but dang it sucks the juice. I hear DJ Droppin also has one of these on order but is tricking it out some major sound gear to crank the tunes during his late night tracking binges.  BRING IT!!!

 

 

Hilarious!

[Deweydog]

No. But I’m sure that is your intention.

The fact you responded at all speaks volumes.

 

Kooler summerz would be a nice change of pace.

[snow_wizard]

The fact you responded at all speaks volumes.

 

Kooler summerz would be a nice change of pace.

 

Twould be udderly kool!

[Jesse]

The fact you responded at all speaks volumes.

 

Kooler summerz would be a nice change of pace.

Yeah true, you dont generally see people responding to posts directly referencing their comments.

[Deweydog]

Yeah true, you dont generally see people responding to posts directly referencing their comments.

It was most definitely a playful poke at past sanctimony about the perils of warmth in a warming world but I have no idea what comment you're referring to.

[Jesse]

It was most definitely a playful poke at past sanctimony about the perils of warmth in a warming world but I have no idea what comment you're referring to.

I made a joking comment about it happeining in time to affect next summer. Maybe your comment was just a coincidence.

[Deweydog]

I made a joking comment about it happeining in time to affect next summer. Maybe your comment was just a coincidence.

Sorry, you're screwed for next summer. We have two pleasant Julys to pay for.

[Jesse]

Sorry, you're screwed for next summer. We have a pleasant July to pay for.

No doubt.

[wx_statman]

I'm currently reading "Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded" by Simon Winchester. Had to throw that in there with the Krakatoa talk today. Interesting stuff! 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm currently reading "Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded" by Simon Winchester. Had to throw that in there with the Krakatoa talk today. Interesting stuff!

I was just running up the steps barefoot and experienced one Hellacious Krakatoa... it sucked!!!

[Guest Dome Buster]

Wow. This year is looking very similar to 2008, November notwithstanding. Good signature developing dec 12-15th.

[Timmy]

Wow. This year is looking very similar to 2008, November notwithstanding. Good signature developing dec 12-15th.

If that happens I will buy a legit weather station. I would love to have had some stats for here during that time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ladies and Gentlemen, are you ready for yet another night of captivating model riding? I'll be your captain for tonight and your co-pilot will be the Gorton's Fisherman. Please, make sure your seat belts are fastened and trays are in the upright position. The movie for tonight will be Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer. On 00z runs this evening we'll be looking for the ridge of high pressure to cruise across the North Pacific eventually slowing its progress becoming a block and setting up somewhere near 126-130 W. After day 8-10 we'll be looking for any signs of retrogression with the block backing away offshore to the northwest into the Gulf of Alaska opening the door for very cold, arctic northeasterly flow to invade Washington and Oregon. We shall see how it all unfolds.

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ladies and Gentlemen, are you ready for yet another night of captivating model riding? I'll be your captain for tonight and your co-pilot will be the Gorton's Fisherman. Please, make sure your seat belts are fastened and trays are in the upright position. The movie for tonight will be Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer. On 00z runs this evening we'll be looking for the ridge of high pressure to cruise across the North Pacific eventually slowing its progress becoming a block and setting up somewhere near 126-130 W. After day 8-10 we'll be looking for any signs of retrogression with the block backing away offshore to the northwest into the Gulf of Alaska opening the door for very cold, arctic northeasterly flow to invade Washington and Oregon. We shall see how it all unfolds.

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

Will you also play some grand funk railroad?

[Gradient Keeper]

Weekend trough just a bit chillier, deeper

[Gradient Keeper]

Will you also play some grand funk railroad?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8MYsii4DZY

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4-5 VERY deep low shoves ridge further east than previous runs. This feature was much weaker on the 12z run.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison with 18z, 12z, at day 6 the block is stronger on this run.

[wx_statman]

I was just running up the steps barefoot and experienced one Hellacious Krakatoa... it sucked!!!

 

Did you *erupt* in anger??

[luvssnow_spokane]

Did you *erupt* in anger??

Yep... Blew my lid...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/168/500h_anom.na.png

[wx_statman]

Yep... Blew my lid...

 

I lava it when people do that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Konaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/192/500h_anom.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 8 Konaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/192/500h_anom.na.png

This same pattern showed up earlier today on the Euro... nice!!! BRING IT!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/240/500h_anom.na.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 9

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/216/500h_anom.na.png

East coast is going to get hammered!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Fogversion, cold pool, east winds. No retrogression on this run at least. 6z, 12z tomorrow morning will likely be different to some extent.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Fogmageddon cometh!! Prepare ... you have been warned!

[WeatherArchive]

Correction. Dad told me it's El Heirro that is the big danger point but the government plays it down for tourism.  If it goes off it will destroy the eastern seaboard with tsunami and it's not a conspiracy theory.  Right now activity is very low though in March it had some (burps)  https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/elhierro/current-activity.html

 

The only link that is not advertising crap.  All you get if you type anything like that in is adverts made for your phone.

[Farmboy]

Correction. Dad told me it's El Heirro that is the big danger point but the government plays it down for tourism. If it goes off it will destroy the eastern seaboard with tsunami and it's not a conspiracy theory. Right now activity is very low though in March it had some (burps) https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/elhierro/current-activity.html

 

The only link that is not advertising crap. All you get if you type anything like that in is adverts made for your phone.

. Actually, it's Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma island.

[Front Ranger]

Day 8 Konaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112900/192/500h_anom.na.png

 

That, good captain, is not a Kona low.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Correction. Dad told me it's El Heirro that is the big danger point but the government plays it down for tourism.  If it goes off it will destroy the eastern seaboard with tsunami and it's not a conspiracy theory.  Right now activity is very low though in March it had some (burps)  https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/elhierro/current-activity.html

 

The only link that is not advertising crap.  All you get if you type anything like that in is adverts made for your phone.

I have followed volcanoes closely for awhile. The mega tsunami story has been debunked. I fell for it too until I read what real volcanologists and geologists who studied the Canary Islands said. Good summary of the hype from a geologist here: http://www.lapalma-tsunami.com/about.html

[Timmy]

Correction. Dad told me it's El Heirro that is the big danger point but the government plays it down for tourism. If it goes off it will destroy the eastern seaboard with tsunami and it's not a conspiracy theory. Right now activity is very low though in March it had some (burps) https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/elhierro/current-activity.html

 

The only link that is not advertising crap. All you get if you type anything like that in is adverts made for your phone.

If you have to say something “is not a conspiracy theory”, then it is a conspiracy theory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm currently reading "Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded" by Simon Winchester. Had to throw that in there with the Krakatoa talk today. Interesting stuff! 

 

My ex-wife gave me that for Christmas several years back. A good read. I bought my Dad a copy for Christmas the following year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is some arctic blast into the center of the country in the long range...